Bio-inspired optimization in integrated river basin management

Water resources worldwide are facing severe challenges in terms of quality and quantity. It is essential to conserve, manage, and optimize water resources and their quality through integrated water resources management (IWRM). IWRM is an interdisciplinary field that works on multiple levels to maximize the socio-economic and ecological benefits of water resources. Since this is directly influenced by the river’s ecological health, the point of interest should start at the basin-level. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the application of bio-inspired optimization techniques in integrated river basin management (IRBM). This study demonstrates the application of versatile, flexible and yet simple metaheuristic bio-inspired algorithms in IRBM. In a novel approach, bio-inspired optimization algorithms Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) are used to spatially distribute mitigation measures within a basin to reduce long-term annual mean total nitrogen (TN) concentration at the outlet of the basin. The Upper Fuhse river basin developed in the hydrological model, Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE), is used as a case study. ACO and PSO are coupled with the HYPE model to distribute a set of measures and compute the resulting TN reduction. The algorithms spatially distribute nine crop and subbasin-level mitigation measures under four categories. Both algorithms can successfully yield a discrete combination of measures to reduce long-term annual mean TN concentration. They achieved an 18.65% reduction, and their performance was on par with each other. This study has established the applicability of these bio-inspired optimization algorithms in successfully distributing the TN mitigation measures within the river basin. Stakeholder involvement is a crucial aspect of IRBM. It ensures that researchers and policymakers are aware of the ground reality through large amounts of information collected from the stakeholder. Including stakeholders in policy planning and decision-making legitimizes the decisions and eases their implementation. Therefore, a socio-hydrological framework is developed and tested in the Larqui river basin, Chile, based on a field survey to explore the conditions under which the farmers would implement or extend the width of vegetative filter strips (VFS) to prevent soil erosion. The framework consists of a behavioral, social model (extended Theory of Planned Behavior, TPB) and an agent-based model (developed in NetLogo) coupled with the results from the vegetative filter model (Vegetative Filter Strip Modeling System, VFSMOD-W). The results showed that the ABM corroborates with the survey results and the farmers are willing to extend the width of VFS as long as their utility stays positive. This framework can be used to develop tailor-made policies for river basins based on the conditions of the river basins and the stakeholders' requirements to motivate them to adopt sustainable practices. It is vital to assess whether the proposed management plans achieve the expected results for the river basin and if the stakeholders will accept and implement them. The assessment via simulation tools ensures effective implementation and realization of the target stipulated by the decision-makers. In this regard, this dissertation introduces the application of bio-inspired optimization techniques in the field of IRBM. The successful discrete combinatorial optimization in terms of the spatial distribution of mitigation measures by ACO and PSO and the novel socio-hydrological framework using ABM prove the forte and diverse applicability of bio-inspired optimization algorithms

Characterization and uncertainty analysis of siliciclastic aquifer-fault system

The complex siliciclastic aquifer system underneath the Baton Rouge area, Louisiana, USA, is fluvial in origin. The east-west trending Baton Rouge fault and Denham Springs-Scotlandville fault cut across East Baton Rouge Parish and play an important role in groundwater flow and aquifer salinization. To better understand the salinization underneath Baton Rouge, it is imperative to study the hydrofacies architecture and the groundwater flow field of the Baton Rogue aquifer-fault system. This is done through developing multiple detailed hydrofacies architecture models and multiple groundwater flow models of the aquifer-fault system, representing various uncertain model propositions. The hydrofacies architecture models focus on the Miocene-Pliocene depth interval that consists of the “1,200-foot” sand, “1,500-foot” sand, “1,700-foot” sand and the “2,000-foot” sand, as these aquifer units are classified and named by their approximate depth below ground level. The groundwater flow models focus only on the “2,000-foot” sand. The study reveals the complexity of the Baton Rouge aquifer-fault system where the sand deposition is non-uniform, different sand units are interconnected, the sand unit displacement on the faults is significant, and the spatial distribution of flow pathways through the faults is sporadic. The identified locations of flow pathways through the Baton Rouge fault provide useful information on possible windows for saltwater intrusion from the south. From the results we learn that the “1,200-foot” sand, “1,500-foot” sand and the “1,700-foot” sand should not be modeled separately since they are very well connected near the Baton Rouge fault, while the “2,000-foot” sand between the two faults is a separate unit. Results suggest that at the “2,000-foot” sand the Denham Springs-Scotlandville fault has much lower permeability in comparison to the Baton Rouge fault, and that the Baton Rouge fault plays an important role in the aquifer salinization

