Approximate performability and dependability analysis using generalized stochastic Petri Nets

Since current day fault-tolerant and distributed computer and communication systems tend to be large and complex, their corresponding performability models will suffer from the same characteristics. Therefore, calculating performability measures from these models is a difficult and time-consuming task.\ud \ud To alleviate the largeness and complexity problem to some extent we use generalized stochastic Petri nets to describe to models and to automatically generate the underlying Markov reward models. Still however, many models cannot be solved with the current numerical techniques, although they are conveniently and often compactly described.\ud \ud In this paper we discuss two heuristic state space truncation techniques that allow us to obtain very good approximations for the steady-state performability while only assessing a few percent of the states of the untruncated model. For a class of reversible models we derive explicit lower and upper bounds on the exact steady-state performability. For a much wider class of models a truncation theorem exists that allows one to obtain bounds for the error made in the truncation. We discuss this theorem in the context of approximate performability models and comment on its applicability. For all the proposed truncation techniques we present examples showing their usefulness

Performability modeling with continuous accomplishment sets

A general modeling framework that permits the definition, formulation, and evaluation of performability is described. It is shown that performability relates directly to system effectiveness, and is a proper generalization of both performance and reliability. A hierarchical modeling scheme is used to formulate the capability function used to evaluate performability. The case in which performance variables take values in a continuous accomplishment set is treated explicitly

Comparative analysis of techniques for evaluating the effectiveness of aircraft computing systems

Performability analysis is a technique developed for evaluating the effectiveness of fault-tolerant computing systems in multiphase missions. Performability was evaluated for its accuracy, practical usefulness, and relative cost. The evaluation was performed by applying performability and the fault tree method to a set of sample problems ranging from simple to moderately complex. The problems involved as many as five outcomes, two to five mission phases, permanent faults, and some functional dependencies. Transient faults and software errors were not considered. A different analyst was responsible for each technique. Significantly more time and effort were required to learn performability analysis than the fault tree method. Performability is inherently as accurate as fault tree analysis. For the sample problems, fault trees were more practical and less time consuming to apply, while performability required less ingenuity and was more checkable. Performability offers some advantages for evaluating very complex problems

Performability evaluation of the SIFT computer

Performability modeling and evaluation techniques are applied to the SIFT computer as it might operate in the computational evironment of an air transport mission. User-visible performance of the total system (SIFT plus its environment) is modeled as a random variable taking values in a set of levels of accomplishment. These levels are defined in terms of four attributes of total system behavior: safety, no change in mission profile, no operational penalties, and no economic process whose states describe the internal structure of SIFT as well as relavant conditions of the environment. Base model state trajectories are related to accomplishment levels via a capability function which is formulated in terms of a 3-level model hierarchy. Performability evaluation algorithms are then applied to determine the performability of the total system for various choices of computer and environment parameter values. Numerical results of those evaluations are presented and, in conclusion, some implications of this effort are discussed

Phased models for evaluating the performability of computing systems

A phase-by-phase modelling technique is introduced to evaluate a fault tolerant system's ability to execute different sets of computational tasks during different phases of the control process. Intraphase processes are allowed to differ from phase to phase. The probabilities of interphase state transitions are specified by interphase transition matrices. Based on constraints imposed on the intraphase and interphase transition probabilities, various iterative solution methods are developed for calculating system performability

Measurement-based reliability prediction methodology

In the past, analytical and measurement based models were developed to characterize computer system behavior. An open issue is how these models can be used, if at all, for system design improvement. The issue is addressed here. A combined statistical/analytical approach to use measurements from one environment to model the system failure behavior in a new environment is proposed. A comparison of the predicted results with the actual data from the new environment shows a close correspondence

Performability modelling of homogenous and heterogeneous multiserver systems with breakdowns and repairs

This thesis presents analytical modelling of homogeneous multi-server systems with reconfiguration and rebooting delays, heterogeneous multi-server systems with one main and several identical servers, and farm paradigm multi-server systems. This thesis also includes a number of other research works such as, fast performability evaluation models of open networks of nodes with repairs and finite queuing capacities, multi-server systems with deferred repairs, and two stage tandem networks with failures, repairs and multiple servers at the second stage. Applications of these for the popular Beowulf cluster systems and memory servers are also accomplished. Existing techniques used in performance evaluation of multi-server systems are investigated and analysed in detail. Pure performance modelling techniques, pure availability models, and performability models are also considered. First, the existing approaches for pure performance modelling are critically analysed with the discussions on merits and demerits. Then relevant terminology is defined and explained. Since the pure performance models tend to be too optimistic and pure availability models are too conservative, performability models are used for the evaluation of multi-server systems. Fault-tolerant multi-server systems can continue service in case of certain failures. If failure does not occur at a critical point (such as breakdown of the head processor of a farm paradigm system) the system continues serving in a degraded mode of operation. In such systems, reconfiguration and/or rebooting delays are expected while a processor is being mapped out from the system. These delay stages are also taken into account in addition to failures and repairs, in the exact performability models that are developed. Two dimensional Markov state space representations of the systems are used for performability modelling. Following the critical analysis of the existing solution techniques, the Spectral Expansion method is chosen for the solution of the models developed. In this work, open queuing networks are also considered. To evaluate their performability, existing modelling approaches are expanded and validated by simulations, for performability analysis of multistage open networks with finite queuing capacities. The performances of two extended modelling approaches are compared in terms of accuracy for open networks with various queuing capacities. Deferred repair strategies are becoming popular because of the cost reductions they can provide. Effects of using deferred repairs are analysed and performability models are provided for homogeneous multi-server systems and highly available farm paradigm multi-server systems. Since one of the random variables is used to represent the number of jobs in one of the queues, analytical models for performance evaluation of two stage tandem networks suffer because of numerical cumbersomeness. Existing approaches for modelling these systems are actually pure performance models since breakdowns and repairs cannot be considered. One way of modelling these systems can be to divide one of the random variables to present both the operative and non-operative states of the server in one dimension. However, this will give rise to state explosion problem severely limiting the maximum queue capacity that can be handled. In order to overcome this problem a new approach is presented for modelling two stage tandem networks in three dimensions. An approximate solution is presented to solve such a system. This approach manifests itself as a novel contribution for alleviating the state space explosion problem for large and/or complex systems. When two state tandem networks with feedback are modelled using this approach, the operative states can be handled independently and this makes it possible to consider multiple operative states at the second stage. The analytical models presented can be used with various parameters and they are extendible to consider systems with similar architectures. The developed three dimensional approach is capable to handle two stage tandem networks with various characteristics for performability measures. All the approaches presented give accurate results. Numerical solutions are presented for all models developed. In case the solution presented is not exact, simulations are performed to validate the accuracy of the results obtained

Techniques for the Fast Simulation of Models of Highly dependable Systems

With the ever-increasing complexity and requirements of highly dependable systems, their evaluation during design and operation is becoming more crucial. Realistic models of such systems are often not amenable to analysis using conventional analytic or numerical methods. Therefore, analysts and designers turn to simulation to evaluate these models. However, accurate estimation of dependability measures of these models requires that the simulation frequently observes system failures, which are rare events in highly dependable systems. This renders ordinary Simulation impractical for evaluating such systems. To overcome this problem, simulation techniques based on importance sampling have been developed, and are very effective in certain settings. When importance sampling works well, simulation run lengths can be reduced by several orders of magnitude when estimating transient as well as steady-state dependability measures. This paper reviews some of the importance-sampling techniques that have been developed in recent years to estimate dependability measures efficiently in Markov and nonMarkov models of highly dependable system