Design Issues for Generalized Linear Models: A Review

Generalized linear models (GLMs) have been used quite effectively in the modeling of a mean response under nonstandard conditions, where discrete as well as continuous data distributions can be accommodated. The choice of design for a GLM is a very important task in the development and building of an adequate model. However, one major problem that handicaps the construction of a GLM design is its dependence on the unknown parameters of the fitted model. Several approaches have been proposed in the past 25 years to solve this problem. These approaches, however, have provided only partial solutions that apply in only some special cases, and the problem, in general, remains largely unresolved. The purpose of this article is to focus attention on the aforementioned dependence problem. We provide a survey of various existing techniques dealing with the dependence problem. This survey includes discussions concerning locally optimal designs, sequential designs, Bayesian designs and the quantile dispersion graph approach for comparing designs for GLMs.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/088342306000000105 in the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Development and software implementation of modelling tools for rapid fermentation process development using a parallel mini-bioreactor system

In order to establish a generic framework for the rapid development and optimisation of scalable fermentation processes, a novel methodology for simplifying model building was explored. This approach integrates small-scale fermentations with model-based experimental design (DoE) and predictive control strategies. In this study, four 1.4 litre vessels were characterised for power input, volumetric oxygen transfer coefficient (KLa) and mixing, to assess its potential for replicating cell culture rapidly. Engineering characterisation results showed excellent propeller operation over a range of 400-1200 rpm and up to the maximum motor output and under various air flow rates in fluid densities up to 4.21 Cp/mPa s (1.211 g/cm3 ). Limits were reached using glycerol (99%) at fluid viscosities of 500Cp/mPa s (1.253g/cm3 ) at 800 rpm and no air flow, hence experiencing the most resistance. This was the most taxing condition in terms of energy input into the system. Furthermore, we determined the efficient gas dispersion which is considered important for oxygen bubble dispersion in viscous fluids. The potential gas dispersion could be calculated as a function of both impeller speed, airflow rate, and the fluid viscosity. The calculations provided a working impeller speed of >263 rpm for >0.5 vvm air flow rate as preliminary parameters in our advanced modelling section. The key outcome of the KLa study was that the results showed suitable potential for mass transfer for high cell density fermentations, for each of the parallel stirred tank bioreactors. To assess the usability of the parallel bioreactors be used for bioprocess rapid development purposes Escherichia coli W3110 was characterised in the 1L WV vessels. So overall the experiments included testing the performance of the vessels engineering parameters and also the biological fermentations confirming that the system was suitable for parallel operation with high reproducibility. For model building, especially suited for the 4-reactor set up the parallel bioreactors a fractional factorial design was used, in which models could be rapidly built and implemented for further research. The screening and model optimisation helped to reduce the development time by using the parallel equipment. Batches of four reactors could be completed in parallel in which comparable experimental results were obtained rapidly for new fermentation models. Optical density measurements provided a quick off-line analysis of the growth curve of microbial populations, as compared to cell plate counts or dry weights that require more time. For the model development and the establishment of our integrated software modelling tool, a modified logistic model was developed to predict microbial growth kinetics. First-order kinetic models, logistic, and Gompertz models were used and comparatively analysed to assess the model fit to test batch data. The logistic model was favourable for mapping and simulating the later phases of bacterial growth, while the well-established exponential growth model predicted the early lag phase in our stoichiometric growth simulation software tool better. The initialisation of the previous fermentation model allowed us to build a statistical model, which was based on the engineering characteristics for optimisation of biomass. Therefore, batch nutrient supply with the aid of stoichiometric models could be tested and modelled. DoE model data was improved with metabolic flux analysis to develop an advanced feeding strategy by testing various metabolic pathways and the nutrients used in experimentation. Bacterial growth predictions and media optimisation were tested for maximising microbial biomass yields. We then modelled the dissolved oxygen concentration and substrate utilisation. The techniques and principles of dynamic flux balance analysis, mechanistic modelling, and stoichiometric mass balancing were used. The aim was to create and validate our integrated software based on advanced modelling for the parallel bioreactor systems and tested through application for E. coli fermentations. Optimising microbial biomass was the main target in this project, with the data collected from fermentation being the strongest comparator and validator. A new software for the integration of DoE and Dynamic flux balance analysis (DFBA) techniques with the intention of creating a working fermentation platform for the Multifors equipment via simulation and fermentation optimisation was the novel outcome of this research. The tool could provide functions for speeding up development time and control of parallel bioreactors