Probabilistic and artificial intelligence modelling of drought and agricultural crop yield in Pakistan

Pakistan is a drought-prone, agricultural nation with hydro-meteorological imbalances that increase the scarcity of water resources, thus, constraining water availability and leading major risks to the agricultural productivity sector and food security. Rainfall and drought are imperative matters of consideration, both for hydrological and agricultural applications. The aim of this doctoral thesis is to advance new knowledge in designing hybridized probabilistic and artificial intelligence forecasts models for rainfall, drought and crop yield within the agricultural hubs in Pakistan. The choice of these study regions is a strategic decision, to focus on precision agriculture given the importance of rainfall and drought events on agricultural crops in socioeconomic activities of Pakistan. The outcomes of this PhD contribute to efficient modelling of seasonal rainfall, drought and crop yield to assist farmers and other stakeholders to promote more strategic decisions for better management of climate risk for agriculturalreliant nations

Evolutionary algorithms and other metaheuristics in water resources: Current status, research challenges and future directions

Copyright © 2014 Elsevier. NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Environmental Modelling and Software. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Environmental Modelling and Software Vol. 62 (2014), DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.09.013The development and application of evolutionary algorithms (EAs) and other metaheuristics for the optimisation of water resources systems has been an active research field for over two decades. Research to date has emphasized algorithmic improvements and individual applications in specific areas (e.g. model calibration, water distribution systems, groundwater management, river-basin planning and management, etc.). However, there has been limited synthesis between shared problem traits, common EA challenges, and needed advances across major applications. This paper clarifies the current status and future research directions for better solving key water resources problems using EAs. Advances in understanding fitness landscape properties and their effects on algorithm performance are critical. Future EA-based applications to real-world problems require a fundamental shift of focus towards improving problem formulations, understanding general theoretic frameworks for problem decompositions, major advances in EA computational efficiency, and most importantly aiding real decision-making in complex, uncertain application contexts

Development of Deep Learning Hybrid Models for Hydrological Predictions

The Abstract is currently unavailable, due to the thesis being under Embargo

Development of sustainable groundwater management methodologies to control saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers with application to a tropical Pacific island country

