Prediction and Situational Option Generation in Soccer

Paul Ward, Michigan Technological University Naturalistic models of decision making, such as the Recognition- Primed Decision (RPD) model (e.g., Klein, Calderwood, & Clinton-Cirocco, 1986; Klein, 1997), suggest that as individuals become more experienced within a domain they automatically recognize situational patterns as familiar which, in turn, activates an associated situational response. Typically, this results in a workable course of action being generated first, and subsequent options generated only if the initial option proves ineffective

Scoring dynamics across professional team sports: tempo, balance and predictability

Despite growing interest in quantifying and modeling the scoring dynamics within professional sports games, relative little is known about what patterns or principles, if any, cut across different sports. Using a comprehensive data set of scoring events in nearly a dozen consecutive seasons of college and professional (American) football, professional hockey, and professional basketball, we identify several common patterns in scoring dynamics. Across these sports, scoring tempo---when scoring events occur---closely follows a common Poisson process, with a sport-specific rate. Similarly, scoring balance---how often a team wins an event---follows a common Bernoulli process, with a parameter that effectively varies with the size of the lead. Combining these processes within a generative model of gameplay, we find they both reproduce the observed dynamics in all four sports and accurately predict game outcomes. These results demonstrate common dynamical patterns underlying within-game scoring dynamics across professional team sports, and suggest specific mechanisms for driving them. We close with a brief discussion of the implications of our results for several popular hypotheses about sports dynamics.Comment: 18 pages, 8 figures, 4 tables, 2 appendice

The role of motion analysis in elite soccer

The optimal physical preparation of elite soccer (association football) players has become an indispensable part of the professional game especially due to the increased physical demands of match-play. The monitoring of players’ work-rate profiles during competition is now feasible through computer-aided motion analysis. Traditional methods of motion analysis were extremely labour intensive and were largely restricted to university- based research projects. Recent technological developments have meant that sophisticated systems, capable of quickly recording and processing the data of all players’ physical contributions throughout an entire match, are now being used in elite club environments. In recognition of the important role motion analysis now plays as a tool for measuring the physical performance of soccer players, this review critically appraises various motion analysis methods currently employed in elite soccer and explores research conducted using these methods. This review therefore aims to increase the awareness of both practitioners and researchers of the various motion analysis systems available, identify practical implications of the established body of knowledge, while highlighting areas that require further exploration

Exploiting Opponent Modeling For Learning In Multi-agent Adversarial Games

An issue with learning effective policies in multi-agent adversarial games is that the size of the search space can be prohibitively large when the actions of both teammates and opponents are considered simultaneously. Opponent modeling, predicting an opponent’s actions in advance of execution, is one approach for selecting actions in adversarial settings, but it is often performed in an ad hoc way. In this dissertation, we introduce several methods for using opponent modeling, in the form of predictions about the players’ physical movements, to learn team policies. To explore the problem of decision-making in multi-agent adversarial scenarios, we use our approach for both offline play generation and real-time team response in the Rush 2008 American football simulator. Simultaneously predicting the movement trajectories, future reward, and play strategies of multiple players in real-time is a daunting task but we illustrate how it is possible to divide and conquer this problem with an assortment of data-driven models. By leveraging spatio-temporal traces of player movements, we learn discriminative models of defensive play for opponent modeling. With the reward information from previous play matchups, we use a modified version of UCT (Upper Conference Bounds applied to Trees) to create new offensive plays and to learn play repairs to counter predicted opponent actions. iii In team games, players must coordinate effectively to accomplish tasks while foiling their opponents either in a preplanned or emergent manner. An effective team policy must generate the necessary coordination, yet considering all possibilities for creating coordinating subgroups is computationally infeasible. Automatically identifying and preserving the coordination between key subgroups of teammates can make search more productive by pruning policies that disrupt these relationships. We demonstrate that combining opponent modeling with automatic subgroup identification can be used to create team policies with a higher average yardage than either the baseline game or domain-specific heuristics

Complexity-Aware Assignment of Latent Values in Discriminative Models for Accurate Gesture Recognition

Many of the state-of-the-art algorithms for gesture recognition are based on Conditional Random Fields (CRFs). Successful approaches, such as the Latent-Dynamic CRFs, extend the CRF by incorporating latent variables, whose values are mapped to the values of the labels. In this paper we propose a novel methodology to set the latent values according to the gesture complexity. We use an heuristic that iterates through the samples associated with each label value, stimating their complexity. We then use it to assign the latent values to the label values. We evaluate our method on the task of recognizing human gestures from video streams. The experiments were performed in binary datasets, generated by grouping different labels. Our results demonstrate that our approach outperforms the arbitrary one in many cases, increasing the accuracy by up to 10%.Comment: Conference paper published at 2016 29th SIBGRAPI, Conference on Graphics, Patterns and Images (SIBGRAPI). 8 pages, 7 figure

Using Geographic Information to Explore Player-Specific Movement and its Effects on Play Success in the NFL

American Football is a billion-dollar industry in the United States. The analytical aspect of the sport is an ever-growing domain, with open-source competitions like the NFL Big Data Bowl accelerating this growth. With the amount of player movement during each play, tracking data can prove valuable in many areas of football analytics. While concussion detection, catch recognition, and completion percentage prediction are all existing use cases for this data, player-specific movement attributes, such as speed and agility, may be helpful in predicting play success. This research calculates player-specific speed and agility attributes from tracking data and supplements them with descriptive factors to produce a quality data set that, with machine learning models, can lead to accurate predictions of success on a play-by-play basis. A neural network was trained to predict play success with an F1 score of 40%. Therefore, the true effect of the inclusion of player movement attributes in predicting play success appears to have a minimal effect, but additional data and future research may be needed to confirm that