MINNESOTA ENERGY-ECONOMIC INFORMATION SYSTEM

The energy-economic impact forecasting system presented here is a modular approach to both economic modeling and information systems development. A set of eleven modules--market, investment, demand, production, (input-output), employment, value added, labor force, population, household, fiscal, and ecologic--provides the data base and programming routines for simulating the state (or a substate regional) economy. An additional set of government function modules, including energy and environmental management, provides an auxiliary data base and forecasts for state and local government agencies. This series of data modules and related computer programs, locally called SIMLAB, is organized as a readily accessible regional impact simulation system.Community/Rural/Urban Development,

The Complex Hydrogeological Study of a Transboundary Aquifer Between Hungary and Romania.

In the framework of a NATO Science for Peace project involving three scientific partners, complex hydrogeological investigation and groundwater modeling of a regional transboundary aquifer between Hungary and Romania were carried out between 2000 and 2004. In order to achieve the sustainable water management of the investigated internationally shared aquifer, the main tasks of the international project were: − Development of a common data-base, − Additional field measurements, − Common interpretation of the geological and hydrogeological settings, − Creating the conceptual flow model of the transboundary aquifer, − Regional and local scale groundwater modeling using the MODFLOW, − Model simulation of different scenarios for water management purposes, − Transport modeling on local scales in order to solve contamination problems, − Review of the main results obtained from the transboundary approach in the view of the European Water Framework Directive

Dutch Experience in Irrigation Water Management Modelling

Modeling the soil-water-crop atmosphere system to improve agricultural water management in arid zones (SWATRE); Groundwater approach to drainage design in irrigated agriculture (SGMP); Computer Program for flume and weir design (FLUME 3.0); A hydrodynamic model in the design of operational controllers for water systems (MODIS/MATLAB); Decision support simulation model for water management at a regional and national scale (SIWARE); Management of water delivery systems (RIBASIM/OMIS); A water allocation, scheduling, and monitoring program (WASAM); and Irrigation agencies, farmers and computational decision support tools

Cooperative Modeling: Building Bridges Between Science And The Public

As freshwater resources become more scarce and water management becomes more contentious, new planning approaches are essential to maintain ecologic, economic, and social stability. One technique involves cooperative modeling in which scientists and stakeholders work together to develop a computer simulation model to assist in planning efforts. In the Middle Rio Grande region of New Mexico, where water management is hotly debated, a stakeholder team used a system dynamics approach to create a computer simulation model to facilitate producing a regional plan. While the model itself continues to be valuable, the process for creating the model was also valuable in helping stakeholders jointly develop understanding of and approaches to addressing complex issues. In this paper, the authors document results from post-project interviews designed to identify strengths and weaknesses of cooperative modeling; to determine if and how the model facilitated the planning process; and to solicit advice for others considering model aided planning. Modeling team members revealed that cooperative modeling did facilitate water planning. Interviewees suggested that other groups try to reach consensus on a guiding vision or philosophy for their project and recognize that cooperative modeling is time intensive. The authors also note that using cooperative modeling as a tool to build bridges between science and the public requires consistent communication about both the process and the product

Integrated simulation and optimization scheme of real-time large-scale water supply network: applied to Catalunya case study

This paper presents an integrated simulation and optimization modeling approach in order to provide the optimal configuration for large-scale water supply systems (LSWSS) in real time. Model predictive control (MPC) has been chosen to handle the complex set of objectives involved in the management of LSWSS. The computation of control strategies by MPC uses a simplified model of the network dynamics. The use of the combined approach of optimization and simulation contributes to making sure that the effect of more complex dynamics, better represented by the simulation model, may be taken into account. Coordination between simulator and optimizer works in a feedback scheme, from which both real-time interaction and extensive validation of the proposed solution have been realized using a case study based on the Catalunya regional water network.This research has been partially funded by by Project ECOCIS DPI2013-48243-C2-1-R of Spanish Ministry of Education and by EFFINET grant FP7- ICT-2012-318556 of the European Commission.Peer Reviewe

