Dampening variability by using smoothing replenishment rules.

A major cause of supply chain deficiencies is the bullwhip effect which can be substantial even over a single echelon. This effect refers to the tendency of the variance of the replenishment orders to increase as it moves up a supply chain. Supply chain managers experience this variance amplification in both inventory levels and replenishment orders. As a result, companies face shortages or bloated inventories, run-away transportation and warehousing costs and major production adjustment costs. In this article we analyse a major cause of the bullwhip effect and suggest a remedy. We focus on a smoothing replenishment rule that is able to reduce the bullwhip effect across a single echelon. In general, dampening variability in orders may have a negative impact on customer service due to inventory variance increases. We therefore quantify the variance of the net stock and compute the required safety stock as a function of the smoothing required. Our analysis shows that bullwhip can be satisfactorily managed without unduly increasing stock levels to maintain target fill rates.Bullwhip effect; Companies; Cost; Costs; Impact; Inventory; Managers; Order; Replenishment rule; Rules; Safety stock; Supply chain; Supply chain management; Variability; Variance; Variance reduction;

Managing the bullwhip effect in multi-echelon supply chains

This editorial article presents the bullwhip effect which is one of the major problems faced by supply chain management. The bullwhip effect represents the demand variability amplification as demand information travels upstream in the supply chain. The bullwhip effect research has been attempting to prove its existence, identify its causes, quantify its magnitude and propose mitigation and avoidance solutions. Previous research has relied on different modeling approaches to quantify the bullwhip effect and to investigate the proposed mitigation/avoidance solutions. Extensive research has shown that smoothing replenishment rules and collaboration in supply chain are the most powerful approaches to counteract the bullwhip effect. The objective of this article is to highlight the bullwhip effect avoidance approaches with providing some interesting directions for future research

Exploring the bullwhip effect by means of spreadsheet simulation.

An important supply chain research problem is the bullwhip effect: demand fluctuations increase as one moves up the supply chain from retailer to manufacturer. It has been recognized that demand forecasting and ordering policies are two of the key causes of the bullwhip effect. In this paper we present a spreadsheet application, which explores a series of replenishment policies and forecasting techniques under different demand patterns. It illustrates how tuning the parameters of the replenishment policy induces or reduces the bullwhip effect. Moreover, we demonstrate how bullwhip reduction (order variability dampening) may have an adverse impact on inventory holdings. Indeed, order smoothing may increase inventory fluctuations resulting in poorer customer service. As such, the spreadsheets can be used as an educational tool to gain a clear insight into the use or abuse of inventory control policies and improper forecasting in relation to the bullwhip effect and customer service. Keywords: Bullwhip effect, forecasting techniques, replenishment rules, inventory fluctuations, spreadsheet simulationBullwhip; Bullwhip effect; Forecasting techniques; Inventory fluctuations; Replenishment rule; Simulation; Spreadsheet simulation;

Exploring the bullwhip effect by means of spreadsheet simulation.

One of the main supply chain deficiencies is the bullwhip effect: demand fluctuations increase as one moves up the supply chain from retailer to manufacturer. The Beer Distribution Game is widely known for illustrating these supply chain dynamics in class. In this paper we present a spreadsheet application, exploring the two key causes of the bullwhip effect: demand forecasting and the type of ordering policy. We restrict our attention to a single product two-echelon system and illustrate how tuning the parameters of the replenishment policy induces or reduces the bullwhip effect. We also demonstrate how bullwhip reduction (dampening the order variability) may have an adverse impact on inventory holdings and/or customer service. As such, the spreadsheets can be used as an educational tool to gain a clear insight into the use of inventory control policies and forecasting in relation to the bullwhip effect and customer service.Bullwhip effect; Replenishment rules; Forecasting techniques; Spreadsheet simulation; Beer distribution game;

Smooth is smart: bullwhip, inventory, fill-rates and the golden ratio.

Inventory;

The value of coordination in a two echelon supply chain: Sharing information, policies and parameters.

We study a coordination scheme in a two echelon supply chain. It involves sharing details of replenishment rules, lead-times, demand patterns and tuning the replenishment rules to exploit the supply chain's cost structure. We examine four different coordination strategies; naïve operation, local optimisation, global optimisation and altruistic behaviour on behalf of the retailer. We assume the retailer and the manufacturer use the Order-Up-To policy to determine replenishment orders and end consumers demand is a stationary i.i.d. random variable. We derive the variance of the retailer's order rate and inventory levels and the variance of the manufacturer's order rate and inventory levels. We initially assume that costs in the supply chain are directly proportional to these variances (and later the standard deviations) and investigate the options available to the supply chain members for minimising costs. Our results show that if the retailer takes responsibility for supply chain cost reduction and acts altruistically by dampening his order variability, then the performance enhancement is robust to both the actual costs in the supply chain and to a naïve or uncooperative manufacturer. Superior performance is achievable if firms coordinate their actions and if they find ways to re-allocate the supply chain gain.Bullwhip; Global optimisation; Inventory variance; Local optimisation; Supply chains; Studies; Coordination; Supply chain; IT; Replenishment rule; Rules; Demand; Patterns; Cost; Structure; Strategy; Retailer; Policy; Order; Variance; Inventory; Costs; Options; Variability; Performance; Performance enhancement; Firms;

Judgement and supply chain dynamics

Forecasting demand at the individual stock-keeping-unit (SKU) level often necessitates the use of statistical methods, such as exponential smoothing. In some organizations, however, statistical forecasts will be subject to judgemental adjustments by managers. Although a number of empirical and ‘laboratory’ studies have been performed in this area, no formal OR modelling has been conducted to offer insights into the impact such adjustments may have on supply chain performance and the potential development of mitigation mechanisms. This is because of the associated dynamic complexity and the situation-specific nature of the problem at hand. In conjunction with appropriate stock control rules, demand forecasts help decide how much to order. It is a common practice that replenishment orders may also be subject to judgemental intervention, adding further to the dynamic system complexity and interdependence. The system dynamics (SD) modelling method can help advance knowledge in this area, where mathematical modelling cannot accommodate the associated complexity. This study, which constitutes part of a UK government funded (EPSRC) project, uses SD models to evaluate the effects of forecasting and ordering adjustments for a wide set of scenarios involving: three different inventory policies; seven different (combinations of) points of intervention; and four different (combinations of) types of judgmental intervention (optimistic and pessimistic). The results enable insights to be gained into the performance of the entire supply chain. An agenda for further research concludes the paper