How has the macroeconomic imbalances procedure worked in practice to improve the resilience of the euro area? March 24 2020

This paper shows how the Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure (MIP) could be streamlined and its underlying conceptual framework clarified. Implementation of the country-specific recommendations is low; their internal consistency is sometimes missing; despite past reforms, the MIP remains largely a countryby-country approach running the risk of aggravating the deflationary bias in the euro area. We recommend to streamline the scoreboard around a few meaningful indicators, involve national macro-prudential and productivity councils, better connect the various recommendations, simplify the language and further involve the Commission into national policy discussions. This document was prepared for the Economic Governance Support Unit at the request of the ECON Committee

UAV-Empowered Disaster-Resilient Edge Architecture for Delay-Sensitive Communication

The fifth-generation (5G) communication systems will enable enhanced mobile broadband, ultra-reliable low latency, and massive connectivity services. The broadband and low-latency services are indispensable to public safety (PS) communication during natural or man-made disasters. Recently, the third generation partnership project long term evolution (3GPPLTE) has emerged as a promising candidate to enable broadband PS communications. In this article, first we present six major PS-LTE enabling services and the current status of PS-LTE in 3GPP releases. Then, we discuss the spectrum bands allocated for PS-LTE in major countries by international telecommunication union (ITU). Finally, we propose a disaster resilient three-layered architecture for PS-LTE (DR-PSLTE). This architecture consists of a software-defined network (SDN) layer to provide centralized control, an unmanned air vehicle (UAV) cloudlet layer to facilitate edge computing or to enable emergency communication link, and a radio access layer. The proposed architecture is flexible and combines the benefits of SDNs and edge computing to efficiently meet the delay requirements of various PS-LTE services. Numerical results verified that under the proposed DR-PSLTE architecture, delay is reduced by 20% as compared with the conventional centralized computing architecture.Comment: 9,

Near Real-Time Disturbance Detection in Terrestrial Ecosystems Using Satellite Image Time Series: Drought Detection in Somalia

Near real-time monitoring of ecosystem disturbances is critical for addressing impacts on carbon dynamics, biodiversity, and socio-ecological processes. Satellite remote sensing enables cost-effective and accurate monitoring at frequent time steps over large areas. Yet, generic methods to detect disturbances within newly captured satellite images are lacking. We propose a generic time series based disturbance detection approach by modelling stable historical behaviour to enable detection of abnormal changes within newly acquired data. Time series of vegetation greenness provide a measure for terrestrial vegetation productivity over the last decades covering the whole world and contain essential information related land cover dynamics and disturbances. Here, we assess and demonstrate the method by (1) simulating time series of vegetation greenness data from satellite data with different amount of noise, seasonality and disturbances representing a wide range of terrestrial ecosystems, (2) applying it to real satellite greenness image time series between February 2000 and July 2011 covering Somalia to detect drought related vegetation disturbances. First, simulation results illustrate that disturbances are successfully detected in near real-time while being robust for seasonality and noise. Second, major drought related disturbance corresponding with most drought stressed regions in Somalia are detected from mid 2010 onwards and confirm proof-of-concept of the method. The method can be integrated within current operational early warning systems and has the potential to detect a wide variety of disturbances (e.g. deforestation, flood damage, etc.). It can analyse in-situ or satellite data time series of biophysical indicators from local to global scale since it is fast, does not depend on thresholds or definitions and does not require time series gap filling.early warning, real-time monitoring, global change, disturbance, time series, remote sensing, vegetation and climate dynamics

Prediction of specific virus outbreaks made from the increased concentration of a new class of virus genomic peptides, replikins.

Advance warning of pathogen outbreaks has not been possible heretofore. A new class of genomic peptides associated with rapid replication was discovered and named replikins. Software was designed to analyze replikins quantitatively. Replikin concentration changes were measured annually prior to, and “real time” every few days during, the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Replikins were seen by both linear sequence representation and three-dimensional X-ray diffraction, and found to expand on the virus hemagglutinin surface prior to and during the H1N1 pandemic.

A highly significant increased concentration of virus replikins was found a) retrospectively in three pandemics from 1918 to 1999 (14,227 sequences)(p<0.001), and b) prospectively before the H1N1 2009 pandemic (12,806 sequences) (in the hemagglutinin gene (N=8,046), p values by t-test = 1/10130, by linear regression = 1/1024 and 1/1029, by Spearman correlation < 2/1016, by Wilcoxon rank sum<1/1016, by multiple regression adjusting for correlation between consecutive years = 2/1022. Rising replikin concentration in H1N1 from 2006 to 2008, predicted one year in advance the H1N1 outbreak of 2009; and in H5N1, predicted the lethal outbreaks of H5N1 1997-2010. 

