Methods of Technical Prognostics Applicable to Embedded Systems

Hlavní cílem dizertace je poskytnutí uceleného pohledu na problematiku technické prognostiky, která nachází uplatnění v tzv. prediktivní údržbě založené na trvalém monitorování zařízení a odhadu úrovně degradace systému či jeho zbývající životnosti a to zejména v oblasti komplexních zařízení a strojů. V současnosti je technická diagnostika poměrně dobře zmapovaná a reálně nasazená na rozdíl od technické prognostiky, která je stále rozvíjejícím se oborem, který ovšem postrádá větší množství reálných aplikaci a navíc ne všechny metody jsou dostatečně přesné a aplikovatelné pro embedded systémy. Dizertační práce přináší přehled základních metod použitelných pro účely predikce zbývající užitné životnosti, jsou zde popsány metriky pomocí, kterých je možné jednotlivé přístupy porovnávat ať už z pohledu přesnosti, ale také i z pohledu výpočetní náročnosti. Jedno z dizertačních jader tvoří doporučení a postup pro výběr vhodné prognostické metody s ohledem na prognostická kritéria. Dalším dizertačním jádrem je představení tzv. částicového filtrovaní (particle filtering) vhodné pro model-based prognostiku s ověřením jejich implementace a porovnáním. Hlavní dizertační jádro reprezentuje případovou studii pro velmi aktuální téma prognostiky Li-Ion baterii s ohledem na trvalé monitorování. Případová studie demonstruje proces prognostiky založené na modelu a srovnává možné přístupy jednak pro odhad doby před vybitím baterie, ale také sleduje možné vlivy na degradaci baterie. Součástí práce je základní ověření modelu Li-Ion baterie a návrh prognostického procesu.The main aim of the thesis is to provide a comprehensive overview of technical prognosis, which is applied in the condition based maintenance, based on continuous device monitoring and remaining useful life estimation, especially in the field of complex equipment and machinery. Nowadays technical prognosis is still evolving discipline with limited number of real applications and is not so well developed as technical diagnostics, which is fairly well mapped and deployed in real systems. Thesis provides an overview of basic methods applicable for prediction of remaining useful life, metrics, which can help to compare the different approaches both in terms of accuracy and in terms of computational/deployment cost. One of the research cores consists of recommendations and guide for selecting the appropriate forecasting method with regard to the prognostic criteria. Second thesis research core provides description and applicability of particle filtering framework suitable for model-based forecasting. Verification of their implementation and comparison is provided. The main research topic of the thesis provides a case study for a very actual Li-Ion battery health monitoring and prognostics with respect to continuous monitoring. The case study demonstrates the prognostic process based on the model and compares the possible approaches for estimating both the runtime and capacity fade. Proposed methodology is verified on real measured data.

Probabilistic Monte-Carlo method for modelling and prediction of electronics component life

Power electronics are widely used in electric vehicles, railway locomotive and new generation aircrafts. Reliability of these components directly affect the reliability and performance of these vehicular platforms. In recent years, several research work about reliability, failure mode and aging analysis have been extensively carried out. There is a need for an efficient algorithm able to predict the life of power electronics component. In this paper, a probabilistic Monte-Carlo framework is developed and applied to predict remaining useful life of a component. Probability distributions are used to model the component’s degradation process. The modelling parameters are learned using Maximum Likelihood Estimation. The prognostic is carried out by the mean of simulation in this paper. Monte-Carlo simulation is used to propagate multiple possible degradation paths based on the current health state of the component. The remaining useful life and confident bounds are calculated by estimating mean, median and percentile descriptive statistics of the simulated degradation paths. Results from different probabilistic models are compared and their prognostic performances are evaluated

Prognostic Algorithms for Condition Monitoring and Remaining Useful Life Estimation

