On the accuracy of international foreign trade statistics (1909-1935): Morgensten Revisited.

This work questions Morgenstern's pessimistic results on the reliability of aggregate international foreign trade statistics: His comparisons using pairs of countries can only test the misclassification of a country's trade flow. Aggregation, by contrast, eliminates this problem. Therefore, testing the total value of imports and exports with the sum of the same trade flows as registered by their partner countries' statistics, leads to more encouraging conclusions on the aggregate data. Our results strengthen considerably one's trust in the reliability of pre-World War 11 foreign trade statistics. Diversity in individual countries' accuracy indexes can be partially explained by differences in freight factors and also by minor differences in compilation.

Fuse: A technique to anticipate failures due to degradation in ALUs

This paper proposes the fuse, a technique to anticipate failures due to degradation in any ALU (arithmetic logic unit), and particularly in an adder. The fuse consists of a replica of the weakest transistor in the adder and the circuitry required to measure its degradation. By mimicking the behavior of the replicated transistor the fuse anticipates the failure short before the first failure in the adder appears, and hence, data corruption and program crashes can be avoided. Our results show that the fuse anticipates the failure in more than 99.9% of the cases after 96.6% of the lifetime, even for pessimistic random within-die variations.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

"The More the Merrier: The Impact of Enlargement on EU Budgetary Negotiations"

Why were some of the European Union (EU) budgets vetoed in the earlier years of the EU but we do not observe any vetoes lately? Recent research on the EU budget proposes insufficient explanations of the reduction in conflict on budgetary negotiations. The literature on enlargement is pessimistic about the effects of enlargement, especially when dealing with EU funds where member states are expected to fight more. The existing bargaining models offer some insights on the cooperative dynamics in the EU, but provide no empirical testing. I argue that enlargement stabilizes the budgetary process and makes cooperation more durable among the budgetary authorities – the European Commission, the European Parliament and the Council of Ministers. Using formal theory and regression analysis, I show that every country that joins the EU increases the bargaining space on the budget and thus makes agreement more likely

Reliability Assessment of Legacy Safety-Critical Systems Upgraded with Fault-Tolerant Off-the-Shelf Software

This paper presents a new way of applying Bayesian assessment to systems, which consist of many components. Full Bayesian inference with such systems is problematic, because it is computationally hard and, far more seriously, one needs to specify a multivariate prior distribution with many counterintuitive dependencies between the probabilities of component failures. The approach taken here is one of decomposition. The system is decomposed into partial views of the systems or part thereof with different degrees of detail and then a mechanism of propagating the knowledge obtained with the more refined views back to the coarser views is applied (recalibration of coarse models). The paper describes the recalibration technique and then evaluates the accuracy of recalibrated models numerically on contrived examples using two techniques: u-plot and prequential likelihood, developed by others for software reliability growth models. The results indicate that the recalibrated predictions are often more accurate than the predictions obtained with the less detailed models, although this is not guaranteed. The techniques used to assess the accuracy of the predictions are accurate enough for one to be able to choose the model giving the most accurate prediction

Stereotyping starlings are more 'pessimistic'.

Negative affect in humans and animals is known to cause individuals to interpret ambiguous stimuli pessimistically, a phenomenon termed 'cognitive bias'. Here, we used captive European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris) to test the hypothesis that a reduction in environmental conditions, from enriched to non-enriched cages, would engender negative affect, and hence 'pessimistic' biases. We also explored whether individual differences in stereotypic behaviour (repetitive somersaulting) predicted 'pessimism'. Eight birds were trained on a novel conditional discrimination task with differential rewards, in which background shade (light or dark) determined which of two covered dishes contained a food reward. The reward was small when the background was light, but large when the background was dark. We then presented background shades intermediate between those trained to assess the birds' bias to choose the dish associated with the smaller food reward (a 'pessimistic' judgement) when the discriminative stimulus was ambiguous. Contrary to predictions, changes in the level of cage enrichment had no effect on 'pessimism'. However, changes in the latency to choose and probability of expressing a choice suggested that birds learnt rapidly that trials with ambiguous stimuli were unreinforced. Individual differences in performance of stereotypies did predict 'pessimism'. Specifically, birds that somersaulted were more likely to choose the dish associated with the smaller food reward in the presence of the most ambiguous discriminative stimulus. We propose that somersaulting is part of a wider suite of behavioural traits indicative of a stress response to captive conditions that is symptomatic of a negative affective state

The Anti-Induction for Scientific Realism

In contemporary philosophy of science, the no-miracles argument and the pessimistic induction are regarded as the strongest arguments for and against scientific realism, respectively. In this paper, I construct a new argument for scientific realism which I call the anti-induction for scientific realism. It holds that, since past theories were false, present theories are true. I provide an example from the history of science to show that anti-inductions sometimes work in science. The anti-induction for scientific realism has several advantages over the no-miracles argument as a positive argument for scientific realism

Pessimistic induction and two fallacies

The Pessimistic Induction from falsity of past theories forms a perennial argument against scientific realism. This paper considers and rebuts two recent arguments—due to Lewis (2001) and Lange (2002)—to the conclusion that the Pessimistic Induction (in its best known form) is fallacious. It re-establishes the dignity of the Pessimistic Induction by calling to mind the basic objective of the argument, and hence restores the propriety of the realist program of responding to PMI by undermining one or another of its premises