Traffic Time Headway Prediction and Analysis: A Deep Learning Approach

In the modern world of Intelligent Transportation System (ITS), time headway is a key traffic flow parameter affecting ITS operations and planning. Defined as “the time difference between any two successive vehicles when they cross a given point”, time headway is used in various traffic and transportation engineering research domains, such as capacity analysis, safety studies, car-following, and lane-changing behavior modeling, and level of service evaluation describing stochastic features of traffic flow. Advanced travel and headway information can also help road users avoid traffic congestion through dynamic route planning, for instance. Hence, it is crucial to accurately model headway distribution patterns for the purpose of analyzing traffic operations and making subsequent infrastructure-related decisions. Previous studies have applied a variety of probabilistic models, machine learning algorithms (for example, support vector machine, relevance vector machine, etc.), and neural networks for short-term headway prediction. Recently, deep learning has become increasingly popular following a surge of traffic big data with high resolution, thriving algorithms, and evolved computational capacity. However, only a few studies have exploited this emerging technology for headway prediction applications. This is largely due to the difficulty in capturing the random, seasonal, nonlinear, and spatiotemporal correlated nature of traffic data and asymmetric human driving behavior which has a significant impact on headway. This study employs a novel architecture of deep neural networks, Long Short-Term Neural Network (LSTM NN), to capture nonlinear traffic dynamics effectively to predict vehicle headway. LSTM NN can overcome the issue of back-propagated error decay (that is, vanishing gradient problem) existing in regular Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) through memory blocks which is its special feature, and thus exhibits superior capability for time series prediction with long temporal dependency. There is no existing appropriate model for long term prediction of traffic headway, as existing models lack using big dataset and solving the vanishing gradient problem because of not having a memory block. To overcome these critics and fill the gaps in previous works, multiple LSTM layers are stacked to incorporate temporal information. For model training and validation, this study used the USDOT’s Next Generation Simulation (NGSIM) dataset, which contains historical data of some important features to describe the headway distribution such as lane numbers, microscopic traffic flow parameters, vehicle and road shape, vehicle type, and velocity. LSTM NN can capture the historical relationships between these variables and save them using its unique memory block. At the headway prediction stage, the related spatiotemporal features from the dataset (HighwayI-80) were fed into a fully connected layer and again tested with testing data for validation (both highway I-80 & US 101). The predicted accuracy outperforms previous time headway predictions

Machine Learning Approaches for Traffic Flow Forecasting

Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) as a field has emerged quite rapidly in the recent years. A competitive solution coupled with big data gathered for ITS applications needs the latest AI to drive the ITS for the smart and effective public transport planning and management. Although there is a strong need for ITS applications like Advanced Route Planning (ARP) and Traffic Control Systems (TCS) to take the charge and require the minimum of possible human interventions. This thesis develops the models that can predict the traffic link flows on a junction level such as road traffic flows for a freeway or highway road for all traffic conditions. The research first reviews the state-of-the-art time series data prediction techniques with a deep focus in the field of transport Engineering along with the existing statistical and machine leaning methods and their applications for the freeway traffic flow prediction. This review setup a firm work focussed on the view point to look for the superiority in term of prediction performance of individual statistical or machine learning models over another. A detailed theoretical attention has been given, to learn the structure and working of individual chosen prediction models, in relation to the traffic flow data. In modelling the traffic flows from the real-world Highway England (HE) gathered dataset, a traffic flow objective function for highway road prediction models is proposed in a 3-stage framework including the topological breakdown of traffic network into virtual patches, further into nodes and to the basic links flow profiles behaviour estimations. The proposed objective function is tested with ten different prediction models including the statistical, shallow and deep learning constructed hybrid models for bi-directional links flow prediction methods. The effectiveness of the proposed objective function greatly enhances the accuracy of traffic flow prediction, regardless of the machine learning model used. The proposed prediction objective function base framework gives a new approach to model the traffic network to better understand the unknown traffic flow waves and the resulting congestions caused on a junction level. In addition, the results of applied Machine Learning models indicate that RNN variant LSTMs based models in conjunction with neural networks and Deep CNNs, when applied through the proposed objective function, outperforms other chosen machine learning methods for link flow predictions. The experimentation based practical findings reveal that to arrive at an efficient, robust, offline and accurate prediction model apart from feeding the ML mode with the correct representation of the network data, attention should be paid to the deep learning model structure, data pre-processing (i.e. normalisation) and the error matrices used for data behavioural learning. The proposed framework, in future can be utilised to address one of the main aims of the smart transport systems i.e. to reduce the error rates in network wide congestion predictions and the inflicted general traffic travel time delays in real-time