To enable the benets of a truly condition-based maintenance philosophy to be realised, robust, accurate and reliable algorithms, which provide maintenance personnel with the necessary information to make informed maintenance decisions, will be key. This thesis focuses on the development of such algorithms, with a focus on semiconductor manufacturing and wind turbines. An introduction to condition-based maintenance is presented which reviews dierent types of maintenance philosophies and describes the potential benets which a condition- based maintenance philosophy will deliver to operators of critical plant and machinery. The issues and challenges involved in developing condition-based maintenance solutions are discussed and a review of previous approaches and techniques in fault diagnostics and prognostics is presented. The development of a condition monitoring system for dry vacuum pumps used in semi- conductor manufacturing is presented. A notable feature is that upstream process mea- surements from the wafer processing chamber were incorporated in the development of a solution. In general, semiconductor manufacturers do not make such information avail- able and this study identies the benets of information sharing in the development of condition monitoring solutions, within the semiconductor manufacturing domain. The developed solution provides maintenance personnel with the ability to identify, quantify, track and predict the remaining useful life of pumps suering from degradation caused by pumping large volumes of corrosive uorine gas. A comprehensive condition monitoring solution for thermal abatement systems is also presented. As part of this work, a multiple model particle ltering algorithm for prog- nostics is developed and tested. The capabilities of the proposed prognostic solution for addressing the uncertainty challenges in predicting the remaining useful life of abatement systems, subject to uncertain future operating loads and conditions, is demonstrated. Finally, a condition monitoring algorithm for the main bearing on large utility scale wind turbines is developed. The developed solution exploits data collected by onboard supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems in wind turbines. As a result, the developed solution can be integrated into existing monitoring systems, at no additional cost. The potential for the application of multiple model particle ltering algorithm to wind turbine prognostics is also demonstrated

Multidimensional prognostics for rotating machinery: A review

open access articleDetermining prognosis for rotating machinery could potentially reduce maintenance costs and improve safety and avail- ability. Complex rotating machines are usually equipped with multiple sensors, which enable the development of multidi- mensional prognostic models. By considering the possible synergy among different sensor signals, multivariate models may provide more accurate prognosis than those using single-source information. Consequently, numerous research papers focusing on the theoretical considerations and practical implementations of multivariate prognostic models have been published in the last decade. However, only a limited number of review papers have been written on the subject. This article focuses on multidimensional prognostic models that have been applied to predict the failures of rotating machinery with multiple sensors. The theory and basic functioning of these techniques, their relative merits and draw- backs and how these models have been used to predict the remnant life of a machine are discussed in detail. Furthermore, this article summarizes the rotating machines to which these models have been applied and discusses future research challenges. The authors also provide seven evaluation criteria that can be used to compare the reviewed techniques. By reviewing the models reported in the literature, this article provides a guide for researchers considering prognosis options for multi-sensor rotating equipment

Fault Diagnosis and Failure Prognostics of Lithium-ion Battery based on Least Squares Support Vector Machine and Memory Particle Filter Framework

123456A novel data driven approach is developed for fault diagnosis and remaining useful life (RUL) prognostics for lithium-ion batteries using Least Square Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM) and Memory-Particle Filter (M-PF). Unlike traditional data-driven models for capacity fault diagnosis and failure prognosis, which require multidimensional physical characteristics, the proposed algorithm uses only two variables: Energy Efficiency (EE), and Work Temperature. The aim of this novel framework is to improve the accuracy of incipient and abrupt faults diagnosis and failure prognosis. First, the LSSVM is used to generate residual signal based on capacity fade trends of the Li-ion batteries. Second, adaptive threshold model is developed based on several factors including input, output model error, disturbance, and drift parameter. The adaptive threshold is used to tackle the shortcoming of a fixed threshold. Third, the M-PF is proposed as the new method for failure prognostic to determine Remaining Useful Life (RUL). The M-PF is based on the assumption of the availability of real-time observation and historical data, where the historical failure data can be used instead of the physical failure model within the particle filter. The feasibility of the framework is validated using Li-ion battery prognostic data obtained from the National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA) Ames Prognostic Center of Excellence (PCoE). The experimental results show the following: (1) fewer data dimensions for the input data are required compared to traditional empirical models; (2) the proposed diagnostic approach provides an effective way of diagnosing Li-ion battery fault; (3) the proposed prognostic approach can predict the RUL of Li-ion batteries with small error, and has high prediction accuracy; and, (4) the proposed prognostic approach shows that historical failure data can be used instead of a physical failure model in the particle filter

