Development of probabilistic models for quantitative pathway analysis of plant pest introduction for the EU territory

This report demonstrates a probabilistic quantitative pathway analysis model that can be used in risk assessment for plant pest introduction into EU territory on a range of edible commodities (apples, oranges, stone fruits and wheat). Two types of model were developed: a general commodity model that simulates distribution of an imported infested/infected commodity to and within the EU from source countries by month; and a consignment model that simulates the movement and distribution of individual consignments from source countries to destinations in the EU. The general pathway model has two modules. Module 1 is a trade pathway model, with a Eurostat database of five years of monthly trade volumes for each specific commodity into the EU28 from all source countries and territories. Infestation levels based on interception records, commercial quality standards or other information determine volume of infested commodity entering and transhipped within the EU. Module 2 allocates commodity volumes to processing, retail use and waste streams and overlays the distribution onto EU NUTS2 regions based on population densities and processing unit locations. Transfer potential to domestic host crops is a function of distribution of imported infested product and area of domestic production in NUTS2 regions, pest dispersal potential, and phenology of susceptibility in domestic crops. The consignment model covers the several routes on supply chains for processing and retail use. The output of the general pathway model is a distribution of estimated volumes of infested produce by NUTS2 region across the EU28, by month or annually; this is then related to the accessible susceptible domestic crop. Risk is expressed as a potential volume of infested fruit in potential contact with an area of susceptible domestic host crop. The output of the consignment model is a volume of infested produce retained at each stage along the specific consignment trade chain

Comparative Phylogeography in Fijian Coral Reef Fishes: A Multi-Taxa Approach towards Marine Reserve Design

Delineating barriers to connectivity is important in marine reserve design as they describe the strength and number of connections among a reserve’s constituent parts, and ultimately help characterize the resilience of the system to perturbations at each node. Here we demonstrate the utility of multi-taxa phylogeography in the design of a system of marine protected areas within Fiji. Gathering mtDNA control region data from five species of coral reef fish in five genera and two families, we find a range of population structure patterns, from those experiencing little (Chrysiptera talboti, Halichoeres hortulanus, and Pomacentrus maafu), to moderate (Amphiprion barberi, Wst = 0.14 and Amblyglyphidodon orbicularis Wst = 0.05) barriers to dispersal. Furthermore estimates of gene flow over ecological time scales suggest speciesspecific, asymmetric migration among the regions within Fiji. The diversity among species-specific results underscores the limitations of generalizing from single-taxon studies, including the inability to differentiate between a species-specific result and a replication of concordant phylogeographic patterns, and suggests that greater taxonomic coverage results in greater resolution of community dynamics within Fiji. Our results indicate that the Fijian reefs should not be managed as a single unit, and that closely related species can express dramatically different levels of population connectivity

Effects of regional differences and demography in modelling foot-and-mouth disease in cattle at the national scale

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a fast-spreading viral infection that can produce large and costly outbreaks in livestock populations. Transmission occurs at multiple spatial scales, as can the actions used to control outbreaks. The US cattle industry is spatially expansive, with heterogeneous distributions of animals and infrastructure. We have developed a model that incorporates the effects of scale for both disease transmission and control actions, applied here in simulating FMD outbreaks in US cattle. We simulated infection initiating in each of the 3049 counties in the contiguous US, 100 times per county. When initial infection was located in specific regions, large outbreaks were more likely to occur, driven by infrastructure and other demographic attributes such as premises clustering and number of cattle on premises. Sensitivity analyses suggest these attributes had more impact on outbreak metrics than the ranges of estimated disease parameter values. Additionally, although shipping accounted for a small percentage of overall transmission, areas receiving the most animal shipments tended to have other attributes that increase the probability of large outbreaks. The importance of including spatial and demographic heterogeneity in modelling outbreak trajectories and control actions is illustrated by specific regions consistently producing larger outbreaks than others

Molecular phylogenetics reveals a complex history underlying cryptic diversity in the Bush Squeaker Frog (Arthroleptis wahlbergii) in southern Africa

Throughout the Miocene, the African landscape underwent broad climatic shifts that profoundly influenced the distribution of fauna and flora. Since the late Miocene, these shifts have created a landscape in southern Africa that is strongly characterised by savanna and arid environments. Forests persist in small fragments, primarily in mountainous or heterogeneous landscapes. Arthroleptis wahlbergii is a small frog endemic to eastern South Africa that has presumed low dispersal ability. Because of its preference for forests, the dynamics of forests since the late Miocene in this region might have promoted diversification within A. wahlbergii. To investigate whether habitat fragmentation might have driven divergences among populations, we carried out species distribution modelling and population level and phylogenetic analyses using two genetic loci (16S, mitochondrial; RAG-1, nuclear) sequenced for 48 individuals from 14 forests across the c. 500 km range of this species. There is substantial population level structuring within A. wahlbergii, however the structure does not relate to forest types or catchments. We instead propose that the structure is a result of dynamic and idiosyncratic changes in forest connectivity over the Pleistocene. We identified two geographically circumscribed clades, the northern of which corresponds to true A. wahlbergii. The southern clade corresponds to populations from which Arthroleptis wageri FitzSimons, 1930 was described. This has long been considered a synonym of A. wahlbergii, but our molecular phylogenetic and distribution modelling supports recognising A. wageri as a distinct species

Scalable and Adaptively Secure Any-Trust Distributed Key Generation and All-hands Checkpointing

The classical distributed key generation protocols (DKG) are resurging due to their widespread applications in blockchain. While efforts have been made to improve DKG communication, practical large scale deployments are still yet to come, due to various challenges including broadcast channel scalability and worst-case complaint phase. In this paper, we propose a practical DKG for DL-based cryptosystems, with only (quasi-)linear computation/communication cost per participant, with the help of a public ledger, and beacon; Notably, our DKG only incurs constant-size blockchain storage cost for broadcast, even in the face of worst-case complaints. Moreover, our protocol satisfies adaptive security. The key to our improvements lies in delegating the most costly operations to an Any-Trust group. This group is randomly sampled and consists of a small number of individuals. The population only trusts that at least one member in the group is honest, without knowing which one. Additionally, we introduce an extended broadcast channel based on a blockchain and data dispersal network (such as IPFS), enabling reliable broadcasting of arbitrary-size messages at the cost of constant-size blockchain storage, which may be of independent interest. Our DKG leads to a fully practical instantiation of Filecoin's checkpointing mechanism, in which all validators of a Proof-of-Stake (PoS) blockcahin periodically run DKG and threshold signing to create checkpoints on Bitcoin, thereby enhancing the security of the PoS chain. In comparison with another checkpointing approach of Babylon (Oakland, 2023), ours enjoys a significally smaller monetary cost of Bitcoin transaction fees. For a PoS chain with $2^{12}$ validators, our cost is merely 0.6\% of that incurred by Babylon's approach.Comment: 21 pages, 3 figure