Predicting wind energy generation with recurrent neural networks

Decarbonizing the energy supply requires extensive use of renewable generation. Their intermittent nature requires to obtain accurate forecasts of future generation, at short, mid and long term. Wind Energy generation prediction is based on the ability to forecast wind intensity. This problem has been approached using two families of methods one based on weather forecasting input (Numerical Weather Model Prediction) and the other based on past observations (time series forecasting). This work deals with the application of Deep Learning to wind time series. Wind Time series are non-linear and non-stationary, making their forecasting very challenging. Deep neural networks have shown their success recently for problems involving sequences with non-linear behavior. In this work, we perform experiments comparing the capability of different neural network architectures for multi-step forecasting in a 12 h ahead prediction. For the Time Series input we used the US National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s WIND Dataset [3], (the largest available wind and energy dataset with over 120,000 physical wind sites), this dataset is evenly spread across all the North America geography which has allowed us to obtain conclusions on the relationship between physical site complexity and forecast accuracy. In the preliminary results of this work it can be seen a relationship between the error (measured as R2R2 ) and the complexity of the terrain, and a better accuracy score by some Recurrent Neural Network Architectures.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Wind energy forecasting with neural networks: a literature review

Renewable energy is intermittent by nature and to integrate this energy into the Grid while assuring safety and stability the accurate forecasting of there newable energy generation is critical. Wind Energy prediction is based on the ability to forecast wind. There are many methods for wind forecasting based on the statistical properties of the wind time series and in the integration of meteorological information, these methods are being used commercially around the world. But one family of new methods for wind power fore castingis surging based on Machine Learning Deep Learning techniques. This paper analyses the characteristics of the Wind Speed time series data and performs a literature review of recently published works of wind power forecasting using Machine Learning approaches (neural and deep learning networks), which have been published in the last few years.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

RANS Turbulence Model Development using CFD-Driven Machine Learning

This paper presents a novel CFD-driven machine learning framework to develop Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) models. The CFD-driven training is an extension of the gene expression programming method (Weatheritt and Sandberg, 2016), but crucially the fitness of candidate models is now evaluated by running RANS calculations in an integrated way, rather than using an algebraic function. Unlike other data-driven methods that fit the Reynolds stresses of trained models to high-fidelity data, the cost function for the CFD-driven training can be defined based on any flow feature from the CFD results. This extends the applicability of the method especially when the training data is limited. Furthermore, the resulting model, which is the one providing the most accurate CFD results at the end of the training, inherently shows good performance in RANS calculations. To demonstrate the potential of this new method, the CFD-driven machine learning approach is applied to model development for wake mixing in turbomachines. A new model is trained based on a high-pressure turbine case and then tested for three additional cases, all representative of modern turbine nozzles. Despite the geometric configurations and operating conditions being different among the cases, the predicted wake mixing profiles are significantly improved in all of these a posteriori tests. Moreover, the model equation is explicitly given and available for analysis, thus it could be deduced that the enhanced wake prediction is predominantly due to the extra diffusion introduced by the CFD-driven model.Comment: Accepted by Journal of Computational Physic

[Report of] Specialist Committee V.4: ocean, wind and wave energy utilization

The committee's mandate was :Concern for structural design of ocean energy utilization devices, such as offshore wind turbines, support structures and fixed or floating wave and tidal energy converters. Attention shall be given to the interaction between the load and the structural response and shall include due consideration of the stochastic nature of the waves, current and wind

Go with the flow: Recurrent networks for wind time series multi-step forecasting

One of the ways of reducing the effects of Climate Change is to rely on renewable energy sources. Their intermittent nature makes necessary to obtain a mid-long term accurate forecasting. Wind Energy prediction is based on the ability to forecast wind speed. This has been a problem approached using different methods based on the statistical properties of the wind time series. Wind Time series are non-linear and non-stationary, making their forecasting very challenging. Deep neural networks have shown their success recently for problems involving sequences with non-linear behavior. In this work, we perform experiments comparing the capability of different neural network architectures for multi-step forecasting obtaining a 12 hours ahead prediction using data from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's WIND datasetPeer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Prediction of Vibration in the Discharge Ring of a River Type Hydroelectric Power Plant with Bulb Turbine Using Artificial Neural Networks and Support Vector Machine

Cracks are formed around the manhole covers located in the discharge ring areas of the turbine units of a hydroelectric power plant with a river-type bulb turbine due to the vibration of the units. Determining the operating parameters for the low vibration zone of the units to reduce or eliminate these cracks is an important issue in terms of reducing plant operating efficiency and maintenance costs. To solve this problem and to determine the central operating parameters in the safe vibration zone, a vibration prediction model was created with artificial neural networks and support vector machine. Operating parameters of the hydroelectric power plant; artificial neural networks and support vector machine were created to predict vibrations for each turbine unit using the water inlet-outlet height, network pollution level, power of each unit, total unit power, and vibration data from the discharge rings of the units. Vibration estimates were made based on operating parameters and compared with actual vibration values. The results obtained showed that the operating parameters for reducing the vibration values of the turbine units of the hydroelectric power plant could be determined practically with the help of artificial neural networks and support vector machine

State of the Art in the Optimisation of Wind Turbine Performance Using CFD

Wind energy has received increasing attention in recent years due to its sustainability and geographically wide availability. The efficiency of wind energy utilisation highly depends on the performance of wind turbines, which convert the kinetic energy in wind into electrical energy. In order to optimise wind turbine performance and reduce the cost of next-generation wind turbines, it is crucial to have a view of the state of the art in the key aspects on the performance optimisation of wind turbines using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), which has attracted enormous interest in the development of next-generation wind turbines in recent years. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the state-of-the-art progress on optimisation of wind turbine performance using CFD, reviewing the objective functions to judge the performance of wind turbine, CFD approaches applied in the simulation of wind turbines and optimisation algorithms for wind turbine performance. This paper has been written for both researchers new to this research area by summarising underlying theory whilst presenting a comprehensive review on the up-to-date studies, and experts in the field of study by collecting a comprehensive list of related references where the details of computational methods that have been employed lately can be obtained

Wind turbine noise prediction using random forest regression

Wind energy is one of the most widely used renewable energy sources in the world and has grown rapidly in recent years. However, the wind towers generate a noise that is perceived as an annoyance by the population living near the wind farms. It is therefore important to new tools that can help wind farm builders and the administrations. In this study, the measurements of the noise emitted by a wind farm and the data recorded by the supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system were used to construct a prediction model. First, acoustic measurements and control system data have been analyzed to characterize the phenomenon. An appropriate number of observations were then extracted, and these data were pre-processed. Subsequently two models of prediction of sound pressure levels were built at the receiver: a model based on multiple linear regression, and a model based on Random Forest algorithm. As predictors wind speeds measured near the wind turbines and the active power of the turbines were selected. Both data were measured by the SCADA system of wind turbines. The model based on the Random Forest algorithm showed high values of the Pearson correlation coeffcient (0.981), indicating a high number of correct predictions. This model can be extremely useful, both for the receiver and for the wind farm manager. Through the results of the model it will be possible to establish for which wind speed values the noise produced by wind turbines become dominant. Furthermore, the predictive model can give an overview of the noise produced by the receiver from the system in different operating conditions. Finally, the prediction model does not require the shutdown of the plant, a very expensive procedure due to the consequent loss of production.