Saltwater intrusion due to the over-exploitation of groundwater in coastal aquifers is a critical challenge facing groundwater-dependent coastal communities throughout the world. Sustainable management of coastal aquifers for maintaining abstracted groundwater quality within permissible salinity limits is regarded as an important groundwater management problem necessitating urgent reliable and optimal management methodologies. This study focuses on the development and evaluation of groundwater salinity prediction tools, coastal aquifer multi-objective management strategies, and adaptive management strategies using new prediction models, coupled simulation-optimization (S/O) models, and monitoring network design, respectively. Predicting the extent of saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers in response to existing and changing pumping patterns is a prerequisite of any groundwater management framework. This study investigates the feasibility of using support vector machine regression (SVMR), an innovative artificial intelligence-based machine learning algorithm, to predict salinity at monitoring wells in an illustrative aquifer under variable groundwater pumping conditions. For evaluation purposes, the prediction results of SVMR are compared with well-established genetic programming (GP) based surrogate models. The prediction capabilities of the two learning machines are evaluated using several measures to ensure their practicality and generalisation ability. Also, a sensitivity analysis methodology is proposed for assessing the impact of pumping rates on salt concentrations at monitoring locations. The performance evaluations suggest that the predictive capability of SVMR is superior to that of GP models. The sensitivity analysis identifies a subset of the most influential pumping rates, which is used to construct new SVMR surrogate models with improved predictive capabilities. The improved predictive capability and generalisation ability of SVMR models, together with the ability to improve the accuracy of prediction by refining the dataset used for training, make the use of SVMR models more attractive. Coupled S/O models are efficient tools that are used for designing multi-objective coastal aquifer management strategies. This study applies a regional-scale coupled S/O methodology with a Pareto front clustering technique to prescribe optimal groundwater withdrawal patterns from the Bonriki aquifer in the Pacific Island of Kiribati. A numerical simulation model is developed, calibrated and validated using field data from the Bonriki aquifer. For computational feasibility, SVMR surrogate models are trained and tested utilizing input-output datasets generated using the flow and transport numerical simulation model. The developed surrogate models were externally coupled with a multi-objective genetic algorithm optimization (MOGA) model, as a substitute for the numerical model. The study area consisted of freshwater pumping wells for extracting groundwater. Pumping from barrier wells installed along the coastlines is also considered as a management option to hydraulically control saltwater intrusion. The objective of the multi-objective management model was to maximise pumping from production wells and minimize pumping from barrier wells (which provide a hydraulic barrier) to ensure that the water quality at different monitoring locations remains within pre-specified limits. The executed multi-objective coupled S/O model generated 700 Pareto-optimal solutions. Analysing a large set of Pareto-optimal solution is a challenging task for the decision-makers. Hence, the k-means clustering technique was utilized to reduce the large Pareto-optimal solution set and help solve the large-scale saltwater intrusion problem in the Bonriki aquifer. The S/O-based management models have delivered optimal saltwater intrusion management strategies. However, at times, uncertainties in the numerical simulation model due to uncertain aquifer parameters are not incorporated into the management models. The present study explicitly incorporates aquifer parameter uncertainty into a multi-objective management model for the optimal design of groundwater pumping strategies from the unconfined Bonriki aquifer. To achieve computational efficiency and feasibility of the management model, the calibrated numerical simulation model in the S/O model was is replaced with ensembles of SVMR surrogate models. Each SVMR standalone surrogate model in the ensemble is constructed using datasets from different numerical simulation models with different hydraulic conductivity and porosity values. These ensemble SVMR models were coupled to the MOGA model to solve the Bonriki aquifer management problem for ensuring sustainable withdrawal rates that maintain specified salinity limits. The executed optimization model presented a Pareto-front with 600 non-dominated optimal trade-off pumping solutions. The reliability of the management model, established after validation of the optimal solution results, suggests that the implemented constraints of the optimization problem were satisfied; i.e., the salinities at monitoring locations remained within the pre-specified limits. The correct implementation of a prescribed optimal management strategy based on the coupled S/O model is always a concern for decision-makers. The management strategy actually implemented in the field sometimes deviates from the recommended optimal strategy, resulting in field-level deviations. Monitoring such field-level deviations during actual implementation of the recommended optimal management strategy and sequentially updating the strategy using feedback information is an important step towards adaptive management of coastal groundwater resources. In this study, a three-phase adaptive management framework for a coastal aquifer subjected to saltwater intrusion is applied and evaluated for a regional-scale coastal aquifer study area. The methodology adopted includes three sequential components. First, an optimal management strategy (consisting of groundwater extraction from production and barrier wells) is derived and implemented for the optimal management of the aquifer. The implemented management strategy is obtained by solving a homogeneous ensemble-based coupled S/O model. Second, a regional-scale optimal monitoring network is designed for the aquifer system, which considers possible user noncompliance of a