A contribution to exchange rate forecasting based on machine learning techniques

El propòsit d'aquesta tesi és examinar les aportacions a l'estudi de la predicció de la taxa de canvi basada en l'ús de tècniques d'aprenentatge automàtic. Aquestes aportacions es veuen facilitades i millorades per l'ús de variables econòmiques, indicadors tècnics i variables de tipus ‘business and consumer survey’. Aquesta investigació s’organitza entorn d’una recopilació de quatre articles. L'objectiu de cadascun dels quatre treballs de recerca d'aquesta tesi és el de contribuir a l'avanç del coneixement sobre els efectes i mecanismes mitjançant els quals l'ús de variables econòmiques, indicadors tècnics, variables de tipus ‘business and consumer survey’, i la selecció dels paràmetres de models predictius són capaços de millorar les prediccions de la taxa de canvi. Fent ús d'una tècnica de predicció no lineal, el primer article d'aquesta tesi es centra majoritàriament en l'impacte que tenen l'ús de variables econòmiques i la selecció dels paràmetres dels models en les prediccions de la taxa de canvi per a dos països. L'últim experiment d'aquest primer article fa ús de la taxa de canvi del període anterior i d'indicadors econòmics com a variables d'entrada en els models predictius. El segon article d'aquesta tesi analitza com la combinació de mitjanes mòbils, variables de tipus ‘business and consumer survey’ i la selecció dels paràmetres dels models milloren les prediccions del canvi per a dos països. A diferència del primer article, aquest segon treball de recerca afegeix mitjanes mòbils i variables de tipus ‘business and consumer survey’ com a variables d'entrada en els models predictius, i descarta l'ús de variables econòmiques. Un dels objectius d'aquest segon article és determinar el possible impacte de les variables de tipus ‘business and consumer survey’ en les taxes de canvi. El tercer article d'aquesta tesi té els mateixos objectius que el segon, però amb l'excepció que l'anàlisi abasta les taxes de canvi de set països. El quart article de la tesi compta amb els mateixos objectius que l'article anterior, però amb la diferència que fa ús d'un sol indicador tècnic. En general, l'enfocament d'aquesta tesi pretén examinar diferents alternatives per a millorar les prediccions del tipus de canvi a través de l'ús de màquines de suport vectorial. Una combinació de variables i la selecció dels paràmetres dels models predictius ajudaran a aconseguir aquest propòsit.El propósito de esta tesis es examinar las aportaciones al estudio de la predicción de la tasa de cambio basada en el uso de técnicas de aprendizaje automático. Dichas aportaciones se ven facilitadas y mejoradas por el uso de variables económicas, indicadores técnicos y variables de tipo ‘business and consumer survey’. Esta investigación está organizada en un compendio de cuatro artículos. El objetivo de cada uno de los cuatro trabajos de investigación de esta tesis es el de contribuir al avance del conocimiento sobre los efectos y mecanismos mediante los cuales el uso de variables económicas, indicadores técnicos, variables de tipo ‘business and consumer survey’, y la selección de los parámetros de modelos predictivos son capaces de mejorar las predicciones de la tasa de cambio. Haciendo uso de una técnica de predicción no lineal, el primer artículo de esta tesis se centra mayoritariamente en el impacto que tienen el uso de variables económicas y la selección de los parámetros de los modelos en las predicciones de la tasa de cambio para dos países. El último experimento de este primer artículo hace uso de la tasa de cambio del periodo anterior y de indicadores económicos como variables de entrada en los modelos predictivos. El segundo artículo de esta tesis analiza cómo la combinación de medias móviles, variables de tipo ‘business and consumer survey’ y la selección de los parámetros de los modelos mejoran las predicciones del cambio para dos países. A diferencia del primer artículo, este segundo trabajo de investigación añade medias móviles y variables de tipo ‘business and consumer survey’ como variables de entrada en los modelos predictivos, y descarta el uso de variables económicas. Uno de los objetivos de este segundo artículo es determinar el posible impacto de las variables de tipo ‘business and consumer survey’ en las tasas de cambio. El tercer artículo de esta tesis tiene los mismos objetivos que el segundo, pero con la salvedad de que el análisis abarca las tasas de cambio de siete países. El cuarto artículo de esta tesis cuenta con los mismos objetivos que el artículo anterior, pero con la diferencia de que hace uso de un solo indicador técnico. En general, el enfoque de esta tesis pretende examinar diferentes alternativas para mejorar las predicciones del tipo de cambio a través del uso de máquinas de soporte vectorial. Una combinación de variables y la selección de los parámetros de los modelos predictivos ayudarán a conseguir este propósito.The purpose of this thesis is to examine the contribution made by machine learning techniques on exchange rate forecasting. Such contributions are facilitated and enhanced by the use of fundamental economic variables, technical indicators and business and consumer survey variables as inputs in the forecasting models selected. This research has been organized in a compendium of four articles. The aim of each of these four articles is to contribute to advance our knowledge on the effects and means by which the use of fundamental economic variables, technical indicators, business and consumer surveys, and a model’s free-parameters selection is capable of improving exchange rate predictions. Through the use of a non-linear forecasting technique, one research paper examines the effect of fundamental economic variables and a model’s parameters selection on exchange rate forecasts, whereas the other three articles concentrate on the effect of technical indicators, a model’s parameters selection and business and consumer surveys variables on exchange rate forecasting. The first paper of this thesis has the objective of examining fundamental economic variables and a forecasting model’s parameters in an effort to understand the possible advantages or disadvantages these variables may bring to the exchange rate predictions in terms of forecasting performance and accuracy. The second paper of this thesis analyses how the combination of moving averages, business and consumer surveys and a forecasting model’s parameters improves exchange rate predictions. Compared to the first paper, this second paper adds moving averages and business and consumer surveys variables as inputs to the forecasting model, and disregards the use of fundamental economic variables. One of the goals of this paper is to determine the possible effects of business and consumer surveys on exchange rates. The third paper of this thesis has the same objectives as the second paper, but its analysis is expanded by taking into account the exchange rates of 7 countries. The fourth paper in this thesis takes a similar approach as the second and third papers, but makes use of a single technical indicator. In general, this thesis focuses on the improvement of exchange rate predictions through the use of support vector machines. A combination of variables and a model’s parameters selection enhances the way to achieve this purpose

