Precipitation prediction using recurrent neural networks and long short-term memory

Prediction of meteorological variables such as precipitation, temperature, wind speed, and solar radiation is beneficial for human life. The variable observations data is available from time to time for more than thirty years, scattered each observation station makes the opportunity to map patterns into predictions. However, the complexity of weather variables is very high, one of which is influenced by Decadal phenomena such as El-Nino Southern Oscillation and IOD. Weather predictions can be reviewed for the duration, prediction variables, and observation stations. This research proposed precipitation prediction using recurrent neural networks and long short-term memory. Experiments were carried out using the prediction duration factor, the period as a feature and the amount of data set used, and the optimization model. The results showed that the time-lapse as a shorter feature gives good accuracy. Also, the duration of weekly predictions provides more accuracy than monthly, which is 85.71% compared to 83.33% of the validation data

Exploring Randomly Wired Neural Networks for Climate Model Emulation

Exploring the climate impacts of various anthropogenic emissions scenarios is key to making informed decisions for climate change mitigation and adaptation. State-of-the-art Earth system models can provide detailed insight into these impacts, but have a large associated computational cost on a per-scenario basis. This large computational burden has driven recent interest in developing cheap machine learning models for the task of climate model emulation. In this manuscript, we explore the efficacy of randomly wired neural networks for this task. We describe how they can be constructed and compare them to their standard feedforward counterparts using the ClimateBench dataset. Specifically, we replace the serially connected dense layers in multilayer perceptrons, convolutional neural networks, and convolutional long short-term memory networks with randomly wired dense layers and assess the impact on model performance for models with 1 million and 10 million parameters. We find average performance improvements of 4.2% across model complexities and prediction tasks, with substantial performance improvements of up to 16.4% in some cases. Furthermore, we find no significant difference in prediction speed between networks with standard feedforward dense layers and those with randomly wired layers. These findings indicate that randomly wired neural networks may be suitable direct replacements for traditional dense layers in many standard models

Satellite-based feature extraction and multivariate time-series prediction of biotoxin contamination in shellfish

Shellfish production constitutes an important sector for the economy of many Portuguese coastal regions, yet the challenge of shellfish biotoxin contamination poses both public health concerns and significant economic risks. Thus, predicting shellfish contamination levels holds great potential for enhancing production management and safeguarding public health. In our study, we utilize a dataset with years of Sentinel-3 satellite imagery for marine surveillance, along with shellfish biotoxin contamination data from various production areas along Portugal's western coastline, collected by Portuguese official control. Our goal is to evaluate the integration of satellite data in forecasting models for predicting toxin concentrations in shellfish given forecasting horizons up to four weeks, which implies extracting a small set of useful features and assessing their impact on the predictive models. We framed this challenge as a time-series forecasting problem, leveraging historical contamination levels and satellite images for designated areas. While contamination measurements occurred weekly, satellite images were accessible multiple times per week. Unsupervised feature extraction was performed using autoencoders able to handle non-valid pixels caused by factors like cloud cover, land, or anomalies. Finally, several Artificial Neural Networks models were applied to compare univariate (contamination only) and multivariate (contamination and satellite data) time-series forecasting. Our findings show that incorporating these features enhances predictions, especially beyond one week in lagoon production areas (RIAV) and for the 1-week and 2-week horizons in the L5B area (oceanic). The methodology shows the feasibility of integrating information from a high-dimensional data source like remote sensing without compromising the model's predictive ability.Comment: 19 page

Deep learning approach to forecasting hourly solar irradiance

Abstract: In this dissertation, six artificial intelligence (AI) based methods for forecasting solar irradiance are presented. Solar energy is a clean renewable energy source (RES) which is free and abundant in nature. But despite the environmental impacts of fossil energy, global dependence on it is yet to drop appreciably in favor of solar energy for power generation purposes. Although the latest improvements on the technologies of photovoltaic (PV) cells have led to a significant drop in the cost of solar panels, solar power is still unattractive to some consumers due to its unpredictability. Consequently, accurate prediction of solar irradiance for stable solar power production continues to be a critical need both in the field of physical simulations or artificial intelligence. The performance of various methods in use for prediction of solar irradiance depends on the diversity of dataset, time step, experimental setup, performance evaluators, and forecasting horizon. In this study, historical meteorological data for the city of Johannesburg were used as training data for the solar irradiance forecast. Data collected for this work spanned from 1984 to 2019. Only ten years (2009 to 2018) of data was used. Tools used are Jupyter notebook and Computer with Nvidia GPU...M.Ing. (Electrical and Electronic Engineering Management