recommended management strategy and uncertainty in aquifer parameter estimates. A new monitoring network design is formulated to ensure that candidate monitoring wells are placed at high risk (highly contaminated) locations. In addition, a k-means clustering methodology is utilized to select candidate monitoring wells in areas representative of the entire model domain. Finally, feedback information in the form of salinity measurements at monitoring wells is used to sequentially modify pumping strategies for future time periods in the management horizon. The developed adaptive management framework is evaluated by applying it to the Bonriki aquifer system. Overall, the results of this study suggest that the implemented adaptive management strategy has the potential to address practical implementation issues arising due to user noncompliance, as well as deviations between predicted and actual consequences of implementing a management strategy, and uncertainty in aquifer parameters. The use of ensemble prediction models is known to be more accurate standalone prediction models. The present study develops and utilises homogeneous and heterogeneous ensemble models based on several standalone evolutionary algorithms, including artificial neural networks (ANN), GP, SVMR and Gaussian process regression (GPR). These models are used to predict groundwater salinity in the Bonriki aquifer. Standalone and ensemble prediction models are trained and validated using identical pumping and salinity concentration datasets generated by solving numerical 3D transient density-dependent coastal aquifer flow and transport numerical simulation models. After validation, the ensemble models are used to predict salinity concentration at selected monitoring wells in the modelled aquifer under variable groundwater pumping conditions. The predictive capabilities of the developed ensemble models are quantified using standard statistical procedures. The performance evaluation results suggest that the predictive capabilities of the standalone prediction models (ANN, GP, SVMR and GPR) are comparable to those of the groundwater variable-density flow and salt transport numerical simulation model. However, GPR standalone models had better predictive capabilities than the other standalone models. Also, SVMR and GPR standalone models were more efficient (in terms of computational training time) than other standalone models. In terms of ensemble models, the performance of the homogeneous GPR ensemble model was found to be superior to that of the other homogeneous and heterogeneous ensemble models. Employing data-driven predictive models as replacements for complex groundwater flow and transport models enables the prediction of future scenarios and also helps save computational time, effort and requirements when developing optimal coastal aquifer management strategies based on coupled S/O models. In this study, a new data-driven model, namely Group method for data handling (GMDH) approach is developed and utilized to predict salinity concentration in a coastal aquifer and, simultaneously, determine the most influential input predictor variables (pumping rates) that had the most impact onto the outcomes (salinity at monitoring locations). To confirm the importance of variables, three tests are conducted, in which new GMDH models are constructed using subsets of the original datasets. In TEST 1, new GMDH models are constructed using a set of most influential variables only. In TEST 2, a subset of 20 variables (10 most and 10 least influential variables) are used to develop new GMDH models. In TEST 3, a subset of the least influential variables is used to develop GMDH models. A performance evaluation demonstrates that the GMDH models developed using the entire dataset have reasonable predictive accuracy and efficiency. A comparison of the performance evaluations of the three tests highlights the importance of appropriately selecting input pumping rates when developing predictive models. These results suggest that incorporating the least influential variables decreases model accuracy; thus, only considering the most influential variables in salinity prediction models is beneficial and appropriate. This study also investigated the efficiency and viability of using artificial freshwater recharge (AFR) to increase fresh groundwater pumping rates from production wells. First, the effect of AFR on the inland encroachment of saline water is quantified for existing scenarios. Specifically, groundwater head and salinity differences at monitoring locations before and after artificial recharge are presented. Second, a multi-objective management model incorporating groundwater pumping and AFR is implemented to control groundwater salinization in an illustrative coastal aquifer system. A coupled SVMR-MOGA model is developed for prescribing optimal management strategies that incorporate AFR and groundwater pumping wells. The Pareto-optimal front obtained from the SVMR-MOGA optimization model presents a set of optimal solutions for the sustainable management of the coastal aquifer. The pumping strategies obtained as Pareto-optimal solutions with and without freshwater recharge shows that saltwater intrusion is sensitive to AFR. Also, the hydraulic head lenses created by AFR can be used as one practical option to control saltwater intrusion. The developed 3D saltwater intrusion model, the predictive capabilities of the developed SVMR models, and the feasibility of using the proposed coupled multi-objective SVMR-MOGA optimization model make the proposed methodology potentially suitable for solving large-scale regional saltwater intrusion management problems. Overall, the development and evaluation of various groundwater numerical simulation models, predictive models, multi-objective management strategies and adaptive methodologies will provide decision-makers with tools for the sustainable management of coastal aquifers. It is envisioned that the outcomes of this research will provide useful information to groundwater managers and stakeholders, and offer potential resolutions to policy-makers regarding the sustainable management of groundwater resources. The real-life case study of the Bonriki aquifer presented in this study provides the scientific community with a broader understanding of groundwater resource issues in coastal aquifers and establishes the practical utility of the developed management strategies

