Deep learning approach to forecasting hourly solar irradiance

Abstract

Abstract: In this dissertation, six artificial intelligence (AI) based methods for forecasting solar irradiance are presented. Solar energy is a clean renewable energy source (RES) which is free and abundant in nature. But despite the environmental impacts of fossil energy, global dependence on it is yet to drop appreciably in favor of solar energy for power generation purposes. Although the latest improvements on the technologies of photovoltaic (PV) cells have led to a significant drop in the cost of solar panels, solar power is still unattractive to some consumers due to its unpredictability. Consequently, accurate prediction of solar irradiance for stable solar power production continues to be a critical need both in the field of physical simulations or artificial intelligence. The performance of various methods in use for prediction of solar irradiance depends on the diversity of dataset, time step, experimental setup, performance evaluators, and forecasting horizon. In this study, historical meteorological data for the city of Johannesburg were used as training data for the solar irradiance forecast. Data collected for this work spanned from 1984 to 2019. Only ten years (2009 to 2018) of data was used. Tools used are Jupyter notebook and Computer with Nvidia GPU...M.Ing. (Electrical and Electronic Engineering Management