A Survey of Forex and Stock Price Prediction Using Deep Learning

The prediction of stock and foreign exchange (Forex) had always been a hot and profitable area of study. Deep learning application had proven to yields better accuracy and return in the field of financial prediction and forecasting. In this survey we selected papers from the DBLP database for comparison and analysis. We classified papers according to different deep learning methods, which included: Convolutional neural network (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Deep neural network (DNN), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Reinforcement Learning, and other deep learning methods such as HAN, NLP, and Wavenet. Furthermore, this paper reviewed the dataset, variable, model, and results of each article. The survey presented the results through the most used performance metrics: RMSE, MAPE, MAE, MSE, accuracy, Sharpe ratio, and return rate. We identified that recent models that combined LSTM with other methods, for example, DNN, are widely researched. Reinforcement learning and other deep learning method yielded great returns and performances. We conclude that in recent years the trend of using deep-learning based method for financial modeling is exponentially rising

Collaborative Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithms in search of better Pareto Fronts. An application to trading systems

Technical indicators use graphic representations of data sets by applying various mathematical formulas to financial time series of prices. These formulas comprise a set of rules and parameters whose values are not necessarily known and depend on many factors: the market in which it operates, the size of the time window, and others. This paper focuses on the real-time optimization of the parameters applied for analyzing time series of data. In particular, we optimize the parameters of technical and financial indicators and propose other applications, such as glucose time series. We propose the combination of several Multi-objective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs). Unlike other approaches, this paper applies a set of different MOEAs, collaborating to construct a global Pareto Set of solutions. Solutions for financial problems seek high returns with minimal risk. The optimization process is continuous and occurs at the same frequency as the investment time interval. This technique permits the application of non-dominated solutions obtained with different MOEAs simultaneously. Experimental results show that this technique increases the returns of the commonly used Buy \& Hold strategy and other multi-objective strategies, even for daily operations

mt5se: An Open Source Framework for Building Autonomous Traders

Autonomous trading robots have been studied in artificial intelligence area for quite some time. Many AI techniques have been tested for building autonomous agents able to trade financial assets. These initiatives include traditional neural networks, fuzzy logic, reinforcement learning but also more recent approaches like deep neural networks and deep reinforcement learning. Many developers claim to be successful in creating robots with great performance when simulating execution with historical price series, so called backtesting. However, when these robots are used in real markets frequently they present poor performance in terms of risks and return. In this paper, we propose an open source framework, called mt5se, that helps the development, backtesting, live testing and real operation of autonomous traders. We built and tested several traders using mt5se. The results indicate that it may help the development of better traders. Furthermore, we discuss the simple architecture that is used in many studies and propose an alternative multiagent architecture. Such architecture separates two main concerns for portfolio manager (PM) : price prediction and capital allocation. More than achieve a high accuracy, a PM should increase profits when it is right and reduce loss when it is wrong. Furthermore, price prediction is highly dependent of asset's nature and history, while capital allocation is dependent only on analyst's prediction performance and assets' correlation. Finally, we discuss some promising technologies in the area.Comment: This paper replaces an old version of the framework, called mt5b3, which is now deprecate

Study on multi-SVM systems and their applications to pattern recognition

制度:新 ; 報告番号:甲3136号 ; 学位の種類:博士(工学) ; 授与年月日:2010/7/12 ; 早大学位記番号:新541

Stock Market Prediction via Deep Learning Techniques: A Survey

The stock market prediction has been a traditional yet complex problem researched within diverse research areas and application domains due to its non-linear, highly volatile and complex nature. Existing surveys on stock market prediction often focus on traditional machine learning methods instead of deep learning methods. Deep learning has dominated many domains, gained much success and popularity in recent years in stock market prediction. This motivates us to provide a structured and comprehensive overview of the research on stock market prediction focusing on deep learning techniques. We present four elaborated subtasks of stock market prediction and propose a novel taxonomy to summarize the state-of-the-art models based on deep neural networks from 2011 to 2022. In addition, we also provide detailed statistics on the datasets and evaluation metrics commonly used in the stock market. Finally, we highlight some open issues and point out several future directions by sharing some new perspectives on stock market prediction

