Desarrollo de una metodología de monitoreo predictivo de procesos en un sistema de manufactura auto-organizado

Este proyecto tiene como objetivo desarrollar una metodología que permita introducir un modelo predictivo en un sistema de manufactura flexible auto-organizado, permitiendo que dicho sistema pueda tomar mejores decisiones. Teniendo en cuenta la competitividad actual de los mercados productivos, y los cada vez mayores requerimientos técnicos en los productos de manufactura, el desarrollo de mejoras de diversos tipos de sistemas de producción es necesario. Adicionalmente, tomar decisiones oportunas y acertadas en procesos en marcha permite generar mejores resultados en diversos indicadores como los tiempos de ejecución del proceso y una adecuada respuesta ante posibles perturbaciones. Esto permite mejorar la eficiencia del sistema. Por otro lado, el análisis de datos, y herramientas propias de la ingeniería industrial a través de la minería de procesos permitirá desarrollar una metodología que permita la implementación de un modelo predictivo de procesos en un sistema de manufactura flexible auto-organizado simulado basado en la celda de manufactura AIP - PRIMECA ubicada en la Universidad de Valenciennes (Francia). Herramientas de la minería de procesos tales como Apromore, Nírdizati, ProM serán usadas como base para el desarrollo de la metodología y su implementación en el sistema simulado. Se espera que con la implementación de la metodología el sistema sea más eficiente.The objective of this project is to develop a methodology that allows the introduction of a predictive model in a flexible self-organized manufacturing system, allowing the system to make better decisions. Taking into consideraron current competitivity in productive markets and, the higher requirements in manufactured producís, the development of improvements of various types of production systems is necessary. Additionally, taking oportune and accurate decisión in ongoing processes allows to generate better results in various indicators such as the execution time of process and an adequate response to possible perturbations. This allows to improve the efficiency of the system. On the other hand, data analysis and industrial engineering tools through process mining, will allow to develop a methodology that permits the implementation of a predictive model of processes in a simulated flexible self-organized manufacturing system based on the manufacturing cell AIP - PRIMECA located in Valenciennes Université (France). Process mining tools such as Apromore, Nirdizati, ProM will be used as a basis for the development of the methodology and its implementation in the simulated system. It is expected that with the implementation of the methodology, the system will be more efficient.Ingeniero (a) IndustrialPregrad

