Spatial Analysis of Mosquito-Borne Diseases in Europe: A Scoping Review

Mosquito-borne infections are increasing in endemic areas and previously unaffected regions. In 2020, the notification rate for Dengue was 0.5 cases per 100,000 population, and for Chikungunya <0.1/100,000. In 2019, the rate for Malaria was 1.3/100,000, and for West Nile Virus, 0.1/100,000. Spatial analysis is increasingly used in surveillance and epidemiological investigation, but reviews about their use in this research topic are scarce. We identify and describe the methodological approaches used to investigate the distribution and ecological determinants of mosquito-borne infections in Europe. Relevant literature was extracted from PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science from inception until October 2021 and analysed according to PRISMA-ScR protocol. We identified 110 studies. Most used geographical correlation analysis (n = 50), mainly applying generalised linear models, and the remaining used spatial cluster detection (n = 30) and disease mapping (n = 30), mainly conducted using frequentist approaches. The most studied infections were Dengue (n = 32), Malaria (n = 26), Chikungunya (n = 26), and West Nile Virus (n = 24), and the most studied ecological determinants were temperature (n = 39), precipitation (n = 24), water bodies (n = 14), and vegetation (n = 11). Results from this review may support public health programs for mosquito-borne disease prevention and may help guide future research, as we recommended various good practices for spatial epidemiological studies.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Analyzing Public Reactions, Perceptions, and Attitudes during the MPox Outbreak: Findings from Topic Modeling of Tweets

The recent outbreak of the MPox virus has resulted in a tremendous increase in the usage of Twitter. Prior works in this area of research have primarily focused on the sentiment analysis and content analysis of these Tweets, and the few works that have focused on topic modeling have multiple limitations. This paper aims to address this research gap and makes two scientific contributions to this field. First, it presents the results of performing Topic Modeling on 601,432 Tweets about the 2022 Mpox outbreak that were posted on Twitter between 7 May 2022 and 3 March 2023. The results indicate that the conversations on Twitter related to Mpox during this time range may be broadly categorized into four distinct themes - Views and Perspectives about Mpox, Updates on Cases and Investigations about Mpox, Mpox and the LGBTQIA+ Community, and Mpox and COVID-19. Second, the paper presents the findings from the analysis of these Tweets. The results show that the theme that was most popular on Twitter (in terms of the number of Tweets posted) during this time range was Views and Perspectives about Mpox. This was followed by the theme of Mpox and the LGBTQIA+ Community, which was followed by the themes of Mpox and COVID-19 and Updates on Cases and Investigations about Mpox, respectively. Finally, a comparison with related studies in this area of research is also presented to highlight the novelty and significance of this research work

Analysis of Heterogeneous Data Sources for Veterinary Syndromic Surveillance to Improve Public Health Response and Aid Decision Making

The standard technique of implementing veterinary syndromic surveillance (VSyS) is the detection of temporal or spatial anomalies in the occurrence of health incidents above a set threshold in an observed population using the Frequentist modelling approach. Most implementation of this technique also requires the removal of historical outbreaks from the datasets to construct baselines. Unfortunately, some challenges exist, such as data scarcity, delayed reporting of health incidents, and variable data availability from sources, which make the VSyS implementation and alarm interpretation difficult, particularly when quantifying surveillance risk with associated uncertainties. This problem indicates that alternate or improved techniques are required to interpret alarms when incorporating uncertainties and previous knowledge of health incidents into the model to inform decision-making. Such methods must be capable of retaining historical outbreaks to assess surveillance risk. In this research work, the Stochastic Quantitative Risk Assessment (SQRA) model was proposed and developed for detecting and quantifying the risk of disease outbreaks with associated uncertainties using the Bayesian probabilistic approach in PyMC3. A systematic and comparative evaluation of the available techniques was used to select the most appropriate method and software packages based on flexibility, efficiency, usability, ability to retain historical outbreaks, and the ease of developing a model in Python. The social media datasets (Twitter) were first applied to infer a possible disease outbreak incident with associated uncertainties. Then, the inferences were subsequently updated using datasets from the clinical and other healthcare sources to reduce uncertainties in the model and validate the outbreak. Therefore, the proposed SQRA model demonstrates an approach that uses the successive refinement of analysis of different data streams to define a changepoint signalling a disease outbreak. The SQRA model was tested and validated to show the method's effectiveness and reliability for differentiating and identifying risk regions with corresponding changepoints to interpret an ongoing disease outbreak incident. This demonstrates that a technique such as the SQRA method obtained through this research may aid in overcoming some of the difficulties identified in VSyS, such as data scarcity, delayed reporting, and variable availability of data from sources, ultimately contributing to science and practice

Real-time processing of social media with SENTINEL: a syndromic surveillance system incorporating deep learning for health classification

Interest in real-time syndromic surveillance based on social media data has greatly increased in recent years. The ability to detect disease outbreaks earlier than traditional methods would be highly useful for public health officials. This paper describes a software system which is built upon recent developments in machine learning and data processing to achieve this goal. The system is built from reusable modules integrated into data processing pipelines that are easily deployable and configurable. It applies deep learning to the problem of classifying health-related tweets and is able to do so with high accuracy. It has the capability to detect illness outbreaks from Twitter data and then to build up and display information about these outbreaks, including relevant news articles, to provide situational awareness. It also provides nowcasting functionality of current disease levels from previous clinical data combined with Twitter data. The preliminary results are promising, with the system being able to detect outbreaks of influenza-like illness symptoms which could then be confirmed by existing official sources. The Nowcasting module shows that using social media data can improve prediction for multiple diseases over simply using traditional data sources

Time and information retrieval: Introduction to the special issue

The Special Issue of Information Processing and Management includes research papers on the intersection between time and information retrieval. In 'Evaluating Document Filtering Systems over Time', Tom Kenter and Krisztian Balog propose a time-aware way of measuring a system's performance at filtering documents. Manika Kar, SeAa7acute;rgio Nunes and Cristina Ribeiro present interesting methods for summarizing changes in dynamic text collections over time in their paper 'Summarization of Changes in Dynamic Text Collection using Latent Dirichlet Allocation Model.' Hideo Joho, Adam Jatowt and Roi Blanco report on the temporal information searching behaviour of users and their strategies for dealing with searches that have a temporal nature in 'Temporal Information Searching Behaviour and Strategies', a user study. In controlled settings, thirty participants are asked to perform searches on an array of topics on the web to find information related to particular time scopes. Adam Jatowt, Ching-man Au Yeung and Katsumi Tanaka present a 'Generic Method for Detecting Content Time of Documents'. The authors propose several methods for estimating the focus time of documents, i.e. the time a document's content refers to. Xujian Zhao, Peiquan Jin and Lihua Yue present an approach to determining the time of the underlying topic or event in their article entitled 'Discovering Topic Time from Web News'

Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data such as social media and search queries are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with $r^2$ up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.Comment: 27 pages; 4 figures; 4 tables. Version 2: Cite McIver & Brownstein and adjust novelty claims accordingly; revise title; various revisions for clarit