A hybridized model based on neural network and swarm intelligence-grey wolf algorithm for spatial prediction of urban flood-inundation

In regions with lack of hydrological and hydraulic data, a spatial flood modeling and mapping is an opportunity for the urban authorities to predict the spatial distribution and the intensity of the flooding. It helps decision-makers to develop effective flood prevention and management plans. In this study, flood inventory data were prepared based on the historical and field surveys data by Sari municipality and regional water company of Mazandaran, Iran. The collected flood data accompanied with different variables (digital elevation model and slope have been considered as topographic variables, land use/land cover, precipitation, curve number, distance to river, distance to channel and depth to groundwater as environmental variables) were applied to novel hybridized model based on neural network and swarm intelligence-grey wolf algorithm (NN-SGW) to map flood-inundation. Several confusion matrix criteria were used for accuracy evaluation by cutoff-dependent and independent metrics (e.g., efficiency (E), positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)). The accuracy of the flood inundation map produced by the NN-SGW model was compared with that of maps produced by four state-of-the-art benchmark models: random forest (RF), logistic model tree (LMT), classification and regression trees (CART), and J48 decision tree (J48DT). The NN-SGW model outperformed all benchmark models in both training (E = 90.5%, PPV = 93.7%, NPV = 87.3%, AUC = 96.3%) and validation (E = 79.4%, PPV = 85.3%, NPV = 73.5%, AUC = 88.2%). As the NN-SGW model produced the most accurate flood-inundation map, it can be employed for robust flood contingency planning. Based on the obtained results from NN-SGW model, distance from channel, distance from river, and depth to groundwater were identified as the most important variables for spatial prediction of urban flood inundation. This work can serve as a basis for future studies seeking to predict flood susceptibility in urban areas using hybridized machine learning (ML) models and can also be applied in other urban areas where flood inundation presents a pressing challenge, and there are some problems regarding required model and availability of input data

Application of hybrid machine learning models and data pre-processing to predict water level of watersheds: Recent trends and future perspective

The community’s well-being and economic livelihoods are heavily influenced by the water level of watersheds. The changes in water levels directly affect the circulation processes of lakes and rivers that control water mixing and bottom sediment resuspension, further affecting water quality and aquatic ecosystems. Thus, these considerations have made the water level monitoring process essential to save the environment. Machine learning hybrid models are emerging robust tools that are successfully applied for water level monitoring. Various models have been developed, and selecting the optimal model would be a lengthy procedure. A timely, detailed, and instructive overview of the models’ concepts and historical uses would be beneficial in preventing researchers from overlooking models’ potential selection and saving significant time on the problem. Thus, recent research on water level prediction using hybrid machines is reviewed in this article to present the “state of the art” on the subject and provide some suggestions on research methodologies and models. This comprehensive study classifies hybrid models into four types algorithm parameter optimisation-based hybrid models (OBH), pre-processing-based hybrid models (PBH), the components combination-based hybrid models (CBH), and hybridisation of parameter optimisation-based with preprocessing-based hybrid models (HOPH); furthermore, it explains the pre-processing of data in detail. Finally, the most popular optimisation methods and future perspectives and conclusions have been discussed