Accommodating repair actions into gas turbine prognostics

Elements of gas turbine degradation, such as compressor fouling, are recoverable through maintenance actions like compressor washing. These actions increase the usable engine life and optimise the performance of the gas turbine. However, these maintenance actions are performed by a separate organization to those undertaking fleet management operations, leading to significant uncertainty in the maintenance state of the asset. The uncertainty surrounding maintenance actions impacts prognostic efficacy. In this paper, we adopt Bayesian on-line change point detection to detect the compressor washing events. Then, the event detection information is used as an input to a prognostic algorithm, advising an update to the estimation of remaining useful life. To illustrate the capability of the approach, we demonstrated our on-line Bayesian change detection algorithms on synthetic and real aircraft engine service data, in order to identify the compressor washing events for a gas turbine and thus provide demonstrably improved prognosis

A new hybrid prognostic methodology

Methodologies for prognostics usually centre on physics-based or data-driven approaches. Both have advantages and disadvantages, but accurate prediction relies on extensive data being available. For industrial applications this is very rarely the case, and hence the chosen method’s performance can deteriorate quite markedly from optimal. For this reason a hybrid methodology, merging physics-based and data-driven approaches, has been developed and is reported here. Most, if not all, hybrid methods apply physics-based and data-driven approaches in different steps of the prognostics process (i.e. state estimation and state forecasting). The presented technique combines both methods in forecasting, and integrates the short-term prediction of a physics-based model with the longer term projection of a similarity-based data-driven model, to obtain remaining useful life estimation. The proposed hybrid prognostic methodology has been tested on two engineering datasets, one for crack growth and the other for filter clogging. The performance of the presented methodology has been evaluated by comparing remaining useful life estimations obtained from both hybrid and individual prognostic models. The results show that the presented methodology improves accuracy, robustness and applicability, especially in the case of minimal data being available

An investigation into the prognosis of electromagnetic relays.

Electrical contacts provide a well-proven solution to switching various loads in a wide variety of applications, such as power distribution, control applications, automotive and telecommunications. However, electrical contacts are known for limited reliability due to degradation effects upon the switching contacts due to arcing and fretting. Essentially, the life of the device may be determined by the limited life of the contacts. Failure to trip, spurious tripping and contact welding can, in critical applications such as control systems for avionics and nuclear power application, cause significant costs due to downtime, as well as safety implications. Prognostics provides a way to assess the remaining useful life (RUL) of a component based on its current state of health and its anticipated future usage and operating conditions. In this thesis, the effects of contact wear on a set of electromagnetic relays used in an avionic power controller is examined, and how contact resistance combined with a prognostic approach, can be used to ascertain the RUL of the device. Two methodologies are presented, firstly a Physics based Model (PbM) of the degradation using the predicted material loss due to arc damage. Secondly a computationally efficient technique using posterior degradation data to form a state space model in real time via a Sliding Window Recursive Least Squares (SWRLS) algorithm. Health monitoring using the presented techniques can provide knowledge of impending failure in high reliability applications where the risks associated with loss-of-functionality are too high to endure. The future states of the systems has been estimated based on a Particle and Kalman-filter projection of the models via a Bayesian framework. Performance of the prognostication health management algorithm during the contacts life has been quantified using performance evaluation metrics. Model predictions have been correlated with experimental data. Prognostic metrics including Prognostic Horizon (PH), alpha-Lamda (α-λ), and Relative Accuracy have been used to assess the performance of the damage proxies and a comparison of the two models made