Simulation Software as a Service and Service-Oriented Simulation Experiment

Simulation software is being increasingly used in various domains for system analysis and/or behavior prediction. Traditionally, researchers and field experts need to have access to the computers that host the simulation software to do simulation experiments. With recent advances in cloud computing and Software as a Service (SaaS), a new paradigm is emerging where simulation software is used as services that are composed with others and dynamically influence each other for service-oriented simulation experiment on the Internet. The new service-oriented paradigm brings new research challenges in composing multiple simulation services in a meaningful and correct way for simulation experiments. To systematically support simulation software as a service (SimSaaS) and service-oriented simulation experiment, we propose a layered framework that includes five layers: an infrastructure layer, a simulation execution engine layer, a simulation service layer, a simulation experiment layer and finally a graphical user interface layer. Within this layered framework, we provide a specification for both simulation experiment and the involved individual simulation services. Such a formal specification is useful in order to support systematic compositions of simulation services as well as automatic deployment of composed services for carrying out simulation experiments. Built on this specification, we identify the issue of mismatch of time granularity and event granularity in composing simulation services at the pragmatic level, and develop four types of granularity handling agents to be associated with the couplings between services. The ultimate goal is to achieve standard and automated approaches for simulation service composition in the emerging service-oriented computing environment. Finally, to achieve more efficient service-oriented simulation, we develop a profile-based partitioning method that exploits a system’s dynamic behavior and uses it as a profile to guide the spatial partitioning for more efficient parallel simulation. We develop the work in this dissertation within the application context of wildfire spread simulation, and demonstrate the effectiveness of our work based on this application

Direct radiative effect of the Russian wildfires and its impact on air temperature and atmospheric dynamics during August 2010

International audienceIn this study, we investigate the shortwave aerosol direct radiative forcing (ADRF) and its feedback on air temperature and atmospheric dynamics during a major fire event that occurred in Russia during August 2010. The methodology is based on an offline coupling between the CHIMERE chemistry-transport and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models. First, simulations for the period 5–12 August 2010 have been evaluated by using AERONET (AErosol RObotic NETwork) and satellite measurements of the POLarization and Directionality of the Earth's Reflectance (POLDER) and the Cloud-Aerosol LIdar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) sensors. During this period, elevated POLDER aerosol optical thickness (AOT) is found over a large part of eastern Europe, with values above 2 (at 550 nm) in the aerosol plume. According to CALIOP observations, particles remain confined to the first five kilometres of the atmospheric layer. Comparisons with satellite measurements show the ability of CHIMERE to reproduce the regional and vertical distribution of aerosols during their transport from the source region. Over Moscow, AERONET measurements indicate an important increase of AOT (340 nm) from 0.7 on 5 August to 2–4 between 6 and 10 August when the aerosol plume was advected over the city. Particles are mainly observed in the fine size mode (radius in the range 0.2–0.4 μm) and are characterized by elevated single-scattering albedo (SSA) (0.95–0.96 between 440 and 1020 nm). Comparisons of simulations with AERONET measurements show that aerosol physical–optical properties (size distribution, AOT, SSA) have been well simulated over Moscow in terms of intensity and/or spectral dependence. Secondly, modelled aerosol optical properties have been used as input in the radiative transfer code of WRF to evaluate their direct radiative impact. Simulations indicate a significant reduction of solar radiation at the ground (up to 80–150 W m−2 in diurnal averages over a large part of eastern Europe due to the presence of the aerosol plume. This ADRF causes an important reduction of the near-surface air temperature between 0.2 and 2.6° on a regional scale. Moscow has been affected by the aerosol plume, especially between 6 and 10 August. During this period, aerosol causes a significant reduction of surface shortwave radiation (up to 70–84 W m−2 in diurnal averages) with a moderate part (20–30%) due to solar absorption within the aerosol layer. The resulting feedbacks lead to a cooling of the air up to 1.6° at the surface and 0.1° at an altitude of 1500–2000 m (in diurnal averages), that contribute to stabilize the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). Indeed, a reduction of the ABL height of 13 to 65% has been simulated during daytime in presence of aerosols. This decrease is the result of a lower air entrainment as the vertical wind speed in the ABL is shown to be reduced by 5 to 80% (at midday) when the feedback of the ADRF is taken into account. However, the ADRF is shown to have a lower impact on the horizontal wind speed, suggesting that the dilution of particles would be mainly affected by the weakening of the ABL development and associated vertical entrainment. Indeed, CHIMERE simulations driven by the WRF meteorological fields including this ADRF feedback result in a large increase in the modelled near-surface PM10 concentrations (up to 99%). This is due to their lower vertical dilution in the ABL, which tend to reduce model biases with the ground PM10 values observed over Moscow during this specific period

PFHydro: A New Watershed-Scale Model for Post-Fire Runoff Simulation

Runoff increases after wildfires that burn vegetation and create a condition of soil-water repellence (SWR). A new post-fire watershed hydrological model, PFHydro, was created to explicitly simulate vegetation interception and SWR effects for four burn severity categories: high, medium, low severity and unburned. The model was applied to simulate post-fire runoff from the Upper Cache Creek Watershed in California, USA. Nash–Sutcliffe modeling efficiency (NSE) was used to assess model performance. The NSE was 0.80 and 0.88 for pre-fire water years (WY) 2000 and 2015, respectively. NSE was 0.88 and 0.93 for WYs 2016 (first year post-fire) and 2017 respectively. The simulated percentage of surface runoff in total runoff of WY 2016 was about six times that of pre-fire WY 2000 and three times that of WY 2015. The modeling results suggest that SWR is an important factor for post-fire runoff generation. The model was successful at simulating SWR behavior

