Qualitative Reachability for Open Interval Markov Chains

Interval Markov chains extend classical Markov chains with the possibility to describe transition probabilities using intervals, rather than exact values. While the standard formulation of interval Markov chains features closed intervals, previous work has considered also open interval Markov chains, in which the intervals can also be open or half-open. In this paper we focus on qualitative reachability problems for open interval Markov chains, which consider whether the optimal (maximum or minimum) probability with which a certain set of states can be reached is equal to 0 or 1. We present polynomial-time algorithms for these problems for both of the standard semantics of interval Markov chains. Our methods do not rely on the closure of open intervals, in contrast to previous approaches for open interval Markov chains, and can characterise situations in which probability 0 or 1 can be attained not exactly but arbitrarily closely.Comment: Full version of a paper published at RP 201

Reachability in Parametric Interval Markov Chains using Constraints

Parametric Interval Markov Chains (pIMCs) are a specification formalism that extend Markov Chains (MCs) and Interval Markov Chains (IMCs) by taking into account imprecision in the transition probability values: transitions in pIMCs are labeled with parametric intervals of probabilities. In this work, we study the difference between pIMCs and other Markov Chain abstractions models and investigate the two usual semantics for IMCs: once-and-for-all and at-every-step. In particular, we prove that both semantics agree on the maximal/minimal reachability probabilities of a given IMC. We then investigate solutions to several parameter synthesis problems in the context of pIMCs -- consistency, qualitative reachability and quantitative reachability -- that rely on constraint encodings. Finally, we propose a prototype implementation of our constraint encodings with promising results

When are Stochastic Transition Systems Tameable?

A decade ago, Abdulla, Ben Henda and Mayr introduced the elegant concept of decisiveness for denumerable Markov chains [1]. Roughly speaking, decisiveness allows one to lift most good properties from finite Markov chains to denumerable ones, and therefore to adapt existing verification algorithms to infinite-state models. Decisive Markov chains however do not encompass stochastic real-time systems, and general stochastic transition systems (STSs for short) are needed. In this article, we provide a framework to perform both the qualitative and the quantitative analysis of STSs. First, we define various notions of decisiveness (inherited from [1]), notions of fairness and of attractors for STSs, and make explicit the relationships between them. Then, we define a notion of abstraction, together with natural concepts of soundness and completeness, and we give general transfer properties, which will be central to several verification algorithms on STSs. We further design a generic construction which will be useful for the analysis of {\omega}-regular properties, when a finite attractor exists, either in the system (if it is denumerable), or in a sound denumerable abstraction of the system. We next provide algorithms for qualitative model-checking, and generic approximation procedures for quantitative model-checking. Finally, we instantiate our framework with stochastic timed automata (STA), generalized semi-Markov processes (GSMPs) and stochastic time Petri nets (STPNs), three models combining dense-time and probabilities. This allows us to derive decidability and approximability results for the verification of these models. Some of these results were known from the literature, but our generic approach permits to view them in a unified framework, and to obtain them with less effort. We also derive interesting new approximability results for STA, GSMPs and STPNs.Comment: 77 page

PrIC3: Property Directed Reachability for MDPs

IC3 has been a leap forward in symbolic model checking. This paper proposes PrIC3 (pronounced pricy-three), a conservative extension of IC3 to symbolic model checking of MDPs. Our main focus is to develop the theory underlying PrIC3. Alongside, we present a first implementation of PrIC3 including the key ingredients from IC3 such as generalization, repushing, and propagation