The possible combination of influenza strains H1N1 (high infectivity) and H5N1 (high lethality) is a matter of global concern (1,2). The risk of a combined H1N1 (high infectivity) - H5N1 (high lethality) outbreak may have increased because first, the Replikin Counts of the two virus strains have risen simultaneously, not seen previously; second, the rise is to the highest levels recorded since 1918 for H1N1, in Mexico (16.7), and since 1957 for H5N1, in Egypt (23.3); and third, clinical outbreaks of each strain are occurring in 2011. These simultaneous conditions may increase the risk that the two virus strains might come into contact with each other more frequently, facilitating transfer of genomic material to form a hybrid

Overview of existing heat-health warning systems in Europe

The frequency of extreme heat events, such as the summer of 2003 in Europe, and their corresponding consequences for human beings are expected to increase under a warmer climate. The joint collaboration of institutional agencies and multidisciplinary approaches is essential for a successful development of heat-health warning systems and action plans which can reduce the impacts of extreme heat on the population. The present work constitutes a state-of-the-art review of 16 European heat-health warning systems and heat-health action plans, based on the existing literature, web search (over the National Meteorological Services websites) and questionnaires. The aim of this study is to pave the way for future heat-health warning systems, such as the one currently under development in the framework of the Horizon 2020 HEAT-SHIELD project. Some aspects are highlighted among the variety of examined European warning systems. The meteorological variables that trigger the warnings should present a clear link with the impact under consideration and should be chosen depending on the purpose and target of the warnings. Setting long-term planning actions as well as pre-alert levels might prevent and reduce damages due to heat. Finally, education and communication are key elements of the success of a warning systemFinancial support for this work is provided by the HEAT-SHIELD Project (HORIZON 2020, research and innovation programme under the grant agreement 668786)

Warning System Options for Landslide Risk: A Case Study in Upper Austria

This paper explores warning system options in the landslide-prone community of Gmunden/Gschliefgraben in Upper Austria. It describes stakeholder perspectives on the technical, social, economic, legal and institutional characteristics of a warning system. The perspectives differ on issues such as responsibility allocation in decisions regarding warnings, technologies used for monitoring and forecasting, costs and financial aspects, open data policies and the role of the residents. Drawing on the theory of plural rationality and based on a desk study and interviews, stakeholder perspectives and discourses on the warning system problem and its solution were elicited. The perspectives formed the basis for the specification of three technical policy options for a warning system in Gschliefgraben: a minimal-cost and cost-effective system; a technical-expert system; and a resident-centered system. The case demonstrates the importance of accounting for a plurality of values and preferences and of giving voice to competing discourses in communities contemplating warning systems or other public good policies. This paper concludes that understanding the different and often conflicting perspectives and technical policy options is the starting point for formulating an agreed compromise for an effective warning system. We describe the compromise solution in an accompanying paper included in this Special Issue

Developing an Efficient DMCIS with Next-Generation Wireless Networks

The impact of extreme events across the globe is extraordinary which continues to handicap the advancement of the struggling developing societies and threatens most of the industrialized countries in the globe. Various fields of Information and Communication Technology have widely been used for efficient disaster management; but only to a limited extent though, there is a tremendous potential for increasing efficiency and effectiveness in coping with disasters with the utilization of emerging wireless network technologies. Early warning, response to the particular situation and proper recovery are among the main focuses of an efficient disaster management system today. Considering these aspects, in this paper we propose a framework for developing an efficient Disaster Management Communications and Information System (DMCIS) which is basically benefited by the exploitation of the emerging wireless network technologies combined with other networking and data processing technologies.Comment: 6 page

A Secure Lightweight Approach of Node Membership Verification in Dense HDSN

In this paper, we consider a particular type of deployment scenario of a distributed sensor network (DSN), where sensors of different types and categories are densely deployed in the same target area. In this network, the sensors are associated with different groups, based on their functional types and after deployment they collaborate with one another in the same group for doing any assigned task for that particular group. We term this sort of DSN as a heterogeneous distributed sensor network (HDSN). Considering this scenario, we propose a secure membership verification mechanism using one-way accumulator (OWA) which ensures that, before collaborating for a particular task, any pair of nodes in the same deployment group can verify each other-s legitimacy of membership. Our scheme also supports addition and deletion of members (nodes) in a particular group in the HDSN. Our analysis shows that, the proposed scheme could work well in conjunction with other security mechanisms for sensor networks and is very effective to resist any adversary-s attempt to be included in a legitimate group in the network.Comment: 6 page

Development of tsunami early warning systems and future challenges

Fostered by and embedded in the general development of information and communications technology (ICT), the evolution of tsunami warning systems (TWS) shows a significant development from seismic-centred to multi-sensor system architectures using additional sensors (e.g. tide gauges and buoys) for the detection of tsunami waves in the ocean. <br><br> Currently, the beginning implementation of regional tsunami warning infrastructures indicates a new phase in the development of TWS. A new generation of TWS should not only be able to realise multi-sensor monitoring for tsunami detection. Moreover, these systems have to be capable to form a collaborative communication infrastructure of distributed tsunami warning systems in order to implement regional, ocean-wide monitoring and warning strategies. <br><br> In the context of the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and in the EU-funded FP6 project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination has been newly developed and demonstrated. In particular, standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS) have been successfully incorporated. <br><br> In the FP7 project Collaborative, Complex and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC), new developments in ICT (e.g. complex event processing (CEP) and event-driven architecture (EDA)) are used to extend the existing platform to realise a component-based technology framework for building distributed tsunami warning systems