Multi-objective optimization as a tool to identify possibilities for future agricultural landscapes

Agricultural landscapes provide many functions simultaneously including food production, regulation of water and regulation of greenhouse gases. Thus, it is challenging to make land management decisions, particularly transformative changes, that improve on one function without unintended consequences on other functions. To make informed decisions the trade-offs between different landscape functions must be considered. Here, we use a multi-objective optimization algorithm with a model of crop production that also simulates environmental effects such as nitrous oxide emissions to identify trade-off frontiers and associated possibilities for agricultural management. Trade-offs are identified in three soil types, using wheat production in the UK as an example, then the trade-off for combined management of the three soils is considered. The optimisation algorithm identifies trade-offs between different objectives and allows them to be visualised. For example, we observed a highly non-linear trade-off between wheat yield and nitrous oxide emissions, illustrating where small changes might have a large impact. We used a cluster analysis to identify distinct management strategies with similar management actions and use these clusters to link the trade-off curves to possibilities for management. There were more possible strategies for achieving desirable environmental outcomes and remaining profitable when the management of different soil types was considered together. Interestingly, it was on the soil capable of the highest potential profit that lower profit strategies were identified as useful for combined management. Meanwhile, to maintain average profitability across the soils, it was necessary to maximise the profit from the soil with the lowest potential profit. These results are somewhat counterintuitive and so the range of strategies supplied by the model could be used to stimulate discussion amongst stakeholders. In particular, as some key objectives can be met in different ways, stakeholders could discuss the impact of these management strategies on other objectives not quantified by the model

HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS AND TRADE-OFFS ASSOCIATED WITH FOREST-BASED BIOENERGY DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AMERICAS

A simulation-based framework for studying hydrologic impacts and associated tradeoffs for existing and proposed biofuel projects in the US (poplar), Argentina (eucalyptus) and Mexico (oil palm) is developed. For each case study, a representative watershed is selected and a SWAT model is set up and calibrated for an improved simulation of hydrologic processes and plant growth cycles. Potential bioenergy scenarios are developed that represent various planting densities, harvest cycles, fertilization and irrigation rates, land cover types being converted, slope, and locations across the watershed. Simulations indicate that growth and biomass production are significantly dependent on nitrogen availability, making fertilization a necessary management practice. However, there is a threshold beyond which further fertilization has no impact on yield and only increases the potential for non-point source pollution from contaminated runoff and leaching of nutrients. In contrast to fertilization, irrigation is not an impactful parameter due to the high average annual precipitation amounts in the case study watersheds. All the studies show significantly higher water use (evapotranspiration, ET) by the bioenergy feedstock due to fertilization, high planting density and/or morphology of the trees compared to the land cover that they replace. Simulation results indicate that average annual ET rates are 24%, 24% and 45% higher for poplar, eucalyptus and oil palm, respectively. The higher water use leads to a decrease in streamflow, especially during the low-flow months and dry years. The timing and degree of change in the streamflow is dependent on the crop, area of the plantation, and climate. On a watershed scale, the average annual decreases in streamflow as a result of planting poplar (on 70% of the watershed), eucalyptus (63% of the watershed) and oil palm (62% of the watershed) are found to be 21%, 28% and 9%, respectively. In all case studies, management practices are demonstrated to be significantly sensitive parameters for improving yield and mitigating negative environmental impacts. Water-energy tradeoff curves are plotted for each case to evaluate the most efficient management practices in terms of water and fertilizer use. The most productive scenarios can produce up to 6.5, 12.8 and 12.9 ton/ha/year biomass for poplar, eucalyptus and oil palm, respectively. Farm gate-level water footprints to produce bioenergy are estimated for all the case studies, indicating a lower water requirement for biodiesel production from eucalyptus compared to other case studies and reported values in literature. The green water footprint estimates indicate 98, 57 and 87 m3 water/GJ for poplar, eucalyptus and oil palm, respectively

Rainfed agriculture: unlocking the potential

Rainfed farming / Soil degradation / Crop production / Climate change / Irrigation methods / Water harvesting / Yield gap / Models / Supplemental irrigation / Water productivity / Watershed management / India

Benefits and trade-offs of optimizing global land use for food, water, and carbon

