Inverse modelling in wildfire spread forecasting: towards a data-driven system

Wildfires are an ecological phenomenon inherent to earth dynamics and widely spread over the globe. In addition to the environmental impact, when wildfires grow beyond controllable magnitudes, they pose a principal threat to human lives and properties. On many countries, the rural abandonment of last decades, the forest continuity growth and the Wildland Urban Interface increase are exposing entire communities and rendering them vulnerable to a major fire event. Coupled together with a global warming that seems to be enlarging and worsening wildfire-prone weather conditions, the wildfire problem is becoming a recurrent and repetitive natural hazard that is in urgent needs of research development, planning and organizational changes to minimize its impact. In this context, the thesis at hand focuses on the development, implementation and initial validation of a wildfire perimeter spread prediction model that might help emergency responders on taking sound decisions to efficiently employ resources and protect valuable assets. This forecasting model is a particular implementation of a data-driven system. That is, available data are used to improve and calibrate the spread model results with the aim of delivering a more accurate and timely forecast of the fire spread for the upcoming hours. This thesis builds up the mentioned system by increasing its complexity and tackling required improvements and adaptations on fuel characterization and wind projection on topography. Initially, a simplified proof of concept that uses front perimeter (isochrones) evolution extracted from infrared imagery of the fire is challenged with data from real-scale burning experiments conducted in Australia. Despite the positive outcome of this initial investigation, some advancements are identified to further upgrade the system. Thus, the following chapters focus on the fuel and wind sub-models together with the spread model topographic upgrade and the different mathematical algorithms and strategies necessary to conduct the data-driven process. Regarding fuels, the thesis presents an in-depth analysis of fuel characterization to be used by fire spread models. This is done by a thorough sensitivity analysis of the most commonly used fuel characterization systems. In the light of these results, a simplified model that integrates all different fuel properties is proposed to be used by the data-driven framework at hand. To properly resolve the wind interaction with the terrain and to couple it into the data-driven system, the WindNinja diagnose software is employed. However, long computational times do not allow for its integration into any data-assimilation strategy. Thus, a full interpolating framework is developed and validated to allow fast and computationally inexpensive wind field updates. This key element becomes then a cornerstone of the full data-driven approach. For the optimization process (embedded into any data-driven systems) six different mathematical algorithms were compared and evaluated. Three of them being line-search strategies and the other three being global search. It was found that the algorithm selection has an impact on the final results in terms of forecast accuracy and computing time. Finally, the overall system is verified and validated using two source of available data: (1) well characterized, homogeneous slope, medium-scale experimental fires conducted in Portugal and (2) with synthetically generated fronts reproducing a real large-scale fire. These validations were aimed at studying the overall performance, checking the system functionality and highlighting possible flaws and necessary improvements if the tool is to be deployed in a real emergency situation. Whereas the results show the potential of the approach by delivering an acceptable forecast usable for emergency responders, further validations are required to check the robustness and reliability of the tool before using it in operational situations.Els incendis forestals són, al cap i a la, un fenomen ecològic inherent a la dinàmica de la terra i àmpliament escampats per tot el món. A més de l'impacte ambiental, quan els incendis forestals excedeixen, en magnitud i intensitat, la capacitat d’extinció, representen una amenaça per a propietats i vides humanes. En molts països, l’abandó rural de les últimes dècades, el creixement de la continuïtat