Äriprotsesside ajaliste näitajate selgitatav ennustav jälgimine

Kaasaegsed ettevõtte infosüsteemid võimaldavad ettevõtetel koguda detailset informatsiooni äriprotsesside täitmiste kohta. Eelnev koos masinõppe meetoditega võimaldab kasutada andmejuhitavaid ja ennustatavaid lähenemisi äriprotsesside jõudluse jälgimiseks. Kasutades ennustuslike äriprotsesside jälgimise tehnikaid on võimalik jõudluse probleeme ennustada ning soovimatu tegurite mõju ennetavalt leevendada. Tüüpilised küsimused, millega tegeleb ennustuslik protsesside jälgimine on “millal antud äriprotsess lõppeb?” või “mis on kõige tõenäolisem järgmine sündmus antud äriprotsessi jaoks?”. Suurim osa olemasolevatest lahendustest eelistavad täpsust selgitatavusele. Praktikas, selgitatavus on ennustatavate tehnikate tähtis tunnus. Ennustused, kas protsessi täitmine ebaõnnestub või selle täitmisel võivad tekkida raskused, pole piisavad. On oluline kasutajatele seletada, kuidas on selline ennustuse tulemus saavutatud ning mida saab teha soovimatu tulemuse ennetamiseks. Töö pakub välja kaks meetodit ennustatavate mudelite konstrueerimiseks, mis võimaldavad jälgida äriprotsesse ning keskenduvad selgitatavusel. Seda saavutatakse ennustuse lahtivõtmisega elementaarosadeks. Näiteks, kui ennustatakse, et äriprotsessi lõpuni on jäänud aega 20 tundi, siis saame anda seletust, et see aeg on moodustatud kõikide seni käsitlemata tegevuste lõpetamiseks vajalikust ajast. Töös võrreldakse omavahel eelmainitud meetodeid, käsitledes äriprotsesse erinevatest valdkondadest. Hindamine toob esile erinevusi selgitatava ja täpsusele põhinevale lähenemiste vahel. Töö teaduslik panus on ennustuslikuks protsesside jälgimiseks vabavaralise tööriista arendamine. Süsteemi nimeks on Nirdizati ning see süsteem võimaldab treenida ennustuslike masinõppe mudeleid, kasutades nii töös kirjeldatud meetodeid kui ka kolmanda osapoole meetodeid. Hiljem saab treenitud mudeleid kasutada hetkel käivate äriprotsesside tulemuste ennustamiseks, mis saab aidata kasutajaid reaalajas.Modern enterprise systems collect detailed data about the execution of the business processes they support. The widespread availability of such data in companies, coupled with advances in machine learning, have led to the emergence of data-driven and predictive approaches to monitor the performance of business processes. By using such predictive process monitoring approaches, potential performance issues can be anticipated and proactively mitigated. Various approaches have been proposed to address typical predictive process monitoring questions, such as what is the most likely continuation of an ongoing process instance, or when it will finish. However, most existing approaches prioritize accuracy over explainability. Yet in practice, explainability is a critical property of predictive methods. It is not enough to accurately predict that a running process instance will end up in an undesired outcome. It is also important for users to understand why this prediction is made and what can be done to prevent this undesired outcome. This thesis proposes two methods to build predictive models to monitor business processes in an explainable manner. This is achieved by decomposing a prediction into its elementary components. For example, to explain that the remaining execution time of a process execution is predicted to be 20 hours, we decompose this prediction into the predicted execution time of each activity that has not yet been executed. We evaluate the proposed methods against each other and various state-of-the-art baselines using a range of business processes from multiple domains. The evaluation reaffirms a fundamental trade-off between explainability and accuracy of predictions. The research contributions of the thesis have been consolidated into an open-source tool for predictive business process monitoring, namely Nirdizati. It can be used to train predictive models using the methods described in this thesis, as well as third-party methods. These models are then used to make predictions for ongoing process instances; thus, the tool can also support users at runtime

Process Mining Handbook

This is an open access book. This book comprises all the single courses given as part of the First Summer School on Process Mining, PMSS 2022, which was held in Aachen, Germany, during July 4-8, 2022. This volume contains 17 chapters organized into the following topical sections: Introduction; process discovery; conformance checking; data preprocessing; process enhancement and monitoring; assorted process mining topics; industrial perspective and applications; and closing

Predictive process monitoring in Apromore

This paper discusses the integration of Nirdizati, a tool for predictive process monitoring, into the web-based process analytics platform Apromore. Through this integration, Apromore's users can use event logs stored in the Apromore repository to train a range of predictive models, and later use the trained models to predict various performance indicators of running process cases from a live event stream. For example, one can predict the remaining time or the next events until case completion, the case outcome, or the violation of compliance rules or internal policies. The predictions can be presented graphically via a dashboard that offers multiple visualization options, including a range of summary statistics about ongoing and past process cases. They can also be exported into a text file for periodic reporting or to be visualized in third-parties business intelligence tools. Based on these predictions, operations managers may identify potential issues early on, and take remedial actions in a timely fashion, e.g. reallocating resources from one case onto another to avoid that the case runs overtime

Predictive Process Monitoring in Apromore

This paper discusses the integration of Nirdizati, a tool for predictive process monitoring, into the Web-based process analytics platform Apromore. Through this integration, Apromore’s users can use event logs stored in the Apromore repository to train a range of predictive models, and later use the trained models to predict various performance indicators of running process cases from a live event stream. For example, one can predict the remaining time or the next events until case completion, the case outcome, or the violation of compliance rules or internal policies. The predictions can be presented graphically via a dashboard that offers multiple visualization options, including a range of summary statistics about ongoing and past process cases. They can also be exported into CSV for periodic reporting or to be visualized in third-parties business intelligence tools. Based on these predictions, operations managers may identify potential issues early on, and take remedial actions in a timely fashion, e.g. reallocating resources from one case onto another to avoid that the case runs overtime