Current large-scale patterns of land use reflect history, local traditions, and productioncosts, much more so than they reflect biophysical potential or global supply anddemand for food and freshwater, or—more recently—climate change mitigation. Wequantified alternative land-use allocations that consider trade-offs for these demandsby combining a dynamic vegetation model and an optimization algorithm to determinePareto-optimal land-use allocations under changing climate conditions in 2090–2099and alternatively in 2033–2042. These form the outer bounds of the option spacefor global land-use transformation. Results show a potential to increase all threeindicators (+83% in crop production,+8% in available runoff, and+3% in carbonstorage globally) compared to the current land-use configuration, with clear land-use priority areas: Tropical and boreal forests were preserved, crops were produced intemperate regions, and pastures were preferentially allocated in semiarid grasslands andsavannas. Transformations toward optimal land-use patterns would imply extensivereconfigurations and changes in land management, but the required annual land-usechanges were nevertheless of similar magnitude as those suggested by established land-use change scenarios. The optimization results clearly show that large benefits couldbe achieved when land use is reconsidered under a “global supply” perspective with aregional focus that differs across the world’s regions in order to achieve the supply ofkey ecosystem services under the emerging global pressures

Water, waste, energy and food nexus in Brazil: Identifying a resource interlinkage research agenda through a systematic review

The resource nexus consists of a framework to address interlinkages between natural resources and systems that provide water, energy, food and waste management. It transcends traditional assessments conducted in “silos”, raising trade-offs and synergies that are rarely acknowledged. The nexus framework is intrinsically context-specific, as each respective region has particularities in terms of critical interlinkages. Brazil is the world's eighth largest economy [1] and is heavily reliant on natural resources. This paper considers Brazil to be a textbook case for nexus research that identifies critical interlinkages that are neglected by literature, which is typically based on single-resource analysis. It proposes a research agenda to advance resource nexus assessments and improve resource governance in Brazil. We propose a novel method for nexus research, systematically reviewing geographical context-specific papers in relevant single nexus dimensions and establishing resource interlinkages that characterise research gaps and policy priorities. We found that 36% of practices reviewed involve more than one resource at a time, characterising interlinkages not analysed by the literature. Lastly, selected quantitative indicators were used to identify critical interlinkages by analysing the representativeness of practices in the national context, and the relevance of synergies or trade-offs for Brazil. Critical interlinkages in Brazil were found to be irrigation for energy crop expansion (water, food and energy); transport biofuels and fuelwood (water, energy, food); deforestation for new pasture (water, energy, food); and hydropower generation (water and energy). These are, therefore, priorities for future nexus research and for efforts to address synergies and trade-offs in resource governance

Quantifying stakeholder understanding of an ecosystem service trade-off

Sustainable management of global natural resources is challenged by social and environmental drivers, adding pressure to ecosystem service provision in many regions of the world where there are competing demands on environmental resources. Understanding trade-offs between ecosystem services and how they are valued by different stakeholder groups is therefore critical to maximise benefits and avoid conflict between competing uses. In this study we developed a novel participatory trade-off experiment to elicit the perception of 43 participants, from across four key stakeholder groups, working in land and water management (Environmental Regulators, Farming Advisors, Water Industry Staff and Catchment Scientists). Using the Production Possibility Frontier (PPF) concept, we quantified stakeholder assessment of both the shape and the uncertainty around the PPF in a trade-off between agricultural intensity and the ecological health of freshwater systems. The majority of stakeholder groups selected threshold and logistic decay trade-off curves to describe the relationship of the trade-off, and estimated the uncertainty around the curves to be intermediate or large. The views of the four stakeholder groups differed significantly regarding how they estimated stakeholder trade-off prioritisation; the largest difference in perspectives was identified between Environmental Regulators and Farm Advisors. The methodology considered the cultural, socio-economic and institutional specificities of an ecosystem service interaction and identified potential sources of conflict but also possible solutions for win-win opportunities to explore and share understanding between stakeholders. Valuing stakeholder knowledge as a form of expert data and integrating this into participatory decision-making processes for land and water management thus contributes considerable value beyond traditional approaches to ecosystem service assessments

Identifying efficient Nitrate reduction strategies in the Upper Danube

Nitrogen losses in the form of Nitrate (N-NO3) from point and diffuse sources of pollution are recognized to be the leading cause of water body impairment throughout Europe. Implementation of conservation programs is perceived as being crucial for restoring and protecting the good ecological status of freshwater bodies. The success of conservation programs depends on the efficient identification of management solutions with respect to the envisaged environmental and economic objectives. This is a complex task, especially considering that costs and effectiveness of conservation strategies depend on their locations. We applied a multi-objective, spatially explicit analysis tool, the R-SWAT-DM framework, to search for efficient, spatially-targeted solution of Nitrate abatement in the Upper Danube Basin. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model served as the nonpoint source pollution estimator for current conditions as well as for scenarios with modified agricultural practices and waste water treatment upgrading. A spatially explicit optimization analysis that considered point and diffuse sources of Nitrate was performed to search for strategies that could achieve largest pollution abatement at minimum cost. The set of optimal spatial conservation strategies identified in the Basin indicated that it could be possible to reduce Nitrate loads by more than 50% while simultaneously provide a higher income