Image sensors for wave monitoring in shore protection: Characterization through a machine learning algorithm

Waves propagating on the water surface can be considered as propagating in a dispersive medium, where gravity and surface tension at the air–water interface act as restoring forces. The velocity at which energy is transported in water waves is defined by the group velocity. The paper reports the use of video‐camera observations to study the impact of water waves on an urban shore. The video‐monitoring system consists of two separate cameras equipped with progressive RGB CMOS sensors that allow 1080p HDTV video recording. The sensing system delivers video signals that are processed by a machine learning technique. The scope of the research is to identify features of water waves that cannot be normally observed. First, a conventional modelling was performed using data delivered by image sensors together with additional data such as temperature, and wind speed, measured with dedicated sensors. Stealth waves are detected, as are the inverting phenomena encompassed in waves. This latter phenomenon can be detected only through machine learning. This double approach allows us to prevent extreme events that can take place in offshore and onshore areas

LSTM-SDM: An integrated framework of LSTM implementation for sequential data modeling[Formula presented]

LSTM-SDM is a python-based integrated computational framework built on the top of Tensorflow/Keras and written in the Jupyter notebook. It provides several object-oriented functionalities for implementing single layer and multilayer LSTM models for sequential data modeling and time series forecasting. Multiple subroutines are blended to create a conducive user-friendly environment that facilitates data exploration and visualization, normalization and input preparation, hyperparameter tuning, performance evaluations, visualization of results, and statistical analysis. We utilized the LSTM-SDM framework in predicting the stock market index and observed impressive results. The framework can be generalized to solve several other real-world time series problems

Modeling Soil Water Content and Reference Evapotranspiration from Climate Data Using Deep Learning Method

In recent years, deep learning algorithms have been successfully applied in the development of decision support systems in various aspects of agriculture, such as yield estimation, crop diseases, weed detection, etc. Agriculture is the largest consumer of freshwater. Due to challenges such as lack of natural resources and climate change, an efficient decision support system for irrigation is crucial. Evapotranspiration and soil water content are the most critical factors in irrigation scheduling. In this paper, the ability of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Bidirectional LSTM (BLSTM) to model daily reference evapotranspiration and soil water content is investigated. The application of these techniques to predict these parameters was tested for three sites in Portugal. A single-layer BLSTM with 512 nodes was selected. Bayesian optimization was used to determine the hyperparameters, such as learning rate, decay, batch size, and dropout size.The model achieved the values of mean square error values within the range of 0.014 to 0.056 and R2 ranging from 0.96 to 0.98. A Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model was added to the LSTM to investigate potential performance improvement. Performance dropped in all datasets due to the complexity of the model. The performance of the models was also compared with CNN, traditional machine learning algorithms Support Vector Regression, and Random Forest. LSTM achieved the best performance. Finally, the impact of the loss function on the performance of the proposed models was investigated. The model with the mean square error as loss function performed better than the model with other loss functions.Project Centro-01-0145-FEDER000017-EMaDeS-Energy, Materials, and Sustainable Development, co-funded by the Portugal 2020 Program (PT 2020), within the Regional Operational Program of the Center (CENTRO 2020) and the EU through the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF). Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT—MCTES) also provided financial support via project UIDB/00151/2020 (C-MAST).info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Deep Learning Techniques in Extreme Weather Events: A Review

Extreme weather events pose significant challenges, thereby demanding techniques for accurate analysis and precise forecasting to mitigate its impact. In recent years, deep learning techniques have emerged as a promising approach for weather forecasting and understanding the dynamics of extreme weather events. This review aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the state-of-the-art deep learning in the field. We explore the utilization of deep learning architectures, across various aspects of weather prediction such as thunderstorm, lightning, precipitation, drought, heatwave, cold waves and tropical cyclones. We highlight the potential of deep learning, such as its ability to capture complex patterns and non-linear relationships. Additionally, we discuss the limitations of current approaches and highlight future directions for advancements in the field of meteorology. The insights gained from this systematic review are crucial for the scientific community to make informed decisions and mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events