Modelling the lactation curve of dairy cows using the differentials of growth functions

Descriptions of entire lactations were investigated using six mathematical equations. comprising the differentials of four growth functions (logistic. Gompertz, Schumacher and Morgan) and two other equations (Wood and Dijkstra). The data contained monthly milk yield records from 70 first, 70 second and 75 third parity Iranian Holstein cows. Indicators of fit were model behavior, statistical evaluation and biologically meaningful parameter estimates and lactation features. Analysis of variance with equation, parity and their interaction as factors and with cows as replicates was performed to compare goodness of fit of the equations. The interaction of equation and parity was not significant for any statistics, which showed that there vas no tendency For one equation to fit a given parity better than other equations. Although model behaviour analysis showed better performance of growth functions than the Wood and Dijkstra equations in filling the individual lactation curves, statistical evaluation revealed that there was no significant difference between file goodness of fit of the different equations. Evaluation of lactation features showed that the Dijkstra equation was able to estimate the initial milk yield and peak yield more accurately than the other equations. Overall evaluation of the different equations demonstrated the potential of the differentials of simple empirical growth functions used in file Current study as equations for fitting monthly milk records of Holstein dairy cattle

Evaluating covariance matrix forecasts in a value-at-risk framework

Covariance matrix forecasts of financial asset returns are an important component of current practice in financial risk management. A wide variety of models, ranging from matrices of simple summary measures to covariance matrices implied from option prices, are available for generating such forecasts. In this paper, we evaluate the relative accuracy of different covariance matrix forecasts using standard statistical loss functions and a value-at-risk (VaR) framework. This framework consists of hypothesis tests examining various properties of VaR models based on these forecasts as well as an evaluation using a regulatory loss function. ; Using a foreign exchange portfolio, we find that implied covariance matrix forecasts appear to perform best under standard statistical loss functions. However, within the economic context of a VaR framework, the performance of VaR models depends more on their distributional assumptions than on their covariance matrix specification. Of the forecasts examined, simple specifications, such as exponentially-weighted moving averages of past observations perform best with regard to the magnitude of VaR exceptions and regulatory capital requirements. These results provide empirical support for the commonly-used VaR models based on simple covariance matrix forecasts and distributional assumptions.Financial markets ; Risk ; Econometric models ; Forecasting

A comparison of activation functions in multilayer neural network for predicting the production and consumption of electricity power

Predicting electricity power is an important task, which helps power utilities in improving their systems’ performance in terms of effectiveness, productivity, management and control. Several researches had introduced this task using three main models: engineering, statistical and artificial intelligence. Based on the experiments, which used artificial intelligence models, multilayer neural networks model has proven its success in predicting many evaluation datasets. However, the performance of this model depends mainly on the type of activation function. Therefore, this paper introduces an experimental study for investigating the performance of the multilayer neural networks model with respect to different activation functions and different depths of hidden layers. The experiments in this paper cover the comparison among eleven activation functions using four benchmark electricity datasets. The activation functions under examination are sigmoid, hyperbolic tangent, SoftSign, SoftPlus, ReLU, Leak ReLU, Gaussian, ELU, SELU, Swish and Adjust-Swish. Experimental results show that ReLU and Leak ReLU activation functions outperform their counterparts in all datasets

Two-tier Spatial Modeling of Base Stations in Cellular Networks

Poisson Point Process (PPP) has been widely adopted as an efficient model for the spatial distribution of base stations (BSs) in cellular networks. However, real BSs deployment are rarely completely random, due to environmental impact on actual site planning. Particularly, for multi-tier heterogeneous cellular networks, operators have to place different BSs according to local coverage and capacity requirement, and the diversity of BSs' functions may result in different spatial patterns on each networking tier. In this paper, we consider a two-tier scenario that consists of macrocell and microcell BSs in cellular networks. By analyzing these two tiers separately and applying both classical statistics and network performance as evaluation metrics, we obtain accurate spatial model of BSs deployment for each tier. Basically, we verify the inaccuracy of using PPP in BS locations modeling for either macrocells or microcells. Specifically, we find that the first tier with macrocell BSs is dispersed and can be precisely modelled by Strauss point process, while Matern cluster process captures the second tier's aggregation nature very well. These statistical models coincide with the inherent properties of macrocell and microcell BSs respectively, thus providing a new perspective in understanding the relationship between spatial structure and operational functions of BSs

Consistent ranking of multivariate volatility models

A large number of parameterizations have been proposed to model conditional variance dynamics in a multivariate framework. This paper examines the ranking of multivariate volatility models in terms of their ability to forecast out-of-sample conditional variance matrices. We investigate how sensitive the ranking is to alternative statistical loss functions which evaluate the distance between the true covariance matrix and its forecast. The evaluation of multivariate volatility models requires the use of a proxy for the unobservable volatility matrix which may shift the ranking of the models. Therefore, to preserve this ranking conditions with respect to the choice of the loss function have to be discussed. To do this, we extend the conditions defined in Hansen and Lunde (2006) to the multivariate framework. By invoking norm equivalence we are able to extend the class of loss functions that preserve the true ranking. In a simulation study, we sample data from a continuous time multivariate diffusion process to illustrate the sensitivity of the ranking to different choices of the loss functions and to the quality of the proxy. An application to three foreign exchange rates, where we compare the forecasting performance of 16 multivariate GARCH specifications, is provided.volatility, multivariate GARCH, matrix norm and loss function, norm equivalence

The Fluctuating Two-Ray Fading Model: Statistical Characterization and Performance Analysis

(c) 20xx IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other users, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted components of this work in other works.We introduce the fluctuating two-ray (FTR) fading model, a new statistical channel model that consists of two fluctuating specular components with random phases plus a diffuse component. The FTR model arises as the natural generalization of the two-wave with diffuse power (TWDP) fading model; this generalization allows its two specular components to exhibit a random amplitude fluctuation. Unlike the TWDP model, all the chief probability functions of the FTR fading model (PDF, CDF, and MGF) are expressed in closed-form, having a functional form similar to other state-of-the-art fading models. We also provide approximate closed-form expressions for the PDF and CDF in terms of a finite number of elementary functions, which allow for a simple evaluation of these statistics to an arbitrary level of precision. We show that the FTR fading model provides a much better fit than Rician fading for recent small-scale fading measurements in 28 GHz outdoor mm-wave channels. Finally, the performance of wireless communication systems over FTR fading is evaluated in terms of the bit error rate and the outage capacity, and the interplay between the FTR fading model parameters and the system performance is discussed. Monte Carlo simulations have been carried out in order to validate the obtained theoretical expressions.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional. Andalucía Tech