A comparative study of parametric mortality projection models

The relative merits of different parametric models for making life expectancy and annuity value predictions at both pensioner and adult ages are investigated. This study builds on current published research and considers recent model enhancements and the extent to which these enhancements address the deficiencies that have been identified of some of the models. The England & Wales male mortality experience is used to conduct detailed comparisons at pensioner ages, having first established a common basis for comparison across all models. The model comparison is then extended to include the England & Wales female experience and both the male and female USA mortality experiences over a wider age range, encompassing also the working ages

A Quantitative Methodology for Vetting Dark Network Intelligence Sources for Social Network Analysis

Social network analysis (SNA) is used by the DoD to describe and analyze social networks, leading to recommendations for operational decisions. However, social network models are constructed from various information sources of indeterminate reliability. Inclusion of unreliable information can lead to incorrect models resulting in flawed analysis and decisions. This research develops a methodology to assist the analyst by quantitatively identifying and categorizing information sources so that determinations on including or excluding provided data can be made. This research pursued three main thrusts. It consolidated binary similarity measures to determine social network information sources\u27 concordance and developed a methodology to select suitable measures dependent upon application considerations. A methodology was developed to assess the validity of individual sources of social network data. This methodology utilized source pairwise comparisons to measure information sources\u27 concordance and a weighting schema to account for sources\u27 unique perspectives of the underlying social network. Finally, the developed methodology was tested over a variety of generated networks with varying parameters in a design of experiments paradigm (DOE). Various factors relevant to conditions faced by SNA analysts potentially employing this methodology were examined. The DOE was comprised of a 24 full factorial design augmented with a nearly orthogonal Latin hypercube. A linear model was constructed using quantile regression to mitigate the non-normality of the error terms

Covariate Measurement Error in Endogenous Stratified Samples

In this paper we propose a general framework to deal with the presence of covariate mea-surement error in endogenous stratifield samples. Using Chesher’s (2000) methodology, we develop approximately consistent estimators for the parameters of the structural model, in the sense that their inconsistency is of smaller order than that of the conventional estimators which ignore the existence of covariate measurement error. The approximate bias corrected estimators are obtained by applying the generalized method of moments (GMM) to a modifeld version of the moment indicators suggested by Imbens and Lancaster (1996) for endogenous stratified samples. Only the specification of the conditional distribution of the response vari-able given the latent covariates and the classical additive measurement error model assumption are required, the availability of information on both the marginal probability of the strata in the population and the variance of the measurement error not being essential. A score test to detect the presence of covariate measurement error arises as a by-product of this approach. Monte Carlo evidence is presented which suggests that, in endogenous stratified samples of moderate sizes, the modified GMM estimators perform well

Diseños experimentales secuenciales para modelos logísticos de regresión

Cuando los supuestos habituales de normalidad y varianza constante no se cumplen (e.g. en procesos de Bernoulli o binomiales), el problema de la elección de diseños adecuados ocasiona cierta dificultad a los experimentadores, especialmente cuando lo que se persigue es una exploración secuencial del proceso. Este artículo está basado en De Zan (2006), en donde se proponen dos criterios para evaluar estrategias de diseño. Una de ellas toma en cuenta la cantidad de información contenida en el modelo ajustado, mientras que la otra explora la información contenida en las mejores condiciones de experimentación encontradas en el modelo ajustado. Se desarrolla un ejemplo simulado con el paquete R acerca de cómo funcionan estas estrategias.When the usual hypotheses of normality and constant variance do not hold (e.g. in binomial or Bernoulli processes), the problem of choosing appropriate designs creates problems to researches when pursuing a sequential exploration of process. This paper is based on De Zan (2006), where the author proposes two criteria to evaluate design strategies, that take the amount of information as the main evaluation tool. One into account the information of the fitted model, and the other explores the information that is contained on the approximation of a set of the best conditions of factors found on a fitted model. An example of how these strategies work is also given through a simulation using R software

