Sliced rotated sphere packing designs

Space-filling designs are popular choices for computer experiments. A sliced design is a design that can be partitioned into several subdesigns. We propose a new type of sliced space-filling design called sliced rotated sphere packing designs. Their full designs and subdesigns are rotated sphere packing designs. They are constructed by rescaling, rotating, translating and extracting the points from a sliced lattice. We provide two fast algorithms to generate such designs. Furthermore, we propose a strategy to use sliced rotated sphere packing designs adaptively. Under this strategy, initial runs are uniformly distributed in the design space, follow-up runs are added by incorporating information gained from initial runs, and the combined design is space-filling for any local region. Examples are given to illustrate its potential application

Validating Sample Average Approximation Solutions with Negatively Dependent Batches

Sample-average approximations (SAA) are a practical means of finding approximate solutions of stochastic programming problems involving an extremely large (or infinite) number of scenarios. SAA can also be used to find estimates of a lower bound on the optimal objective value of the true problem which, when coupled with an upper bound, provides confidence intervals for the true optimal objective value and valuable information about the quality of the approximate solutions. Specifically, the lower bound can be estimated by solving multiple SAA problems (each obtained using a particular sampling method) and averaging the obtained objective values. State-of-the-art methods for lower-bound estimation generate batches of scenarios for the SAA problems independently. In this paper, we describe sampling methods that produce negatively dependent batches, thus reducing the variance of the sample-averaged lower bound estimator and increasing its usefulness in defining a confidence interval for the optimal objective value. We provide conditions under which the new sampling methods can reduce the variance of the lower bound estimator, and present computational results to verify that our scheme can reduce the variance significantly, by comparison with the traditional Latin hypercube approach

Design of Experiments for Screening

The aim of this paper is to review methods of designing screening experiments, ranging from designs originally developed for physical experiments to those especially tailored to experiments on numerical models. The strengths and weaknesses of the various designs for screening variables in numerical models are discussed. First, classes of factorial designs for experiments to estimate main effects and interactions through a linear statistical model are described, specifically regular and nonregular fractional factorial designs, supersaturated designs and systematic fractional replicate designs. Generic issues of aliasing, bias and cancellation of factorial effects are discussed. Second, group screening experiments are considered including factorial group screening and sequential bifurcation. Third, random sampling plans are discussed including Latin hypercube sampling and sampling plans to estimate elementary effects. Fourth, a variety of modelling methods commonly employed with screening designs are briefly described. Finally, a novel study demonstrates six screening methods on two frequently-used exemplars, and their performances are compared

Exploratory ensemble designs for environmental models using k-extended Latin Hypercubes

Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.publication-status: AcceptedOpen Access articleIn this paper we present a novel, flexible, and multi-purpose class of designs for initial exploration of the parameter spaces of computer models, such as those used to study many features of the environment. The idea applies existing technology aimed at expanding a Latin Hypercube (LHC) in order to generate initial LHC designs that are composed of many smaller LHCs. The resulting design and its component parts are designed so that each is approximately orthogonal and maximises a measure of coverage of the parameter space. Designs of the type advocated for in this paper are particularly useful when we want to simultaneously quantify parametric uncertainty and any uncertainty due to the initial conditions, boundary conditions, or forcing functions required to run the model. This makes the class of designs particularly suited to environmental models, such as climate models that contain all of these features. The proposed designs are particularly suited to initial exploratory ensembles whose goal is to guide the design of further ensembles aimed at, for example, calibrating the model. We introduce a new emulator diagnostic that exploits the structure of the advocated ensemble designs and allows for the assessment of structural weaknesses in the statistical modelling. We provide illustrations of the method through a simple example and describe a 400 member ensemble of the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) ocean model designed using the method. We build an emulator for NEMO using the created design to illustrate the use of our emulator diagnostic test.Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC

Rotated sphere packing designs

We propose a new class of space-filling designs called rotated sphere packing designs for computer experiments. The approach starts from the asymptotically optimal positioning of identical balls that covers the unit cube. Properly scaled, rotated, translated and extracted, such designs are excellent in maximin distance criterion, low in discrepancy, good in projective uniformity and thus useful in both prediction and numerical integration purposes. We provide a fast algorithm to construct such designs for any numbers of dimensions and points with R codes available online. Theoretical and numerical results are also provided