Uncertainty reasoning in expert systems

Intelligent control is a very successful way to transform the expert's knowledge of the type 'if the velocity is big and the distance from the object is small, hit the brakes and decelerate as fast as possible' into an actual control. To apply this transformation, one must choose appropriate methods for reasoning with uncertainty, i.e., one must: (1) choose the representation for words like 'small', 'big'; (2) choose operations corresponding to 'and' and 'or'; (3) choose a method that transforms the resulting uncertain control recommendations into a precise control strategy. The wrong choice can drastically affect the quality of the resulting control, so the problem of choosing the right procedure is very important. From a mathematical viewpoint these choice problems correspond to non-linear optimization and are therefore extremely difficult. In this project, a new mathematical formalism (based on group theory) is developed that allows us to solve the problem of optimal choice and thus: (1) explain why the existing choices are really the best (in some situations); (2) explain a rather mysterious fact that fuzzy control (i.e., control based on the experts' knowledge) is often better than the control by these same experts; and (3) give choice recommendations for the cases when traditional choices do not work

Evaluating strategies for implementing industry 4.0: a hybrid expert oriented approach of B.W.M. and interval valued intuitionistic fuzzy T.O.D.I.M.

open access articleDeveloping and accepting industry 4.0 influences the industry structure and customer willingness. To a successful transition to industry 4.0, implementation strategies should be selected with a systematic and comprehensive view to responding to the changes flexibly. This research aims to identify and prioritise the strategies for implementing industry 4.0. For this purpose, at first, evaluation attributes of strategies and also strategies to put industry 4.0 in practice are recognised. Then, the attributes are weighted to the experts’ opinion by using the Best Worst Method (BWM). Subsequently, the strategies for implementing industry 4.0 in Fara-Sanat Company, as a case study, have been ranked based on the Interval Valued Intuitionistic Fuzzy (IVIF) of the TODIM method. The results indicated that the attributes of ‘Technology’, ‘Quality’, and ‘Operation’ have respectively the highest importance. Furthermore, the strategies for “new business models development’, ‘Improving information systems’ and ‘Human resource management’ received a higher rank. Eventually, some research and executive recommendations are provided. Having strategies for implementing industry 4.0 is a very important solution. Accordingly, multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods are a useful tool for adopting and selecting appropriate strategies. In this research, a novel and hybrid combination of BWM-TODIM is presented under IVIF information

Fuzzy investment decision support for brownfield redevelopment

Tato disertační práce se zaměřuje na problematiku investování a podporu rozhodování pomocí moderních metod. Zejména pokud jde o analýzu, hodnocení a výběr tzv. brownfieldů pro jejich redevelopment (revitalizaci). Cílem této práce je navrhnout univerzální metodu, která usnadní rozhodovací proces. Proces rozhodování je v praxi komplikován též velkým počet relevantních parametrů ovlivňujících konečné rozhodnutí. Navržená metoda je založena na využití fuzzy logiky, modelování, statistické analýzy, shlukové analýzy, teorie grafů a na sofistikovaných metodách sběru a zpracování informací. Nová metoda umožňuje zefektivnit proces analýzy a porovnávání alternativních investic a přesněji zpracovat velký objem informací. Ve výsledku tak bude zmenšen počet prvků množiny nejvhodnějších alternativních investic na základě hierarchie parametrů stanovených investorem.This dissertation focuses on decision making, investing and brownfield redevelopment. Especially on the analysis, evaluation and selection of previously used real estates suitable for commercial use. The objective of this dissertation is to design a method that facilitates the decision making process with many possible alternatives and large number of relevant parameters influencing the decision. The proposed method is based on the use of fuzzy logic, modeling, statistic analysis, cluster analysis, graph theory and sophisticated methods of information collection and processing. New method allows decision makers to process much larger amount of information and evaluate possible investment alternatives efficiently.

An agent-based fuzzy cognitive map approach to the strategic marketing planning for industrial firms

This is the post-print version of the final paper published in Industrial Marketing Management. The published article is available from the link below. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. Copyright @ 2013 Elsevier B.V.Industrial marketing planning is a typical example of an unstructured decision making problem due to the large number of variables to consider and the uncertainty imposed on those variables. Although abundant studies identified barriers and facilitators of effective industrial marketing planning in practice, the literature still lacks practical tools and methods that marketing managers can use for the task. This paper applies fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) to industrial marketing planning. In particular, agent based inference method is proposed to overcome dynamic relationships, time lags, and reusability issues of FCM evaluation. MACOM simulator also is developed to help marketing managers conduct what-if scenarios to see the impacts of possible changes on the variables defined in an FCM that represents industrial marketing planning problem. The simulator is applied to an industrial marketing planning problem for a global software service company in South Korea. This study has practical implication as it supports marketing managers for industrial marketing planning that has large number of variables and their cause–effect relationships. It also contributes to FCM theory by providing an agent based method for the inference of FCM. Finally, MACOM also provides academics in the industrial marketing management discipline with a tool for developing and pre-verifying a conceptual model based on qualitative knowledge of marketing practitioners.Ministry of Education, Science and Technology (Korea

The On-board Operative Advisory Expert Systems for Anthropocentric Object

A class of intelligent systems located on anthropocentric objects that provide a crew with recommendations on the anthropocentric object's rational behavior in typical situations of operation is considered. We refer to this class of intelligent systems as onboard real-time advisory expert systems. Here, we present a formal model of the object domain, procedures for obtaining knowledge about the object domain, and a semantic structure of basic functional units of the onboard real-time advisory expert systems of typical situations. The stages of the development and improvement of knowledge bases for onboard real-time advisory expert systems of typical situations that are important in practice are considered