Concentrations and Sources of Organic Carbon Aerosol in the Free Troposphere over North America

Aircraft measurements of water-soluble organic carbon (WSOC) aerosol over NE North America during summer 2004 (ITCT-2K4) are simulated with a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to test our understanding of the sources of organic carbon (OC) aerosol in the free troposphere (FT). Elevated concentrations were observed in plumes from boreal fires in Alaska and Canada. WSOC aerosol concentrations outside of these plumes average 0.9 ± 0.9 μg C m−3 in the FT (2–6 km). The corresponding model value is 0.7 ± 0.6 μg C m−3, including 42% from biomass burning, 36% from biogenic secondary organic aerosol (SOA), and 22% from anthropogenic emissions. Previous OC aerosol observations over the NW Pacific in spring 2001 (ACE-Asia) averaged 3.3 ± 2.8 μg C m−3 in the FT, compared to a model value of 0.3 ± 0.3 μg C m−3. WSOC aerosol concentrations in the boundary layer (BL) during ITCT-2K4 are consistent with OC aerosol observed at the IMPROVE surface network. The model is low in the boundary layer by 30%, which we attribute to secondary formation at a rate comparable to primary anthropogenic emission. Observed WSOC aerosol concentrations decrease by a factor of 2 from the BL to the FT, as compared to a factor of 10 decrease for sulfate, indicating that most of the WSOC aerosol in the FT originates in situ. Despite reproducing mean observed WSOC concentrations in the FT to within 25%, the model cannot account for the variance in the observations (R = 0.21). Covariance analysis of FT WSOC aerosol with other measured chemical variables suggests an aqueous-phase mechanism for SOA generation involving biogenic precursors.Earth and Planetary SciencesEngineering and Applied Science

More green and less blue water in the Alps during warmer summers

Climate change can reduce surface-water supply by enhancing evapotranspiration in forested mountains, especially during heatwaves. We investigate this ‘drought paradox’ for the European Alps using a 1,212-station database and hyper-resolution ecohydrological simulations to quantify blue (runoff) and green (evapotranspiration) water fluxes. During the 2003 heatwave, evapotranspiration in large areas over the Alps was above average despite low precipitation, amplifying the runoff deficit by 32% in the most runoff-productive areas (1,300–3,000 m above sea level). A 3 °C air temperature increase could enhance annual evapotranspiration by up to 100 mm (45 mm on average), which would reduce annual runoff at a rate similar to a 3% precipitation decrease. This suggests that green-water feedbacks—which are often poorly represented in large-scale model simulations—pose an additional threat to water resources, especially in dry summers. Despite uncertainty in the validation of the hyper-resolution ecohydrological modelling with observations, this approach permits more realistic predictions of mountain region water availability

Using artificial neural networks to predict future dryland responses to human and climate disturbances

Land degradation and sediment remobilisation in dryland environments is considered to be a significant global environmental problem. Given the potential for currently stabilised dune systems to reactivate under climate change and increased anthropogenic pressures, identifying the role of external disturbances in driving geomorphic response is vitally important. We developed a novel approach, using artificial neural networks (ANNs) applied to time series of historical reactivation-deposition events from the Nebraska Sandhills, to determine the relationship between historic periods of sand deposition in semi-arid grasslands and external climatic conditions, land use pressures and wildfire occurrence. We show that both vegetation growth and sediment re-deposition episodes can be accurately estimated. Sensitivity testing of individual factors shows that localised forcings (overgrazing and wildfire) have a statistically significant impact when the climate is held at present-day conditions. However, the dominant effect is climate-induced drought. Our approach has great potential for estimating future landscape sensitivity to climate and land use scenarios across a wide range of potentially fragile dryland environments

Fire as a Fundamental Ecological Process: Research Advances and Frontiers

Fire is a powerful ecological and evolutionary force that regulates organismal traits, population sizes, species interactions, community composition, carbon and nutrient cycling and ecosystem function. It also presents a rapidly growing societal challenge, due to both increasingly destructive wildfires and fire exclusion in fire‐dependent ecosystems. As an ecological process, fire integrates complex feedbacks among biological, social and geophysical processes, requiring coordination across several fields and scales of study. Here, we describe the diversity of ways in which fire operates as a fundamental ecological and evolutionary process on Earth. We explore research priorities in six categories of fire ecology: (a) characteristics of fire regimes, (b) changing fire regimes, (c) fire effects on above‐ground ecology, (d) fire effects on below‐ground ecology, (e) fire behaviour and (f) fire ecology modelling. We identify three emergent themes: the need to study fire across temporal scales, to assess the mechanisms underlying a variety of ecological feedbacks involving fire and to improve representation of fire in a range of modelling contexts. Synthesis: As fire regimes and our relationships with fire continue to change, prioritizing these research areas will facilitate understanding of the ecological causes and consequences of future fires and rethinking fire management alternatives