Qualitative Analysis of Concurrent Mean-payoff Games

We consider concurrent games played by two-players on a finite-state graph, where in every round the players simultaneously choose a move, and the current state along with the joint moves determine the successor state. We study a fundamental objective, namely, mean-payoff objective, where a reward is associated to each transition, and the goal of player 1 is to maximize the long-run average of the rewards, and the objective of player 2 is strictly the opposite. The path constraint for player 1 could be qualitative, i.e., the mean-payoff is the maximal reward, or arbitrarily close to it; or quantitative, i.e., a given threshold between the minimal and maximal reward. We consider the computation of the almost-sure (resp. positive) winning sets, where player 1 can ensure that the path constraint is satisfied with probability 1 (resp. positive probability). Our main results for qualitative path constraints are as follows: (1) we establish qualitative determinacy results that show that for every state either player 1 has a strategy to ensure almost-sure (resp. positive) winning against all player-2 strategies, or player 2 has a spoiling strategy to falsify almost-sure (resp. positive) winning against all player-1 strategies; (2) we present optimal strategy complexity results that precisely characterize the classes of strategies required for almost-sure and positive winning for both players; and (3) we present quadratic time algorithms to compute the almost-sure and the positive winning sets, matching the best known bound of algorithms for much simpler problems (such as reachability objectives). For quantitative constraints we show that a polynomial time solution for the almost-sure or the positive winning set would imply a solution to a long-standing open problem (the value problem for turn-based deterministic mean-payoff games) that is not known to be solvable in polynomial time

Petri nets for systems and synthetic biology

We give a description of a Petri net-based framework for modelling and analysing biochemical pathways, which uni¯es the qualita- tive, stochastic and continuous paradigms. Each perspective adds its con- tribution to the understanding of the system, thus the three approaches do not compete, but complement each other. We illustrate our approach by applying it to an extended model of the three stage cascade, which forms the core of the ERK signal transduction pathway. Consequently our focus is on transient behaviour analysis. We demonstrate how quali- tative descriptions are abstractions over stochastic or continuous descrip- tions, and show that the stochastic and continuous models approximate each other. Although our framework is based on Petri nets, it can be applied more widely to other formalisms which are used to model and analyse biochemical networks

Compositional Verification and Optimization of Interactive Markov Chains

Interactive Markov chains (IMC) are compositional behavioural models extending labelled transition systems and continuous-time Markov chains. We provide a framework and algorithms for compositional verification and optimization of IMC with respect to time-bounded properties. Firstly, we give a specification formalism for IMC. Secondly, given a time-bounded property, an IMC component and the assumption that its unknown environment satisfies a given specification, we synthesize a scheduler for the component optimizing the probability that the property is satisfied in any such environment

On Zone-Based Analysis of Duration Probabilistic Automata

We propose an extension of the zone-based algorithmics for analyzing timed automata to handle systems where timing uncertainty is considered as probabilistic rather than set-theoretic. We study duration probabilistic automata (DPA), expressing multiple parallel processes admitting memoryfull continuously-distributed durations. For this model we develop an extension of the zone-based forward reachability algorithm whose successor operator is a density transformer, thus providing a solution to verification and performance evaluation problems concerning acyclic DPA (or the bounded-horizon behavior of cyclic DPA).Comment: In Proceedings INFINITY 2010, arXiv:1010.611

Ergodicity of the zigzag process

The zigzag process is a Piecewise Deterministic Markov Process which can be used in a MCMC framework to sample from a given target distribution. We prove the convergence of this process to its target under very weak assumptions, and establish a central limit theorem for empirical averages under stronger assumptions on the decay of the target measure. We use the classical "Meyn-Tweedie" approach. The main difficulty turns out to be the proof that the process can indeed reach all the points in the space, even if we consider the minimal switching rates

Conditional Value-at-Risk for Reachability and Mean Payoff in Markov Decision Processes

We present the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) in the context of Markov chains and Markov decision processes with reachability and mean-payoff objectives. CVaR quantifies risk by means of the expectation of the worst p-quantile. As such it can be used to design risk-averse systems. We consider not only CVaR constraints, but also introduce their conjunction with expectation constraints and quantile constraints (value-at-risk, VaR). We derive lower and upper bounds on the computational complexity of the respective decision problems and characterize the structure of the strategies in terms of memory and randomization