Probabilistic Modelling of the Impact on Bus Punctuality of a Speed Limit Proposal in Edinburgh

We propose a data-driven methodology for evaluating the impact of the introduction of a speed limit on the punctuality of bus services. In particular, we use high-frequency Automatic Vehicle Location data to parameterise a model that represents the movement of a bus along predefined patches of the route. We fit the probability distributions of the time spent in each patch to two classes of probability distributions: hyper-Erlang distributions, for which we use the tool HyperStar, and a variation of the three-parameter gamma distributions recommended by the Traffic Engineering Handbook. In both cases we obtain models that can be expressed using the framework of Probabilistic Timed Automata, allowing us to evaluate bus punctuality using the model checking tool UPPAAL. We conduct a case study involving a proposed speed limit in Edinburgh

Train planning in a fragmented railway: a British perspective

Train Planning (also known as railway scheduling) is an area of substantial importance to the success of any railway. Through train planning, railway managers aim to meet the needs of customers whilst using as low a level of resources (infrastructure, rolling stock and staff) as possible. Efficient and effective train planning is essential to get the best possible performance out of a railway network. The author of this thesis aims, firstly, to analyse the processes which are used to develop train plans and the extent to which they meet the objectives that they might be expected to meet and, secondly, to investigate selected new and innovative software approaches that might make a material difference to the effectiveness and/or efficiency of train planning processes. These aims are delivered using a range of primarily qualitative research methods, including literature reviews, interviews, participant observation and case studies, to understand these processes and software. Conclusions regarding train planning processes include how the complexity of these processes hinders their effectiveness, the negative impact of the privatisation of British Rail on these processes and the conflicting nature of objectives for train planning in the privatised railway. Train planning software is found not to adequately support train planners in meeting the objectives they are set. The potential for timetable generation using heuristics and for timetable performance simulation to improve the effectiveness of train planning are discussed and recommendations made for further research and development to address the limitations of the software currently available

SPATIAL TRANSFORMATION PATTERN DUE TO COMMERCIAL ACTIVITY IN KAMPONG HOUSE

ABSTRACT Kampung houses are houses in kampung area of the city. Kampung House oftenly transformed into others use as urban dynamics. One of the transfomation is related to the commercial activities addition by the house owner. It make house with full private space become into mixused house with more public spaces or completely changed into full public commercial building. This study investigate the spatial transformation pattern of the kampung houses due to their commercial activities addition. Site observations, interviews and questionnaires were performed to study the spatial transformation. This study found that in kampung houses, the spatial transformation pattern was depend on type of commercial activities and owner perceptions, and there are several steps of the spatial transformation related the commercial activity addition. Keywords: spatial transformation pattern; commercial activity; owner perception, kampung house; adaptabilit

3D-in-2D Displays for ATC.

This paper reports on the efforts and accomplishments of the 3D-in-2D Displays for ATC project at the end of Year 1. We describe the invention of 10 novel 3D/2D visualisations that were mostly implemented in the Augmented Reality ARToolkit. These prototype implementations of visualisation and interaction elements can be viewed on the accompanying video. We have identified six candidate design concepts which we will further research and develop. These designs correspond with the early feasibility studies stage of maturity as defined by the NASA Technology Readiness Level framework. We developed the Combination Display Framework from a review of the literature, and used it for analysing display designs in terms of display technique used and how they are combined. The insights we gained from this framework then guided our inventions and the human-centered innovation process we use to iteratively invent. Our designs are based on an understanding of user work practices. We also developed a simple ATC simulator that we used for rapid experimentation and evaluation of design ideas. We expect that if this project continues, the effort in Year 2 and 3 will be focus on maturing the concepts and employment in a operational laboratory settings

Proceedings of the Conference on Production Systems and Logistics: CPSL 2022

[no abstract available

Influences on aircraft target off-block time prediction accuracy

With Airport Collaborative Decision Making (A-CDM) as a generic concept of working together of all airport partners, the main aim of this research project was to increase the understanding of the Influences on the Target Off-Block Time (TOBT) Prediction Accuracy during A-CDM. Predicting the TOBT accurately is important, because all airport partners use it as a reference time for the departure of the flights after the aircraft turn-round. Understanding such influencing factors is therefore not only required for finding measures to counteract inaccurate TOBT predictions, but also for establishing a more efficient A-CDM turn-round process. The research method chosen comprises a number of steps. Firstly, within the framework of a Cognitive Work Analysis, the sub-processes as well as the information requirements during turn-round were analysed. Secondly, a survey approach aimed at finding and describing situations during turn-round that are critical for TOBT adherence was pursued. The problems identified here were then investigated in field observations at different airlines’ operation control rooms. Based on the findings from these previous steps, small-scale human-in-the-loop experiments were designed aimed at testing hypotheses about data/information availability that influence TOBT predictability. A turn-round monitoring tool was developed for the experiments. As a result of this project, the critical chain of turn-round events and the decisions necessary during all stages of the turn-round were identified. It was concluded that information required but not shared among participants can result in TOBT inaccuracy swings. In addition, TOBT predictability was shown to depend on the location of the TOBT turn-round controller who assigns the TOBT: More reliable TOBT predictions were observed when the turn-round controller was physically present at the aircraft. During the experiments, TOBT prediction could be improved by eight minutes, if available information was cooperatively shared ten minutes prior turn-round start between air crews and turn-round controller; TOBT prediction could be improved by 15 minutes, if additional information was provided by ramp agents five minutes after turnround start

The measurement of passenger preferences towards rail station and on-train facilities

This study is concerned with the provision of passenger facilities, such as catering or information, at rail stations and on trains. It takes the premise that appraisal methods vised by rail operators and planners for evaluating investment in such facilities are limited. The result can be under-investment in such facilities. It makes the case that such facilities are important devices for inproving the quality of rail travel and that under-investment in facilities implies reduced demand for rail services. It is suggested that stated preference (SP) techniques, already applied to this topic on a number of occasions, are effective methods for measuring the monetary equivalent values of passenger facilities. These values can be inserted into investment appraisal methods based on financial criteria or cost-benefit analysis. However, previous applications of SP techniques have exhibited a number of weaknesses, which have called into question the plausibility of some of the values that have been obtained. This study reports on research on the London Underground, investigating the potential introduction of a range of improvements to passenger facilities on the Northern Line. In this original work, discrete choice SP methods were used to measure the values of these improvements in a way that will produce more plausible results, it is argued, than those derived from earlier SP applications. The research showed that appreciably lower valuations were obtained with this method

The Impact of Vertical Separation on Regional Railways: The Case of Veneto and Friuli Venezia Giulia

This article features an in-depth analysis of the most significant issues in the regionalisation process of railway competencies with the introduction of "tenders" to select the service providers. This analysis is carried out through the observation of the existing situation in a specific geographic area: the north-eastern part of Italy (comprising the regions of Veneto, Friuli-Venezia Giulia, and Trentino Alto Adige). The results of the case study analysis lead to believe that the regional authorities themselves are interested in maintaining very good relationships with the incumbents over the preparation of the tenders. Indeed, the incumbents may provide the necessary support for the setting up of regional companies, subject to local authority\u2019s control, which seem to be a long term implicit objective of the local authorities