Prediction of hip fracture in post-menopausal women using artificial neural network approach

© 2017 IEEE. Hip fracture is one of the most serious health problems among post-menopausal women with osteoporosis. It is very difficult to predict hip fracture, because it is affected by multiple risk factors. Existing statistical models for predicting hip fracture risk yield area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) ∼0.7-0.85. In this study, we trained an artificial neural network (ANN) to predict hip fracture in one cohort, and validated its predictive performance in another cohort. The data for training and validation included age, bone mineral density (BMD), clinical factors, and lifestyle factors which had been obtained from a longitudinal study that involved 1167 women aged 60 years and above. The women had been followed up for up to 10 years, and during the period, the incidence of new hip fractures was ascertained. We applied feed-forward neural networks to learn from the data, and then used the learning for predicting hip fracture. Results of prediction showed that the accuracy of model I (which included only lumbar spine and femoral neck BMD) and model II (which included non-BMD factors) was 82% and 84%, respectively. When both BMD and non-BMD factors were combined (Model III), the accuracy increased to 87%. The AUC for model III was 0.94. These findings indicate that ANNs are able to predict hip fracture more accurately than any existing statistical models, and that ANNs can help stratify individuals for clinical management

Recognition of Morphometric Vertebral Fractures by Artificial Neural Networks: Analysis from GISMO Lombardia Database

BACKGROUND: It is known that bone mineral density (BMD) predicts the fracture's risk only partially and the severity and number of vertebral fractures are predictive of subsequent osteoporotic fractures (OF). Spinal deformity index (SDI) integrates the severity and number of morphometric vertebral fractures. Nowadays, there is interest in developing algorithms that use traditional statistics for predicting OF. Some studies suggest their poor sensitivity. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) could represent an alternative. So far, no study investigated ANNs ability in predicting OF and SDI. The aim of the present study is to compare ANNs and Logistic Regression (LR) in recognising, on the basis of osteoporotic risk-factors and other clinical information, patients with SDI≥1 and SDI≥5 from those with SDI = 0. METHODOLOGY: We compared ANNs prognostic performance with that of LR in identifying SDI≥1/SDI≥5 in 372 women with postmenopausal-osteoporosis (SDI≥1, n = 176; SDI = 0, n = 196; SDI≥5, n = 51), using 45 variables (44 clinical parameters plus BMD). ANNs were allowed to choose relevant input data automatically (TWIST-system-Semeion). Among 45 variables, 17 and 25 were selected by TWIST-system-Semeion, in SDI≥1 vs SDI = 0 (first) and SDI≥5 vs SDI = 0 (second) analysis. In the first analysis sensitivity of LR and ANNs was 35.8% and 72.5%, specificity 76.5% and 78.5% and accuracy 56.2% and 75.5%, respectively. In the second analysis, sensitivity of LR and ANNs was 37.3% and 74.8%, specificity 90.3% and 87.8%, and accuracy 63.8% and 81.3%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: ANNs showed a better performance in identifying both SDI≥1 and SDI≥5, with a higher sensitivity, suggesting its promising role in the development of algorithm for predicting OF

Development and evaluation of personalized risk assessments for osteoporotic patients

University of Technology Sydney. Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology.Osteoporosis is a skeletal disease characterized by reduced bone strength and deterioration in bone microstructure, leading to increased risk of fragility fracture. Bone strength is mainly determined by bone mineral density (BMD). The variation in BMD is partly determined by genetic factors. An individual's risk of fracture is determined by the individual's genetic structure and environmental exposures. While several genetic variants associated with BMD have been identified, the contribution of these variants to fracture risk prediction has not been well-documented. In this thesis, I sought to (i) construct an osteogenomic profile from BMD-associated genetic variants; (ii) assess the association between the profile and fracture risk and bone loss; (iii) determine the clinical utility of the osteogenomic profile in terms of fracture risk assessment; and (iv) improve the accuracy of hip fracture prediction in postmenopausal women by using artificial neural network approach. The work in this thesis was based on the Dubbo Epidemiology Osteoporosis Study, which is designed as a population-based longitudinal prospective cohort investigation that involved more than 4000 men and women aged 60+years. The individuals had been followed up to 27 years. The incidence of fracture was ascertained during the follow-up period. A unique osteogenomic profile was constructed for each individual from 68 BMD-associated genetic variants. The osteogenomic profile was significantly associated with BMD, fracture risk, and BMD changes. Incorporating the osteogenomic profile into existing prognostic model improved the prognostic performance over and above of traditional clinical risk factors models (age, gender, prior fracture, and history of fall). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for model with the osteogenomic profile was 71.1%, an increase of 0.5% compared with the model without the profile. More importantly, reclassification analysis showed that compared with the clinical risk factor (CRF) model, adding GRS resulted in 16% of individuals moving correctly from one risk category to another. In decision curve analysis, I found that for risk threshold greater than 15%, the osteogenomic profile could help reduce the number of unnecessary treatments. I also demonstrated that the predictive accuracy of fracture prediction using artificial neural network model was improved to 87% (AUC 0.94), which was significantly higher than that for the Cox's proportional hazards model (Accuracy 82%, AUC 0.85) or the Garvan model (Accuracy 83%, AUC 0.86). In conclusion, this thesis shows that an osteogenomic profile constructed from multiple BMD associated genetic variants is associated with fracture risk, and that the incorporation of osteogenomic profile could enhance the accuracy of fracture risk assessment for an individual men and women

