Generalized belief change with imprecise probabilities and graphical models

We provide a theoretical investigation of probabilistic belief revision in complex frameworks, under extended conditions of uncertainty, inconsistency and imprecision. We motivate our kinematical approach by specializing our discussion to probabilistic reasoning with graphical models, whose modular representation allows for efficient inference. Most results in this direction are derived from the relevant work of Chan and Darwiche (2005), that first proved the inter-reducibility of virtual and probabilistic evidence. Such forms of information, deeply distinct in their meaning, are extended to the conditional and imprecise frameworks, allowing further generalizations, e.g. to experts' qualitative assessments. Belief aggregation and iterated revision of a rational agent's belief are also explored

Habits Over Routines: Remarks on Control Room Practices and Control Room Studies

The evolution of computer tools has had profound impacts on many aspects of control rooms and control room studies. In this paper, we discuss some key assumptions underpinning these studies based on a new case of the electricity distribution control rooms, where the reliability of the electricity infrastructure is managed by a combination of planning and real-time maintenance. Some of these practices have changed remarkably little – partially because they have been considered to have been ‘digitalized’ since the 1950s and have continued to amass digital solutions from different periods. Hence, the gradual transformation of control room work demands nuanced attention, both conceptual and empirical. To outline a framework for this work, we provide a conceptualization of organizational routines, habits, and reflectivity and synthesize existing CSCW and control room literature. We then present an empirical study that demonstrates our concepts and shows how they can be applied to study cooperative work. By addressing these aims the paper complements, and advances, the important topics recognized in this special theme issue and hence develops new research openings in CSCW. We address the necessity to avoid implicit determinism when analyzing new digital support tools and suggest focusing on how working habits mediate social changes, distribution, and decentralization in representing the power distribution in control rooms

Identification of Causal Paths and Prediction of Runway Incursion Risk using Bayesian Belief Networks

In the U.S. and worldwide, runway incursions are widely acknowledged as a critical concern for aviation safety. However, despite widespread attempts to reduce the frequency of runway incursions, the rate at which these events occur in the U.S. has steadily risen over the past several years. Attempts to analyze runway incursion causation have been made, but these methods are often limited to investigations of discrete events and do not address the dynamic interactions that lead to breaches of runway safety. While the generally static nature of runway incursion research is understandable given that data are often sparsely available, the unmitigated rate at which runway incursions take place indicates a need for more comprehensive risk models that extend currently available research. This dissertation summarizes the existing literature, emphasizing the need for cross-domain methods of causation analysis applied to runway incursions in the U.S. and reviewing probabilistic methodologies for reasoning under uncertainty. A holistic modeling technique using Bayesian Belief Networks as a means of interpreting causation even in the presence of sparse data is outlined in three phases: causal factor identification, model development, and expert elicitation, with intended application at the systems or regulatory agency level. Further, the importance of investigating runway incursions probabilistically and incorporating information from human factors, technological, and organizational perspectives is supported. A method for structuring a Bayesian network using quantitative and qualitative event analysis in conjunction with structured expert probability estimation is outlined and results are presented for propagation of evidence through the model as well as for causal analysis. In this research, advances in the aggregation of runway incursion data are outlined, and a means of combining quantitative and qualitative information is developed. Building upon these data, a method for developing and validating a Bayesian network while maintaining operational transferability is also presented. Further, the body of knowledge is extended with respect to structured expert judgment, as operationalization is combined with elicitation of expert data to create a technique for gathering expert assessments of probability in a computationally compact manner while preserving mathematical accuracy in rank correlation and dependence structure. The model developed in this study is shown to produce accurate results within the U.S. aviation system, and to provide a dynamic, inferential platform for future evaluation of runway incursion causation. These results in part confirm what is known about runway incursion causation, but more importantly they shed more light on multifaceted causal interactions and do so in a modeling space that allows for causal inference and evaluation of changes to the system in a dynamic setting. Suggestions for future research are also discussed, most prominent of which is that this model allows for robust and flexible assessment of mitigation strategies within a holistic model of runway safety

Computational Complexity of Strong Admissibility for Abstract Dialectical Frameworks

Abstract dialectical frameworks (ADFs) have been introduced as a formalism for modeling and evaluating argumentation allowing general logical satisfaction conditions. Different criteria used to settle the acceptance of arguments arecalled semantics. Semantics of ADFs have so far mainly been defined based on the concept of admissibility. Recently, the notion of strong admissibility has been introduced for ADFs. In the current work we study the computational complexityof the following reasoning tasks under strong admissibility semantics. We address 1. the credulous/skeptical decision problem; 2. the verification problem; 3. the strong justification problem; and 4. the problem of finding a smallest witness of strong justification of a queried argument