Crisis Communication Patterns in Social Media during Hurricane Sandy

Hurricane Sandy was one of the deadliest and costliest of hurricanes over the past few decades. Many states experienced significant power outage, however many people used social media to communicate while having limited or no access to traditional information sources. In this study, we explored the evolution of various communication patterns using machine learning techniques and determined user concerns that emerged over the course of Hurricane Sandy. The original data included ~52M tweets coming from ~13M users between October 14, 2012 and November 12, 2012. We run topic model on ~763K tweets from top 4,029 most frequent users who tweeted about Sandy at least 100 times. We identified 250 well-defined communication patterns based on perplexity. Conversations of most frequent and relevant users indicate the evolution of numerous storm-phase (warning, response, and recovery) specific topics. People were also concerned about storm location and time, media coverage, and activities of political leaders and celebrities. We also present each relevant keyword that contributed to one particular pattern of user concerns. Such keywords would be particularly meaningful in targeted information spreading and effective crisis communication in similar major disasters. Each of these words can also be helpful for efficient hash-tagging to reach target audience as needed via social media. The pattern recognition approach of this study can be used in identifying real time user needs in future crises

Performance Measures to Assess Resiliency and Efficiency of Transit Systems

Transit agencies are interested in assessing the short-, mid-, and long-term performance of infrastructure with the objective of enhancing resiliency and efficiency. This report addresses three distinct aspects of New Jersey’s Transit System: 1) resiliency of bridge infrastructure, 2) resiliency of public transit systems, and 3) efficiency of transit systems with an emphasis on paratransit service. This project proposed a conceptual framework to assess the performance and resiliency for bridge structures in a transit network before and after disasters utilizing structural health monitoring (SHM), finite element (FE) modeling and remote sensing using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR). The public transit systems in NY/NJ were analyzed based on their vulnerability, resiliency, and efficiency in recovery following a major natural disaster

Statistical and machine learning models for critical infrastructure resilience

This thesis presents a data-driven approach to improving predictions of critical infrastructure behaviors. In our first approach, we explore novel data sources and time series modeling techniques to model disaster impacts on power systems through the case study of Hurricane Sandy as it impacted the state of New York. We find a correlation between Twitter data and load forecast errors, suggesting that Twitter data may provide value towards predicting impacts of disasters on infrastructure systems. Based on these findings, we then develop time series forecasting methods to predict the NYISO power system behaviors at the zonal level, utilizing Twitter and load forecast data as model inputs. In our second approach, we develop a novel, graph-based formulation of the British rail network to model the nonlinear cascading delays on the rail network. Using this formulation, we then develop machine learning approaches to predict delays in the rail network. Through experiments on real-world rail data, we find that the selected architecture provides more accurate predictions than other models due to its ability to capture both spatial and temporal dimensions of the data

Classifying Crises-Information Relevancy with Semantics

Social media platforms have become key portals for sharing and consuming information during crisis situations. However, humanitarian organisations and affected communities often struggle to sieve through the large volumes of data that are typically shared on such platforms during crises to determine which posts are truly relevant to the crisis, and which are not. Previous work on automatically classifying crisis information was mostly focused on using statistical features. However, such approaches tend to be inappropriate when processing data on a type of crisis that the model was not trained on, such as processing information about a train crash, whereas the classifier was trained on floods, earthquakes, and typhoons. In such cases, the model will need to be retrained, which is costly and time-consuming. In this paper, we explore the impact of semantics in classifying Twitter posts across same, and different, types of crises. We experiment with 26 crisis events, using a hybrid system that combines statistical features with various semantic features extracted from external knowledge bases. We show that adding semantic features has no noticeable benefit over statistical features when classifying same-type crises, whereas it enhances the classifier performance by up to 7.2% when classifying information about a new type of crisis

Cross-Lingual Classification of Crisis Data

Many citizens nowadays flock to social media during crises to share or acquire the latest information about the event. Due to the sheer volume of data typically circulated during such events, it is necessary to be able to efficiently filter out irrelevant posts, thus focusing attention on the posts that are truly relevant to the crisis. Current methods for classifying the relevance of posts to a crisis or set of crises typically struggle to deal with posts in different languages, and it is not viable during rapidly evolving crisis situations to train new models for each language. In this paper we test statistical and semantic classification approaches on cross-lingual datasets from 30 crisis events, consisting of posts written mainly in English, Spanish, and Italian. We experiment with scenarios where the model is trained on one language and tested on another, and where the data is translated to a single language. We show that the addition of semantic features extracted from external knowledge bases improve accuracy over a purely statistical model