Split-domain calibration of an ecosystem model using satellite ocean colour data

The application of satellite ocean colour data to the calibration of plankton ecosystem models for large geographic domains, over which their ideal parameters cannot be assumed to be invariant, is investigated. A method is presented for seeking the number and geographic scope of parameter sets which allows the best fit to validation data to be achieved. These are independent data not used in the parameter estimation process. The goodness-of-fit of the optimally calibrated model to the validation data is an objective measure of merit for the model, together with its external forcing data. Importantly, this is a statistic which can be used for comparative evaluation of different models. The method makes use of observations from multiple locations, referred to as stations, distributed across the geographic domain. It relies on a technique for finding groups of stations which can be aggregated for parameter estimation purposes with minimal increase in the resulting misfit between model and observations.The results of testing this split-domain calibration method for a simple zero dimensional model, using observations from 30 stations in the North Atlantic, are presented. The stations are divided into separate calibration and validation sets. One year of ocean colour data from each station were used in conjunction with a climatological estimate of the station’s annual nitrate maximum. The results demonstrate the practical utility of the method and imply that an optimal fit of the model to the validation data would be given by two parameter sets. The corresponding division of the North Atlantic domain into two provinces allows a misfit-based cost to be achieved which is 25% lower than that for the single parameter set obtained using all of the calibration stations. In general, parameters are poorly constrained, contributing to a high degree of uncertainty in model output for unobserved variables. This suggests that limited progress towards a definitive model calibration can be made without including other types of observations

Identifcation of the hydraulic model from operational measurements for supervisory pressure control

The operational pressure control is a cost-e®ective way to leakage reduction and many pressure control methods and algorithms have been developed. Whilst the pres- sure control algorithm is model-based, the hydraulic model of the considered distribu- tion network is not always available. Therefore, this paper will focus on the development of an aggregated hydraulic model of the network considered, in particular, identi¯ca- tion of a leakage enhanced model using the operational measurements or the available historical data. This will enable a pressure optimisation algorithm to calculate the optimal pressure schedules for the implementation of a pressure control scheme. The identi¯cation problem is formulated as a parameter estimation problem in this paper and a least-square based method is derived for estimating the parameters in the model. A case study provided by a UK water company is performed to illustrate the use of the method and the identi¯cation results from real operational data are presented

The Effect of Single-Axis Sorting on the Estimation of a Linear Regression

Microaggregation is one of the most important statistical disclosure control techniques for continuous data. The basic principle of microaggregation is to group the observations in a data set and to replace them by their corresponding group means. In this paper, we consider single-axis sorting, a frequently applied microaggregation technique where the formation of groups depends on the magnitude of a sorting variable related to the variables in the data set. The paper deals with the impact of this technique on a linear model in continuous variables. We show that parameter estimates are asymptotically biased if the sorting variable depends on the response variable of the linear model. Using this result, we develop a consistent estimator that removes the aggregation bias. Moreover, we derive the asymptotic covariance matrix of the corrected least squares estimator

Spatial aggregation of local likelihood estimates with applications to classification

This paper presents a new method for spatially adaptive local (constant) likelihood estimation which applies to a broad class of nonparametric models, including the Gaussian, Poisson and binary response models. The main idea of the method is, given a sequence of local likelihood estimates (``weak'' estimates), to construct a new aggregated estimate whose pointwise risk is of order of the smallest risk among all ``weak'' estimates. We also propose a new approach toward selecting the parameters of the procedure by providing the prescribed behavior of the resulting estimate in the simple parametric situation. We establish a number of important theoretical results concerning the optimality of the aggregated estimate. In particular, our ``oracle'' result claims that its risk is, up to some logarithmic multiplier, equal to the smallest risk for the given family of estimates. The performance of the procedure is illustrated by application to the classification problem. A numerical study demonstrates its reasonable performance in simulated and real-life examples.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009053607000000271 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org