Regional-scale brine migration along vertical pathways due to CO2 injection - Part 1: The participatory modeling approach

Saltwater intrusion into potential drinking water aquifers due to the injection of CO₂ into deep saline aquifers is one of the potential hazards associated with the geological storage of CO₂. Thus, in a site selection process, models for predicting the fate of the displaced brine are required, for example, for a risk assessment or the optimization of pressure management concepts. From the very beginning, this research on brine migration aimed at involving expert and stakeholder knowledge and assessment in simulating the impacts of injecting CO₂ into deep saline aquifers by means of a participatory modeling process. The involvement exercise made use of two approaches. First, guideline-based interviews were carried out, aiming at eliciting expert and stakeholder knowledge and assessments of geological structures and mechanisms affecting CO₂-induced brine migration. Second, a stakeholder workshop including the World Café format yielded evaluations and judgments of the numerical modeling approach, scenario selection, and preliminary simulation results. The participatory modeling approach gained several results covering brine migration in general, the geological model sketch, scenario development, and the review of the preliminary simulation results. These results were included in revised versions of both the geological model and the numerical model, helping to improve the analysis of regional-scale brine migration along vertical pathways due to CO₂ injection

Evaluating Sensitivities of Economic Factors through Coupled Economics-ALMANAC Model System

Using crop models to simulate crop growth and productivity at a regional scale is a complex process designed to represent the observed impact of individual farmer decision-making on the agricultural landscape. Typically, during agricultural simulation efforts, the planting acreages have largely been based on a set of predetermined, static scenarios. In this study, we developed a system to dynamically enhance the Agricultural Land Management Alternative with Numerical Assessment Criteria (ALMANAC) crop simulation model through a two-way linkage with an economics land-use model. This coupled model approach integrated farmers’ land-use choices based on relative economic returns and produced dynamic land-use probabilities for ALMANAC simulations through a feedback loop. The coupled model approach was intercompared with static crop modeling through a historic acreage approach, and comparable accuracies were found from both modeling efforts for the 2014 growing season. Furthermore, as a proof-of-concept effort, the method was applied to evaluate the impact of two scenarios on crop simulations: major crops (maize, soybean, and wheat) intensification through price increases (e.g., market change) and incentivized grassland conservation (e.g., policy change). The results of this sensitivity study suggest that the coupled system has the capability to integrate economic factors into traditional crop simulation, allowing for insight into the impacts of changes in markets and policies on agricultural landscapes and crop yields

Multi-method Modeling Framework for Support of Integrated Water Resources Management

The existing definition of integrated water resources management (IWRM) promotes a holistic approach to water resources management practice. The IWRM deals with planning, design and operation of complex systems in order to control the quantity, quality, temporal and spatial distribution of water with the main objective of meeting human and ecological needs and providing protection from water disasters. One of the main challenges of IWRM is development of tools for operational implementation of the concept and dynamic coupling of physical and socio-economic components of water resources systems. This research examines the role of simulation in IWRM practices, analyses the advantages and limitations of existing modeling methods, and, as a result, suggests a new generic multi-method modeling framework that has the main goal to capture all structural complexities and interactions within water resources systems. Since traditional modeling methods solely do not provide sufficient support, this framework uses multi-method simulation approach to examine the co-dependence between natural resources and socio-economic environment. Designed framework consists of (i) a spatial database, (ii) a process-based model for representing the physical environment and changing conditions, and (iii) an agent-based model for representing spatially explicit socio-economic environment. The main idea behind multi-agent models is to build virtual complex systems composed of autonomous entities, which operate on local knowledge, possess limited abilities, affect and are affected by local environment, and thus enact the desired global system behavior. Based on the architecture of the generic multi-method modeling framework, an operational model is developed for the Upper Thames River basin, Southwestern Ontario, Canada. Six different experiments combine three climate and two socio-economic scenarios to analyze spatial dynamics of a complex physical-social-economic system. Obtained results present strong dependence between changes in hydrologic regime, in this case surface runoff and groundwater recharge rates, and regional socio-economic activities