Simulation-based Methods for Stochastic Control and Global Optimization

Ideas of stochastic control have found applications in a variety of areas. A subclass of the problems with parameterized policies (including some stochastic impulse control problems) has received significant attention recently because of emerging applications in the areas of engineering, management, and mathematical finance. However, explicit solutions for this type of stochastic control problems only exist for some special cases, and effective numerical methods are relatively rare. Deriving efficient stochastic derivative estimators for payoff functions with discontinuities arising in many problems of practical interest is very challenging. Global optimization problems are extremely hard to solve due to the typical multimodal properties of objective functions. With the increasing availability of computing power and memory, there is a rapid development in the merging of simulation and optimization techniques. Developing new and efficient simulation-based optimization algorithms for solving stochastic control and global optimization problems is the primary goal of this thesis. First we develop a new simulation-based optimization algorithm to solve a stochastic control problem with a parameterized policy that arises in the setting of dynamic pricing and inventory control. We consider a joint dynamic pricing and inventory control problem with continuous stochastic demand and model the problem as a stochastic control problem. An explicit solution is given when a special demand model is considered. For general demand models with a parameterized policy, we develop a new simulation-based method to solve this stochastic control problem. We prove the convergence of the algorithm and show the effectiveness of the algorithm by numerical experiments. In the second part of this thesis, we focus on the problem of estimating the derivatives for a class of discontinuous payoff functions, for which existing methods are either not valid or not efficient. We derive a new unbiased stochastic derivative estimator for performance functions containing indicator functions. One important feature of this new estimator is that it can be computed from a single sample path or simulation, whereas existing estimators in the literature require additional simulations. Finally we propose a new framework for solving global optimization problems by establishing a connection with evolutionary games, and show that a particular equilibrium set of the evolutionary game is asymptotically stable. Based on this connection, we propose a Model-based Evolutionary Optimization (MEO) algorithm, which uses probabilistic models to generate new candidate solutions and uses dynamics from evolutionary game theory to govern the evolution of the probabilistic models. MEO gives new insight into the mechanism of model updating in model-based global optimization algorithms from the perspective of evolutionary game theory. Furthermore, it opens the door to developing new algorithms by using various learning algorithms and analysis techniques from evolutionary game theory

The future of sensitivity analysis: an essential discipline for systems modeling and policy support

Sensitivity analysis (SA) is en route to becoming an integral part of mathematical modeling. The tremendous potential benefits of SA are, however, yet to be fully realized, both for advancing mechanistic and data-driven modeling of human and natural systems, and in support of decision making. In this perspective paper, a multidisciplinary group of researchers and practitioners revisit the current status of SA, and outline research challenges in regard to both theoretical frameworks and their applications to solve real-world problems. Six areas are discussed that warrant further attention, including (1) structuring and standardizing SA as a discipline, (2) realizing the untapped potential of SA for systems modeling, (3) addressing the computational burden of SA, (4) progressing SA in the context of machine learning, (5) clarifying the relationship and role of SA to uncertainty quantification, and (6) evolving the use of SA in support of decision making. An outlook for the future of SA is provided that underlines how SA must underpin a wide variety of activities to better serve science and society

The Future of Sensitivity Analysis: An essential discipline for systems modeling and policy support

Sensitivity analysis (SA) is en route to becoming an integral part of mathematical modeling. The tremendous potential benefits of SA are, however, yet to be fully realized, both for advancing mechanistic and data-driven modeling of human and natural systems, and in support of decision making. In this perspective paper, a multidisciplinary group of researchers and practitioners revisit the current status of SA, and outline research challenges in regard to both theoretical frameworks and their applications to solve real-world problems. Six areas are discussed that warrant further attention, including (1) structuring and standardizing SA as a discipline, (2) realizing the untapped potential of SA for systems modeling, (3) addressing the computational burden of SA, (4) progressing SA in the context of machine learning, (5) clarifying the relationship and role of SA to uncertainty quantification, and (6) evolving the use of SA in support of decision making. An outlook for the future of SA is provided that underlines how SA must underpin a wide variety of activities to better serve science and society.John Jakeman’s work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research, Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC) program. Joseph Guillaume received funding from an Australian Research Council Discovery Early Career Award (project no. DE190100317). Arnald Puy worked on this paper on a Marie Sklodowska-Curie Global Fellowship, grant number 792178. Takuya Iwanaga is supported through an Australian Government Research Training Program (AGRTP) Scholarship and the ANU Hilda-John Endowment Fun

A Unified Framework for Gradient-based Hyperparameter Optimization and Meta-learning

Machine learning algorithms and systems are progressively becoming part of our societies, leading to a growing need of building a vast multitude of accurate, reliable and interpretable models which should possibly exploit similarities among tasks. Automating segments of machine learning itself seems to be a natural step to undertake to deliver increasingly capable systems able to perform well in both the big-data and the few-shot learning regimes. Hyperparameter optimization (HPO) and meta-learning (MTL) constitute two building blocks of this growing effort. We explore these two topics under a unifying perspective, presenting a mathematical framework linked to bilevel programming that captures existing similarities and translates into procedures of practical interest rooted in algorithmic differentiation. We discuss the derivation, applicability and computational complexity of these methods and establish several approximation properties for a class of objective functions of the underlying bilevel programs. In HPO, these algorithms generalize and extend previous work on gradient-based methods. In MTL, the resulting framework subsumes classic and emerging strategies and provides a starting basis from which to build and analyze novel techniques. A series of examples and numerical simulations offer insight and highlight some limitations of these approaches. Experiments on larger-scale problems show the potential gains of the proposed methods in real-world applications. Finally, we develop two extensions of the basic algorithms apt to optimize a class of discrete hyperparameters (graph edges) in an application to relational learning and to tune online learning rate schedules for training neural network models, an old but crucially important issue in machine learning

Discrete Event Systems: Models and Applications; Proceedings of an IIASA Conference, Sopron, Hungary, August 3-7, 1987

Work in discrete event systems has just begun. There is a great deal of activity now, and much enthusiasm. There is considerable diversity reflecting differences in the intellectual formation of workers in the field and in the applications that guide their effort. This diversity is manifested in a proliferation of DEM formalisms. Some of the formalisms are essentially different. Some of the "new" formalisms are reinventions of existing formalisms presented in new terms. These "duplications" reveal both the new domains of intended application as well as the difficulty in keeping up with work that is published in journals on computer science, communications, signal processing, automatic control, and mathematical systems theory - to name the main disciplines with active research programs in discrete event systems. The first eight papers deal with models at the logical level, the next four are at the temporal level and the last six are at the stochastic level. Of these eighteen papers, three focus on manufacturing, four on communication networks, one on digital signal processing, the remaining ten papers address methodological issues ranging from simulation to computational complexity of some synthesis problems. The authors have made good efforts to make their contributions self-contained and to provide a representative bibliography. The volume should therefore be both accessible and useful to those who are just getting interested in discrete event systems