Learning for Optimization with Virtual Savant

Optimization problems arising in multiple fields of study demand efficient algorithms that can exploit modern parallel computing platforms. The remarkable development of machine learning offers an opportunity to incorporate learning into optimization algorithms to efficiently solve large and complex problems. This thesis explores Virtual Savant, a paradigm that combines machine learning and parallel computing to solve optimization problems. Virtual Savant is inspired in the Savant Syndrome, a mental condition where patients excel at a specific ability far above the average. In analogy to the Savant Syndrome, Virtual Savant extracts patterns from previously-solved instances to learn how to solve a given optimization problem in a massively-parallel fashion. In this thesis, Virtual Savant is applied to three optimization problems related to software engineering, task scheduling, and public transportation. The efficacy of Virtual Savant is evaluated in different computing platforms and the experimental results are compared against exact and approximate solutions for both synthetic and realistic instances of the studied problems. Results show that Virtual Savant can find accurate solutions, effectively scale in the problem dimension, and take advantage of the availability of multiple computing resources.Los problemas de optimización que surgen en múltiples campos de estudio demandan algoritmos eficientes que puedan explotar las plataformas modernas de computación paralela. El notable desarrollo del aprendizaje automático ofrece la oportunidad de incorporar el aprendizaje en algoritmos de optimización para resolver problemas complejos y de grandes dimensiones de manera eficiente. Esta tesis explora Savant Virtual, un paradigma que combina aprendizaje automático y computación paralela para resolver problemas de optimización. Savant Virtual está inspirado en el Sı́ndrome de Savant, una condición mental en la que los pacientes se destacan en una habilidad especı́fica muy por encima del promedio. En analogı́a con el sı́ndrome de Savant, Savant Virtual extrae patrones de instancias previamente resueltas para aprender a resolver un determinado problema de optimización de forma masivamente paralela. En esta tesis, Savant Virtual se aplica a tres problemas de optimización relacionados con la ingenierı́a de software, la planificación de tareas y el transporte público. La eficacia de Savant Virtual se evalúa en diferentes plataformas informáticas y los resultados se comparan con soluciones exactas y aproximadas para instancias tanto sintéticas como realistas de los problemas estudiados. Los resultados muestran que Savant Virtual puede encontrar soluciones precisas, escalar eficazmente en la dimensión del problema y aprovechar la disponibilidad de múltiples recursos de cómputo.Fundación Carolina Agencia Nacional de Investigación e Innovación (ANII, Uruguay) Universidad de Cádiz Universidad de la Repúblic

Assisted specification of discrete choice models

Determining appropriate utility specifications for discrete choice models is time-consuming and prone to errors. With the availability of larger and larger datasets, as the number of possible specifications exponentially grows with the number of variables under consideration, the analysts need to spend increasing amounts of time on searching for good models through trial-and-error, while expert knowledge is required to ensure these models are sound. This paper proposes an algorithm that aims at assisting modelers in their search. Our approach translates the task into a multi-objective combinatorial optimization problem and makes use of a variant of the variable neighborhood search algorithm to generate sets of promising model specifications. We apply the algorithm both to semi-synthetic data and to real mode choice datasets as a proof of concept. The results demonstrate its ability to provide relevant insights in reasonable amounts of time so as to effectively assist the modeler in developing interpretable and powerful models

Real-time crash prediction models: State-of-the-art, design pathways and ubiquitous requirements