Multi Indicator based Hierarchical Strategies for Technical Analysis of Crypto market Paradigm

The usage of technical analysis in the crypto market is very popular among algorithmic traders. This involves the application of strategies based on technical indicators, which shoot BUY and SELL signals to help the investors to take trading decisions. However, instead of depending on the popular myths of the market, a proper empirical analysis can be helpful in lucrative endeavors in trading cryptocurrencies. In this work, four technical indicators namely Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), Bollinger Bands (BB), Relative Strength Index (RSI), and Parabolic Stop And Reverse (PSAR) are used individually to devise strategies that are implemented, and their performance is validated using the price data of Bitcoin from yahoo finance for 2018-22, individually for each year and all the five years consolidated to compute the performance metrics including Profit percentage, Net profitability percentage, and Number of total transactions. The results show that the performance of strategies based on trend indicators is better than that of momentum indicators where the EMA strategy provided the best result with a profit percentage of 394.13%. Further, the performance of these strategies is analyzed in three different market scenarios namely Uptrend/Bullish trend, Downtrend/Bearish trend, and Fluctuating/oscillating markets to analyze the applicability of each of these smart strategies in the three scenarios. Based on the insights obtained from the analysis, Hybrid strategies using multiple indicators with a hierarchical approach are developed whose performance is further improved by imposing constraints in a Downtrend market scenario. The novelty of these algorithms is that they identify the scenario in the market using multiple indicators in a hierarchal approach, and utilize appropriate indicators as per the market scenario. Four strategies namely, Multi indicator based Hierarchical Strategy (MIHS) with EMA9, Multi indicator based Hierarchical Strategy (MIHS) with EMA7, Multi-Indicator based Hierarchical Constrained Strategy (MIHCS) with EMA9, and Multi-Indicator based Hierarchical Constrained Strategy (MIHCS) with EMA7 are developed which give profit percentage of 154.45%, 437.48%, 256.31%, and 701.77% respectively when applied on the Bitcoin price data during 2018-22

Agents in the market place an exploratory study on using intelligent agents to trade financial instruments

Tese de doutoramento em InformáticaThis dissertation documents our exploratory research aimed at investigating the utilization of intelligent agents in the development of automated financial trading strategies. In order to demonstrate this potential use for agent technology, we propose a hybrid cognitive architecture meant for the creation of autonomous agents capable of trading different types of financial instruments. This architecture was used to implement 10 currency trading agents and 25 stock trading agents. Their overall performance, evaluated according to the cumulative return and the maximum drawdown metrics, was found to be acceptable in a reasonably long simulation period. In order to improve this performance, we defined negotiation protocols that allowed the integration of the 35 trading agents in a multi-agent system, which proved to be better suited for withstanding sudden market events, due to the diversification of the investments. This system obtained very promising results, and remains open to many obvious improvements. Our findings lead us to conclude that there is indeed a place for intelligent agents in the financial industry; in particular, they hold the potential to be employed in the establishment of investment companies where software agents make all the trading decisions, with human intervention being relegated to simple administrative tasks.Esta dissertação documenta um estudo exploratório destinado a investigar a utilização de agentes inteligentes no desenvolvimento de estratégias de investimento financeiro automatizadas. Para demonstrar este uso potencial para tecnologia de agentes, foi proposta uma arquitectura cognitiva híbrida destinada à criação de agentes autónomos capazes de negociar diferentes tipos de instrumentos financeiros. Esta arquitectura foi utilizada para implementar 10 agentes que negoceiam pares cambiais, e 25 agentes que negoceiam acções. A performance global destes agentes, avaliada de acordo com as métricas de retorno acumulado e drawdown máximo, foi considerada aceitável ao longo de um período de simulação relativamente longo. Para melhorar esta performance, foram definidos protocolos de negociação que permitiram a integração dos 35 agentes num sistema multi-agente, que demonstrou estar melhor preparado para enfrentar alterações súbitas nos mercados, devido à diversificação dos investimentos. Este sistema obteve resultados muito promissores, e pode ainda ser sujeito a diversos melhoramentos. Os nossos resultados indiciam que os agentes inteligentes podem ocupar um lugar de relevo na indústria financeira; em particular, aparentam ter potencial suficiente para serem aplicados na criação de fundos de investimento onde todas as decisões de negociação são efectuadas por agentes de software, sendo a intervenção humana relegada para tarefas administrativas básicas

Forex Trading System Development

This Interactive Qualifying Project introduces the Foreign Exchange market with an emphasis on fundamental and technical parameters, in order to get started as a Forex trader. The purpose of this project is to systematically create a profitable trading strategy in the Forex market. The group used $100,000 each in a simulated account to trade different currency pairs on the TradeStation platform. During this process, two students in the group selected manual trading systems and the other two chose to trade automatically. After collecting the data, the group would compare the profits and constructed a most profitable system