Artificial neural network analysis of bone quality DXA parameters response to teriparatide in fractured osteoporotic patients

Teriparatide is a bone-forming therapy for osteoporosis that increases bone quantity and texture, with uncertain action on bone geometry. No data are available regarding its influence on bone strain. To investigate teriparatide action on parameters of bone quantity and quality and on Bone Strain Index (BSI), also derived from DXA lumbar scan, based on the mathematical model finite element method. Forty osteoporotic patients with fractures were studied before and after two years of daily subcutaneous 20 mcg of teriparatide with dual X-ray photon absorptiometry to assess bone mineral density (BMD), hip structural analysis (HSA), trabecular bone score (TBS), BSI. Spine deformity index (SDI) was calculated from spine X-ray. Shapiro-Wilks, Wilcoxon and Student's t test were used for classical statistical analysis. Auto Contractive Map was used for Artificial Neural Network Analysis (ANNs). In the entire population, the ameliorations after therapy regarded BSI (-13.9%), TBS (5.08%), BMD (8.36%). HSA parameters of femoral shaft showed a worsening. Dividing patients into responders (BMD increase >10%) and non-responders, the first presented TBS and BSI ameliorations (11.87% and -25.46%, respectively). Non-responders presented an amelioration of BSI only, but less than in the other subgroup (-6.57%). ANNs maps reflect the mentioned bone quality improvements. Teriparatide appears to ameliorate not only BMD and TBS, but also BSI, suggesting an increase of bone strength that may explain the known reduction in fracture risk, not simply justified by BMD increase. BSI appears to be a sensitive index of TPD effect. ANNs appears to be a valid tool to investigate complex clinical systems

Bone strain index as a predictor of further vertebral fracture in osteoporotic women: An artificial intelligence-based analysis

Background Osteoporosis is an asymptomatic disease of high prevalence and incidence, leading to bone fractures burdened by high mortality and disability, mainly when several subsequent fractures occur. A fragility fracture predictive model, Artificial Intelligence-based, to identify dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) variables able to characterise those patients who are prone to further fractures called Bone Strain Index, was evaluated in this study. Methods In a prospective, longitudinal, multicentric study 172 female outpatients with at least one vertebral fracture at the first observation were enrolled. They performed a spine X-ray to calculate spine deformity index (SDI) and a lumbar and femoral DXA scan to assess bone mineral density (BMD) and bone strain index (BSI) at baseline and after a follow-up period of 3 years in average. At the end of the follow-up, 93 women developed a further vertebral fracture. The further vertebral fracture was considered as one unit increase of SDI. We assessed the predictive capacity of supervised Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to distinguish women who developed a further fracture from those without it, and to detect those variables providing the maximal amount of relevant information to discriminate the two groups. ANNs choose appropriate input data automatically (TWIST-system, Training With Input Selection and Testing). Moreover, we built a semantic connectivity map usingthe Auto Contractive Map to provide further insights about the convoluted connections between the osteoporotic variables under consideration and the two scenarios (further fracture vs no further fracture). Results TWIST system selected 5 out of 13 available variables: age, menopause age, BMI, FTot BMC, FTot BSI. With training testing procedure, ANNs reached predictive accuracy of 79.36%, with a sensitivity of 75% and a specificity of 83.72%. The semantic connectivity map highlighted the role of BSI in predicting the risk of a further fracture. Conclusions Artificial Intelligence is a useful method to analyse a complex system like that regarding osteoporosis, able to identify patients prone to a further fragility fracture. BSI appears to be a useful DXA index in identifying those patients who are at risk of further vertebral fractures. Copyright

Detection of osteoporosis in lumbar spine [L1-L4] trabecular bone: a review article