Proactive traffic safety management systems can monitor traffic conditions in real-time, identify the formation of unsafe traffic dynamics, and implement suitable interventions to bring unsafe conditions back to normal traffic situations. Recent advancements in artificial intelligence, sensor fusion and algorithms have brought about the introduction of a proactive safety management system closer to reality. The basic prerequisite for developing such a system is to have a reliable crash prediction model that takes real-time traffic data as input and evaluates their association with crash risk. Since the early 21st century, several studies have focused on developing such models. Although the idea has considerably matured over time, the endeavours have been quite discrete and fragmented at best because the fundamental aspects of the overall modelling approach substantially vary. Therefore, a number of transitional challenges have to be identified and subsequently addressed before a ubiquitous proactive safety management system can be formulated, designed and implemented in real-world scenarios. This manuscript conducts a comprehensive review of existing real-time crash prediction models with the aim of illustrating the state-of-the-art and systematically synthesizing the thoughts presented in existing studies in order to facilitate its translation from an idea into a ready to use technology. Towards that journey, it conducts a systematic review by applying various text mining methods and topic modelling. Based on the findings, this paper ascertains the development pathways followed in various studies, formulates the ubiquitous design requirements of such models from existing studies and knowledge of similar systems. Finally, this study evaluates the universality and design compatibility of existing models. This paper is, therefore, expected to serve as a one stop knowledge source for facilitating a faster transition from the idea of real-time crash prediction models to a real-world operational proactive traffic safety management system

Vehicle-group-based Crash Risk Formation and Propagation Analysis for Expressways

Previous studies in predicting crash risk primarily associated the number or likelihood of crashes on a road segment with traffic parameters or geometric characteristics of the segment, usually neglecting the impact of vehicles' continuous movement and interactions with nearby vehicles. Advancements in communication technologies have empowered driving information collected from surrounding vehicles, enabling the study of group-based crash risks. Based on high-resolution vehicle trajectory data, this research focused on vehicle groups as the subject of analysis and explored risk formation and propagation mechanisms considering features of vehicle groups and road segments. Several key factors contributing to crash risks were identified, including past high-risk vehicle-group states, complex vehicle behaviors, high percentage of large vehicles, frequent lane changes within a vehicle group, and specific road geometries. A multinomial logistic regression model was developed to analyze the spatial risk propagation patterns, which were classified based on the trend of high-risk occurrences within vehicle groups. The results indicated that extended periods of high-risk states, increase in vehicle-group size, and frequent lane changes are associated with adverse risk propagation patterns. Conversely, smoother traffic flow and high initial crash risk values are linked to risk dissipation. Furthermore, the study conducted sensitivity analysis on different types of classifiers, prediction time intervalsss and adaptive TTC thresholds. The highest AUC value for vehicle-group risk prediction surpassed 0.93. The findings provide valuable insights to researchers and practitioners in understanding and prediction of vehicle-group safety, ultimately improving active traffic safety management and operations of Connected and Autonomous Vehicles.Comment: 14 pages, 8 figure

Automated Speed and Lane Change decision-making Model using Support Vector Machine

One of the major obstacles that the auto industry must overcome is the rise of autonomous vehicles. The study of lane-changing is an important part of this problem. Previous studies on autonomous vehicle lane changes have predominantly focused on lane change path planning and path monitoring, with limited attention given to the autonomous vehicle's lane change decision-making process. This paper introduces a novel Lane Change Decision-Making Model for autonomous vehicles using the Support Vector Machine (SVM) method. The suggested model employs real-time sensor data to assess whether or not a lane change is possible, taking into account the proximity of other vehicles (cars, buses, motorbikes), and adjusting speed as necessary to ensure a seamless transition. Researching the various facets of lane changes in autonomous vehicles allows for decision-making that is grounded in utility, safety, and tolerance. The implementation of a support vector machine (SVM) technique with Bayesian parameter optimization is used to deal with the non-linearity and complexity of the process of autonomous lane change decision-making. Finally, we compare the suggested SVM model against a rule-based lane change model using the test data. The SVM-based strategy is shown to improve lane change decision-making in a comprehensive simulation exercise, which in turn improves the safety and efficiency of autonomous driving systems. The experiment also use a real vehicle to gauge the efficacy of the underlying decision-making model