The Day-to-Day Dynamics of Route Choice

This paper reviews methods proposed for modelling the day-to-day dynamics of route choice, on an individual driver level. Extensions to within-day dynamics and choice of departure time are also discussed. A new variation on the approaches reviewed is also described. Simulation tests on a simple two-link network are used to illustrate the approach, and to investigate probabilistic counterparts of equilibrium uniqueness and stability. The long-term plan is for such a day-to-day varying demand-side model to be combined with a suitable microscopic supply-side model, thereby producing a new generation network model. The need for such a model - particularly in the context of assessing real-time transport strategies - has been identified in previous working papers

Alternative hypotheses linking the immune system and mate choice for good genes

Why do males often have extravagant morphological and behavioural traits, and why do females prefer to mate with such males? The answers have been the focus of considerable debate since Darwin's 'The descent of man, and selection in relation to sex' appeared in 1871. Recently, the broadening of investigation to include fields outside evolutionary biology has shed new light on mate choice and sexual selection. Here, we focus on a specific set of hypotheses relating the biology of resisting disease-causing organisms with the production of condition-dependent sexual signals (advertisements). We present a framework that distinguishes three different hypotheses about trade-offs within the immune system that affect general condition. The original Hamilton & Zuk hypothesis suggests that hosts fight off disease via resistance to particular pathogens, which lowers resistance to other pathogens. Changes in pathogens over evolutionary time in turn favours changes in which genes confer the best resistance. Alternatively, the immunocompetence hypotheses suggest that the energetic costs of mounting a response to any pathogen compete for resources with other things, such as producing or maintaining advertisements. Finally, improving resistance to pathogens could increase the negative impacts of the immune system on the host, via immunopathologies such as allergies or autoimmune diseases. If both disease and immunopathology affect condition, then sexual advertisements could signal a balance between the two. Studies of hypothesized links between genes, condition, the immune system and advertisements will require careful consideration of which hypothesis is being considered, and may necessitate different measures of immune system responses and different experimental protocols

A tutorial on recursive models for analyzing and predicting path choice behavior

The problem at the heart of this tutorial consists in modeling the path choice behavior of network users. This problem has been extensively studied in transportation science, where it is known as the route choice problem. In this literature, individuals' choice of paths are typically predicted using discrete choice models. This article is a tutorial on a specific category of discrete choice models called recursive, and it makes three main contributions: First, for the purpose of assisting future research on route choice, we provide a comprehensive background on the problem, linking it to different fields including inverse optimization and inverse reinforcement learning. Second, we formally introduce the problem and the recursive modeling idea along with an overview of existing models, their properties and applications. Third, we extensively analyze illustrative examples from different angles so that a novice reader can gain intuition on the problem and the advantages provided by recursive models in comparison to path-based ones

Navigation and guidance requirements for commercial VTOL operations

The NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) has undertaken a research program to develop the navigation, guidance, control, and flight management technology base needed by Government and industry in establishing systems design concepts and operating procedures for VTOL short-haul transportation systems in the 1980s time period. The VALT (VTOL Automatic Landing Technology) Program encompasses the investigation of operating systems and piloting techniques associated with VTOL operations under all-weather conditions from downtown vertiports; the definition of terminal air traffic and airspace requirements; and the development of avionics including navigation, guidance, controls, and displays for automated takeoff, cruise, and landing operations. The program includes requirements analyses, design studies, systems development, ground simulation, and flight validation efforts

Pareto optimality in multilayer network growth

We model the formation of multi-layer transportation networks as a multi-objective optimization process, where service providers compete for passengers, and the creation of routes is determined by a multi-objective cost function encoding a trade-off between efficiency and competition. The resulting model reproduces well real-world systems as diverse as airplane, train and bus networks, thus suggesting that such systems are indeed compatible with the proposed local optimization mechanisms. In the specific case of airline transportation systems, we show that the networks of routes operated by each company are placed very close to the theoretical Pareto front in the efficiency-competition plane, and that most of the largest carriers of a continent belong to the corresponding Pareto front. Our results shed light on the fundamental role played by multi-objective optimization principles in shaping the structure of large-scale multilayer transportation systems, and provide novel insights to service providers on the strategies for the smart selection of novel routes

User equilibrium traffic network assignment with stochastic travel times and late arrival penalty

The classical Wardrop user equilibrium (UE) assignment model assumes traveller choices are based on fixed, known travel times, yet these times are known to be rather variable between trips, both within and between days; typically, then, only mean travel times are represented. Classical stochastic user equilibrium (SUE) methods allow the mean travel times to be differentially perceived across the population, yet in a conventional application neither the UE or SUE approach recognises the travel times to be inherently variable. That is to say, there is no recognition that drivers risk arriving late at their destinations, and that this risk may vary across different paths of the network and according to the arrival time flexibility of the traveller. Recent work on incorporating risky elements into the choice process is seen either to neglect the link to the arrival constraints of the traveller, or to apply only to restricted problems with parallel alternatives and inflexible travel time distributions. In the paper, an alternative approach is described based on the ‘schedule delay’ paradigm, penalising late arrival under fixed departure times. The approach allows flexible travel time densities, which can be fitted to actual surveillance data, to be incorporated. A generalised formulation of UE is proposed, termed a Late Arrival Penalised UE (LAPUE). Conditions for the existence and uniqueness of LAPUE solutions are considered, as well as methods for their computation. Two specific travel time models are then considered, one based on multivariate Normal arc travel times, and an extended model to represent arc incidents, based on mixture distributions of multivariate Normals. Several illustrative examples are used to examine the sensitivity of LAPUE solutions to various input parameters, and in particular its comparison with UE predictions. Finally, paths for further research are discussed, including the extension of the model to include elements such as distributed arrival time constraints and penalties

Effectiveness of Variable Message Signs Using Empirical Loop Detector Data

The effectiveness of Variable Messages Signs (VMS) on route guidance is assessed by a discrete probit choice model that estimates the proportion of vehicles that diverts to an alternative routes given the characteristics of different messages. A before–and–after study is also conducted to quantitatively evaluate the network wide reduction of travel time and total delay of VMS systems. We find that VMS has no obvious effect on reduction of travel time, but can reduce the total delay.Route Choice, Diversion Behavior, Cost Benefit Analysis

Generalized Multivariate Extreme Value Models for Explicit Route Choice Sets

This paper analyses a class of route choice models with closed-form probability expressions, namely, Generalized Multivariate Extreme Value (GMEV) models. A large group of these models emerge from different utility formulas that combine systematic utility and random error terms. Twelve models are captured in a single discrete choice framework. The additive utility formula leads to the known logit family, being multinomial, path-size, paired combinatorial and link-nested. For the multiplicative formulation only the multinomial and path-size weibit models have been identified; this study also identifies the paired combinatorial and link-nested variations, and generalizes the path-size variant. Furthermore, a new traveller's decision rule based on the multiplicative utility formula with a reference route is presented. Here the traveller chooses exclusively based on the differences between routes. This leads to four new GMEV models. We assess the models qualitatively based on a generic structure of route utility with random foreseen travel times, for which we empirically identify that the variance of utility should be different from thus far assumed for multinomial probit and logit-kernel models. The expected travellers' behaviour and model-behaviour under simple network changes are analysed. Furthermore, all models are estimated and validated on an illustrative network example with long distance and short distance origin-destination pairs. The new multiplicative models based on differences outperform the additive models in both tests