44,894 research outputs found
Verification tools for probabilistic forecasts of continuous hydrological variables
In the present paper we describe some methods for verifying and evaluating probabilistic forecasts of hydrological variables. We propose an extension to continuous-valued variables of a verification method originated in the meteorological literature for the analysis of binary variables, and based on the use of a suitable cost-loss function to evaluate the quality of the forecasts. We find that this procedure is useful and reliable when it is complemented with other verification tools, borrowed from the economic literature, which are addressed to verify the statistical correctness of the probabilistic forecast. We illustrate our findings with a detailed application to the evaluation of probabilistic and deterministic forecasts of hourly discharge value
Statistical Model Checking : An Overview
Quantitative properties of stochastic systems are usually specified in logics
that allow one to compare the measure of executions satisfying certain temporal
properties with thresholds. The model checking problem for stochastic systems
with respect to such logics is typically solved by a numerical approach that
iteratively computes (or approximates) the exact measure of paths satisfying
relevant subformulas; the algorithms themselves depend on the class of systems
being analyzed as well as the logic used for specifying the properties. Another
approach to solve the model checking problem is to \emph{simulate} the system
for finitely many runs, and use \emph{hypothesis testing} to infer whether the
samples provide a \emph{statistical} evidence for the satisfaction or violation
of the specification. In this short paper, we survey the statistical approach,
and outline its main advantages in terms of efficiency, uniformity, and
simplicity.Comment: non
Smart Sampling for Lightweight Verification of Markov Decision Processes
Markov decision processes (MDP) are useful to model optimisation problems in
concurrent systems. To verify MDPs with efficient Monte Carlo techniques
requires that their nondeterminism be resolved by a scheduler. Recent work has
introduced the elements of lightweight techniques to sample directly from
scheduler space, but finding optimal schedulers by simple sampling may be
inefficient. Here we describe "smart" sampling algorithms that can make
substantial improvements in performance.Comment: IEEE conference style, 11 pages, 5 algorithms, 11 figures, 1 tabl
Scalable Verification of Markov Decision Processes
Markov decision processes (MDP) are useful to model concurrent process
optimisation problems, but verifying them with numerical methods is often
intractable. Existing approximative approaches do not scale well and are
limited to memoryless schedulers. Here we present the basis of scalable
verification for MDPSs, using an O(1) memory representation of
history-dependent schedulers. We thus facilitate scalable learning techniques
and the use of massively parallel verification.Comment: V4: FMDS version, 12 pages, 4 figure
Formal Verification of Probabilistic SystemC Models with Statistical Model Checking
Transaction-level modeling with SystemC has been very successful in
describing the behavior of embedded systems by providing high-level executable
models, in which many of them have inherent probabilistic behaviors, e.g.,
random data and unreliable components. It thus is crucial to have both
quantitative and qualitative analysis of the probabilities of system
properties. Such analysis can be conducted by constructing a formal model of
the system under verification and using Probabilistic Model Checking (PMC).
However, this method is infeasible for large systems, due to the state space
explosion. In this article, we demonstrate the successful use of Statistical
Model Checking (SMC) to carry out such analysis directly from large SystemC
models and allow designers to express a wide range of useful properties. The
first contribution of this work is a framework to verify properties expressed
in Bounded Linear Temporal Logic (BLTL) for SystemC models with both timed and
probabilistic characteristics. Second, the framework allows users to expose a
rich set of user-code primitives as atomic propositions in BLTL. Moreover,
users can define their own fine-grained time resolution rather than the
boundary of clock cycles in the SystemC simulation. The third contribution is
an implementation of a statistical model checker. It contains an automatic
monitor generation for producing execution traces of the
model-under-verification (MUV), the mechanism for automatically instrumenting
the MUV, and the interaction with statistical model checking algorithms.Comment: Journal of Software: Evolution and Process. Wiley, 2017. arXiv admin
note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1507.0818
Efficient Parallel Statistical Model Checking of Biochemical Networks
We consider the problem of verifying stochastic models of biochemical
networks against behavioral properties expressed in temporal logic terms. Exact
probabilistic verification approaches such as, for example, CSL/PCTL model
checking, are undermined by a huge computational demand which rule them out for
most real case studies. Less demanding approaches, such as statistical model
checking, estimate the likelihood that a property is satisfied by sampling
executions out of the stochastic model. We propose a methodology for
efficiently estimating the likelihood that a LTL property P holds of a
stochastic model of a biochemical network. As with other statistical
verification techniques, the methodology we propose uses a stochastic
simulation algorithm for generating execution samples, however there are three
key aspects that improve the efficiency: first, the sample generation is driven
by on-the-fly verification of P which results in optimal overall simulation
time. Second, the confidence interval estimation for the probability of P to
hold is based on an efficient variant of the Wilson method which ensures a
faster convergence. Third, the whole methodology is designed according to a
parallel fashion and a prototype software tool has been implemented that
performs the sampling/verification process in parallel over an HPC
architecture
How to make unforgeable money in generalised probabilistic theories
We discuss the possibility of creating money that is physically impossible to
counterfeit. Of course, "physically impossible" is dependent on the theory that
is a faithful description of nature. Currently there are several proposals for
quantum money which have their security based on the validity of quantum
mechanics. In this work, we examine Wiesner's money scheme in the framework of
generalised probabilistic theories. This framework is broad enough to allow for
essentially any potential theory of nature, provided that it admits an
operational description. We prove that under a quantifiable version of the
no-cloning theorem, one can create physical money which has an exponentially
small chance of being counterfeited. Our proof relies on cone programming, a
natural generalisation of semidefinite programming. Moreover, we discuss some
of the difficulties that arise when considering non-quantum theories.Comment: 27 pages, many diagrams. Comments welcom
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