The human bones are categorized based on elemental micro architecture and porosity. The porosity of the inner trabecular bone is high that is 40-95% and the nature of the bone is soft and spongy where as the cortical bone is harder and is less porous that is 5 to 15%. Osteoporosis is a disease that normally affects women usually after their menopause. It largely causes mild bone fractures and further stages lead to the demise of an individual. This analysis is on the basis of bone mineral density (BMD) standards obtained through a variety of scientific methods experimented from different skeletal regions. The detection of osteoporosis in lumbar spine has been widely recognized as a promising way to frequent fractures. Therefore, premature analysis of osteoporosis will estimate the risk of the bone fracture which prevents life threats. This paper focuses on the advanced technology in imaging systems and fracture probability analysis of osteoporosis detection. The various segmentation techniques are explored to examine osteoporosis in particular region of the image and further significant attributes are extracted using different methods to classify normal and abnormal (osteoporotic) bones. The limitations of the reviewed papers are more in feature dimensions, lesser accuracy and expensive imaging modalities like computed tomography (CT), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and DEXA. To overcome these limitations it is suggested to have less feature dimensions, more accuracy and cost-effective imaging modality like X-ray. This is required to avoid bone fractures and to improve BMD with precision which further helps in the diagnosis of osteoporosis

Osteoporosis Risk Prediction for Bone Mineral Density Assessment of Postmenopausal Women Using Machine Learning

PURPOSE: A number of clinical decision tools for osteoporosis risk assessment have been developed to select postmenopausal women for the measurement of bone mineral density. We developed and validated machine learning models with the aim of more accurately identifying the risk of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women compared to the ability of conventional clinical decision tools. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We collected medical records from Korean postmenopausal women based on the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. The training data set was used to construct models based on popular machine learning algorithms such as support vector machines (SVM), random forests, artificial neural networks (ANN), and logistic regression (LR) based on simple surveys. The machine learning models were compared to four conventional clinical decision tools: osteoporosis self-assessment tool (OST), osteoporosis risk assessment instrument (ORAI), simple calculated osteoporosis risk estimation (SCORE), and osteoporosis index of risk (OSIRIS). RESULTS: SVM had significantly better area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic than ANN, LR, OST, ORAI, SCORE, and OSIRIS for the training set. SVM predicted osteoporosis risk with an AUC of 0.827, accuracy of 76.7%, sensitivity of 77.8%, and specificity of 76.0% at total hip, femoral neck, or lumbar spine for the testing set. The significant factors selected by SVM were age, height, weight, body mass index, duration of menopause, duration of breast feeding, estrogen therapy, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, osteoarthritis, and diabetes mellitus. CONCLUSION: Considering various predictors associated with low bone density, the machine learning methods may be effective tools for identifying postmenopausal women at high risk for osteoporosis.ope

Deep learning with electronic health records for short-term fracture risk identification : crystal bone algorithm development and validation

Background: Fractures as a result of osteoporosis and low bone mass are common and give rise to significant clinical, personal, and economic burden. Even after a fracture occurs, high fracture risk remains widely underdiagnosed and undertreated. Common fracture risk assessment tools utilize a subset of clinical risk factors for prediction, and often require manual data entry. Furthermore, these tools predict risk over the long term and do not explicitly provide short-term risk estimates necessary to identify patients likely to experience a fracture in the next 1-2 years. Objective: The goal of this study was to develop and evaluate an algorithm for the identification of patients at risk of fracture in a subsequent 1- to 2-year period. In order to address the aforementioned limitations of current prediction tools, this approach focused on a short-term timeframe, automated data entry, and the use of longitudinal data to inform the predictions. Methods: Using retrospective electronic health record data from over 1,000,000 patients, we developed Crystal Bone, an algorithm that applies machine learning techniques from natural language processing to the temporal nature of patient histories to generate short-term fracture risk predictions. Similar to how language models predict the next word in a given sentence or the topic of a document, Crystal Bone predicts whether a patient’s future trajectory might contain a fracture event, or whether the signature of the patient’s journey is similar to that of a typical future fracture patient. A holdout set with 192,590 patients was used to validate accuracy. Experimental baseline models and human-level performance were used for comparison. Results: The model accurately predicted 1- to 2-year fracture risk for patients aged over 50 years (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve [AUROC] 0.81). These algorithms outperformed the experimental baselines (AUROC 0.67) and showed meaningful improvements when compared to retrospective approximation of human-level performance by correctly identifying 9649 of 13,765 (70%) at-risk patients who did not receive any preventative bone-health-related medical interventions from their physicians. Conclusions: These findings indicate that it is possible to use a patient’s unique medical history as it changes over time to predict the risk of short-term fracture. Validating and applying such a tool within the health care system could enable automated and widespread prediction of this risk and may help with identification of patients at very high risk of fracture