forestal i l'augment de la interfície urbana-forestal (Wildand-Urban Interface) està comportant l'augment de comunitats exposades al foc forestal alhora que les fan més vulnerables a un gran incendi. A més a més, l'escalfament global sembla que està afavorint i facilitant la recurrència de les condicions climàtiques propícies pels incendis forestals. El problema de l'incendi forestal s’està convertint en un perill natural recurrent i repetitiu que clama avanços urgents en recerca, planificació i gestió per tal de minimitzar-ne el seu impacte. En aquest context, la present tesi se centra en el desenvolupament, la implementació i la validació inicial d'un model de predicció de la propagació del perímetre d'incendis forestals que podria ajudar als responsables de l’emergència a prendre decisions més oportunes per a emprar els recursos de forma eficient tot protegint els actius valuosos. Aquest model predictiu és una implementació particular d'un sistema basat en dades. És a dir, les dades disponibles s'utilitzen per a millorar i calibrar els resultats del model de propagació del front amb l'objectiu de proporcionar un pronòstic més precís i oportú de l’evolució del perímetre del foc en les pròximes hores. Aquesta tesi construeix el sistema esmentat pas a pas, tot incrementant-ne la seva complexitat i abordant les millores i adaptacions necessàries en cada etapa, per exemple, en la caracterització del combustible i la projecció i interacció del vent amb la topografia. Inicialment, s'utilitzen imatges infraroges de l’evolució del perímetre (isòcrones) de dos cremes experimentals dutes a terme a Austràlia per a realitzar una prova de concepte del sistema. Malgrat el resultat favorable d'aquesta primera investigació, s'identifiquen alguns avenços per millorar-ne l'efectivitat i permetre'n l’aplicació en incendis reals. Així, els capítols següents se centren en els submodels de combustible i vent juntament amb l’actualització topogràfica del model de propagació i els diferents algorismes i estratègies matemàtiques necessàries per dur a terme el procés d’assimilació basat en dades. Pel que fa als combustibles, la tesi presenta una anàlisi en profunditat de la caracterització dels combustibles que han d'utilitzar els models de propagació de foc. Això es fa mitjançant una anàlisi minuciosa de la sensibilitat dels paràmetres de caracterització del sistema més utilitzats. A la llum d'aquests resultats, es proposa un model simplificat que integri totes les propietats de combustible diferents per ser utilitzat pel model predictiu desenvolupat en la present tesi. Per resoldre adequadament la interacció del vent amb el terreny i acoblar-la al model de propagació bastat en dades, s'utilitza el programa de diagnòstic WindNinja. Els temps necessaris de computació, però, no permeten la seva directa integració en una estratègia d’assimilació de dades. Així doncs, en aquesta tesi, es desenvolupa i valida un marc interpolador que permeti actualitzacions ràpides i computacionalment assequibles del camp de vents a nivell topogràfic. Aquest element clau es converteix en una peça clau per aconseguir el model de propagació basat en dades que es cerca en aquesta tesi. Per al procés d’optimització (present en qualsevol model conduit per dades) es comparen i s'avaluen sis algorismes matemàtics diferents. Tres d'ells són estratègies de cerca basades en programació lineal i les altres tres són estratègies de recerca global. L’exploració conclou que la selecció d'algorismes té un gran impacte en els resultats finals en termes de la precisió de pronòstic i temps de computació. Finalment, tot el sistema es verifica i valida utilitzant les dades de dues fonts disponibles: (1) incendis experimentals de mitjana escala realitzats a Portugal en un pendent homogeni ben caracteritzat i (2) amb fronts generats sintèticament que reprodueixen un incendi real a gran escala. Aquestes validacions estan orientades a estudiar el rendiment general, comprovar la funcionalitat del sistema això com ressaltar possibles defectes i millores necessàries per tal de poder utilitzar l'eina en una situació d’emergència real. Malgrat els resultats mostren els potencials del sistema tot proporcionant un pronòstic acceptable, utilitzable com a eina de suport per a la gestió d'una emergència, queda també palès que es requereixen més validacions per comprovar la robustesa i fiabilitat de l'eina abans d'utilitzar-la en situacions operatives

