Data-driven Prediction of Internal Turbulences in Production Using Synthetic Data

Production planning and control are characterized by unplanned events or so-called turbulences. Turbulences can be external, originating outside the company (e.g., delayed delivery by a supplier), or internal, originating within the company (e.g., failures of production and intralogistics resources). Turbulences can have far-reaching consequences for companies and their customers, such as delivery delays due to process delays. For target-optimized handling of turbulences in production, forecasting methods incorporating process data in combination with the use of existing flexibility corridors of flexible production systems offer great potential. Probabilistic, data-driven forecasting methods allow determining the corresponding probabilities of potential turbulences. However, a parallel application of different forecasting methods is required to identify an appropriate one for the specific application. This requires a large database, which often is unavailable and, therefore, must be created first. A simulation-based approach to generate synthetic data is used and validated to create the necessary database of input parameters for the prediction of internal turbulences. To this end, a minimal system for conducting simulation experiments on turbulence scenarios was developed and implemented. A multi-method simulation of the minimal system synthetically generates the required process data, using agent-based modeling for the autonomously controlled system elements and event-based modeling for the stochastic turbulence events. Based on this generated synthetic data and the variation of the input parameters in the forecast, a comparative study of data-driven probabilistic forecasting methods was conducted using a data analytics tool. Forecasting methods of different types (including regression, Bayesian models, nonlinear models, decision trees, ensemble, deep learning) were analyzed in terms of prediction quality, standard deviation, and computation time. This resulted in the identification of appropriate forecasting methods, and required input parameters for the considered turbulences

Manufacturing System Energy Modeling and Optimization

World energy consumption has continued increasing in recent years. As a major consumer, industrial activities uses about one third of the energy over the last few decades. In the US, automotive manufacturing plants spends millions of dollars on energy. Meanwhile, due to the high energy price and the high correlation between the energy and environment, manufacturers are facing competing pressure from profit, long term brand image, and environmental policies. Thus, it is critical to understand the energy usage and optimize the operation to achieve the best overall objective. This research will establish systematic energy models, forecast energy demands, and optimize the supply systems in manufacturing plants. A combined temporal and organizational framework for manufacturing is studied to drive energy model establishment. Guided by the framework, an automotive manufacturing plant in the post-process phase is used to implement the systematic modeling approach. By comparing with current studies, the systematic approach is shown to be advantageous in terms of amount of information included, feasibility to be applied, ability to identify the potential conservations, and accuracy. This systematic approach also identifies key influential variables for time series analysis. Comparing with traditional time series models, the models informed by manufacturing features are proved to be more accurate in forecasting and more robust to sudden changes. The 16 step-ahead forecast MSE (mean square error) is improved from 16% to 1.54%. In addition, the time series analysis also detects the increasing trend, weekly, and annual seasonality in the energy consumption. Energy demand forecasting is essential to production management and supply stability. Manufacturing plant on-site energy conversion and transmission systems can schedule the optimal strategy according the demand forecasting and optimization criteria. This research shows that the criteria of energy, monetary cost, and environmental emission are three main optimization criteria that are inconsistent in optimal operations. In the studied case, comparing to cost-oriented optimization, energy optimal operation costs 35% more to run the on-site supply system. While the monetary cost optimal operation uses 17% more energy than the energy-oriented operation. Therefore, the research shows that the optimal operation strategy does not only depends on the high/low level energy price and demand, but also relies on decision makers’ preferences. It provides not a point solution to energy use in manufacturing, but instead valuable information for decision making. This research complements the current knowledge gaps in systematic modeling of manufacturing energy use, consumption forecasting, and supply optimization. It increases the understanding of energy usage in the manufacturing system and improves the awareness of the importance of energy conservation and environmental protection

Aerospace medicine and biology: A continuing bibliography with indexes (supplement 341)

This bibliography lists 133 reports, articles and other documents introduced into the NASA Scientific and Technical Information System during September 1990. Subject coverage includes: aerospace medicine and psychology, life support systems and controlled environments, safety equipment, exobiology and extraterrestrial life, and flight crew behavior and performance

Aerospace medicine and biology: A continuing bibliography with indexes (supplement 324)

This bibliography lists 200 reports, articles and other documents introduced into the NASA Scientific and Technical Information System during May, 1989. Subject coverage includes: aerospace medicine and psychology, life support systems and controlled environments, safety equipment, exobiology and extraterrestrial life, and flight crew behavior and performance

Flexible Automation and Intelligent Manufacturing: The Human-Data-Technology Nexus

This is an open access book. It gathers the first volume of the proceedings of the 31st edition of the International Conference on Flexible Automation and Intelligent Manufacturing, FAIM 2022, held on June 19 – 23, 2022, in Detroit, Michigan, USA. Covering four thematic areas including Manufacturing Processes, Machine Tools, Manufacturing Systems, and Enabling Technologies, it reports on advanced manufacturing processes, and innovative materials for 3D printing, applications of machine learning, artificial intelligence and mixed reality in various production sectors, as well as important issues in human-robot collaboration, including methods for improving safety. Contributions also cover strategies to improve quality control, supply chain management and training in the manufacturing industry, and methods supporting circular supply chain and sustainable manufacturing. All in all, this book provides academicians, engineers and professionals with extensive information on both scientific and industrial advances in the converging fields of manufacturing, production, and automation

A Model for Robot Arm Pattern Identification using K-Means Clustering and Multi-Layer Perceptron

Predictive maintenance of industrial machines is one of the challenging applications in Industry 4.0. This paper presents a comprehensive methodology to identify robot arm (SCARA) movement patterns to detect the mechanical aging of the robot, which is determined by the abnormal movement of the robot arm. The dataset used is two robot arm movements that go from point A to B and then back to point A. Accelerometer data is used to measure the signal of SCARA actions, mainly focus on the non-linear movement. The identification of the movement pattern of the robot arm is made by combining k-means and multilayer perceptron. The proposed approach first extracts valuable features as characteristics of the two datasets from the time domain statistical value parameters. K-means clustering technique is initiated to label the training dataset. In this phase, the elbow curve is used to determine the number of clusters in the dataset, which is 2 clusters. Moreover, the assumption is used to determine which cluster is labeled as a normal and abnormal movement.  Hence, a multilayer perceptron approach is proposed to predict the testing dataset. The proposed multilayer perceptron model yields an accuracy of 94.14%, whereas its cross-validation yields an accuracy of 96.12%