Untangling hotel industry’s inefficiency: An SFA approach applied to a renowned Portuguese hotel chain

The present paper explores the technical efficiency of four hotels from Teixeira Duarte Group - a renowned Portuguese hotel chain. An efficiency ranking is established from these four hotel units located in Portugal using Stochastic Frontier Analysis. This methodology allows to discriminate between measurement error and systematic inefficiencies in the estimation process enabling to investigate the main inefficiency causes. Several suggestions concerning efficiency improvement are undertaken for each hotel studied.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Book of Abstracts XVIII Congreso de Biometría CEBMADRID

Abstracts of the XVIII Congreso de Biometría CEBMADRID held from 25 to 27 May in MadridInteractive modelling and prediction of patient evolution via multistate models / Leire Garmendia Bergés, Jordi Cortés Martínez and Guadalupe Gómez Melis : This research was funded by the Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (Spain) [PID2019104830RBI00]; and the Generalitat de Catalunya (Spain) [2017SGR622 and 2020PANDE00148].Operating characteristics of a model-based approach to incorporate non-concurrent controls in platform trials / Pavla Krotka, Martin Posch, Marta Bofill Roig : EU-PEARL (EU Patient-cEntric clinicAl tRial pLatforms) project has received funding from the Innovative Medicines Initiative (IMI) 2 Joint Undertaking (JU) under grant agreement No 853966. This Joint Undertaking receives support from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme and EFPIA and Children’s Tumor Foundation, Global Alliance for TB Drug Development non-profit organisation, Spring works Therapeutics Inc.Modeling COPD hospitalizations using variable domain functional regression / Pavel Hernández Amaro, María Durbán Reguera, María del Carmen Aguilera Morillo, Cristobal Esteban Gonzalez, Inma Arostegui : This work is supported by the grant ID2019-104901RB-I00 from the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033.Spatio-temporal quantile autoregression for detecting changes in daily temperature in northeastern Spain / Jorge Castillo-Mateo, Alan E. Gelfand, Jesús Asín, Ana C. Cebrián / Spatio-temporal quantile autoregression for detecting changes in daily temperature in northeastern Spain : This work was partially supported by the Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación under Grant PID2020-116873GB-I00; Gobierno de Aragón under Research Group E46_20R: Modelos Estocásticos; and JC-M was supported by Gobierno de Aragón under Doctoral Scholarship ORDEN CUS/581/2020.Estimation of the area under the ROC curve with complex survey data / Amaia Iparragirre, Irantzu Barrio, Inmaculada Arostegui : This work was financially supported in part by IT1294-19, PID2020-115882RB-I00, KK-2020/00049. The work of AI was supported by PIF18/213.INLAMSM: Adjusting multivariate lattice models with R and INLA / Francisco Palmí Perales, Virgilio Gómez Rubio and Miguel Ángel Martínez Beneito : This work has been supported by grants PPIC-2014-001-P and SBPLY/17/180501/000491, funded by Consejería de Educación, Cultura y Deportes (Junta de Comunidades de Castilla-La Mancha, Spain) and FEDER, grant MTM2016-77501-P, funded by Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (Spain), grant PID2019-106341GB-I00 from Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (Spain) and a grant to support research groups by the University of Castilla-La Mancha (Spain). F. Palmí-Perales has been supported by a Ph.D. scholarship awarded by the University of Castilla-La Mancha (Spain)