Multi-Robot Systems: Challenges, Trends and Applications

This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue entitled “Multi-Robot Systems: Challenges, Trends, and Applications” that was published in Applied Sciences. This Special Issue collected seventeen high-quality papers that discuss the main challenges of multi-robot systems, present the trends to address these issues, and report various relevant applications. Some of the topics addressed by these papers are robot swarms, mission planning, robot teaming, machine learning, immersive technologies, search and rescue, and social robotics

Proceedings of the Second International Mobile Satellite Conference (IMSC 1990)

Presented here are the proceedings of the Second International Mobile Satellite Conference (IMSC), held June 17-20, 1990 in Ottawa, Canada. Topics covered include future mobile satellite communications concepts, aeronautical applications, modulation and coding, propagation and experimental systems, mobile terminal equipment, network architecture and control, regulatory and policy considerations, vehicle antennas, and speech compression

MS FT-2-2 7 Orthogonal polynomials and quadrature: Theory, computation, and applications

Quadrature rules find many applications in science and engineering. Their analysis is a classical area of applied mathematics and continues to attract considerable attention. This seminar brings together speakers with expertise in a large variety of quadrature rules. It is the aim of the seminar to provide an overview of recent developments in the analysis of quadrature rules. The computation of error estimates and novel applications also are described

Generalized averaged Gaussian quadrature and applications

A simple numerical method for constructing the optimal generalized averaged Gaussian quadrature formulas will be presented. These formulas exist in many cases in which real positive GaussKronrod formulas do not exist, and can be used as an adequate alternative in order to estimate the error of a Gaussian rule. We also investigate the conditions under which the optimal averaged Gaussian quadrature formulas and their truncated variants are internal

Abstracts on Radio Direction Finding (1899 - 1995)

The files on this record represent the various databases that originally composed the CD-ROM issue of "Abstracts on Radio Direction Finding" database, which is now part of the Dudley Knox Library's Abstracts and Selected Full Text Documents on Radio Direction Finding (1899 - 1995) Collection. (See Calhoun record https://calhoun.nps.edu/handle/10945/57364 for further information on this collection and the bibliography). Due to issues of technological obsolescence preventing current and future audiences from accessing the bibliography, DKL exported and converted into the three files on this record the various databases contained in the CD-ROM. The contents of these files are: 1) RDFA_CompleteBibliography_xls.zip [RDFA_CompleteBibliography.xls: Metadata for the complete bibliography, in Excel 97-2003 Workbook format; RDFA_Glossary.xls: Glossary of terms, in Excel 97-2003 Workbookformat; RDFA_Biographies.xls: Biographies of leading figures, in Excel 97-2003 Workbook format]; 2) RDFA_CompleteBibliography_csv.zip [RDFA_CompleteBibliography.TXT: Metadata for the complete bibliography, in CSV format; RDFA_Glossary.TXT: Glossary of terms, in CSV format; RDFA_Biographies.TXT: Biographies of leading figures, in CSV format]; 3) RDFA_CompleteBibliography.pdf: A human readable display of the bibliographic data, as a means of double-checking any possible deviations due to conversion

Dipterocarps protected by Jering local wisdom in Jering Menduyung Nature Recreational Park, Bangka Island, Indonesia

Apart of the oil palm plantation expansion, the Jering Menduyung Nature Recreational Park has relatively diverse plants. The 3,538 ha park is located at the north west of Bangka Island, Indonesia. The minimum species-area curve was 0.82 ha which is just below Dalil conservation forest that is 1.2 ha, but it is much higher than measurements of several secondary forests in the Island that are 0.2 ha. The plot is inhabited by more than 50 plant species. Of 22 tree species, there are 40 individual poles with the average diameter of 15.3 cm, and 64 individual trees with the average diameter of 48.9 cm. The density of Dipterocarpus grandiflorus (Blanco) Blanco or kruing, is 20.7 individual/ha with the diameter ranges of 12.1 – 212.7 cm or with the average diameter of 69.0 cm. The relatively intact park is supported by the local wisdom of Jering tribe, one of indigenous tribes in the island. People has regulated in cutting trees especially in the cape. The conservation agency designates the park as one of the kruing propagules sources in the province. The growing oil palm plantation and the less adoption of local wisdom among the youth is a challenge to forest conservation in the province where tin mining activities have been the economic driver for decades. More socialization from the conservation agency and the involvement of university students in raising environmental awareness is important to be done