Evaluating Dynamic Signage for Emergency Evacuation using an Immersive Video Environment

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.There are numerous reasons to evacuate a building in case of emergency; generally evacuation runs in case of constraints as fire, earthquake, indoor air pollution incidents, terrorist attacks and so on. There was a fire tragedy reported on January 28, 2013 in a night club in Brazil that many victims confused the exit sign with that for the toilet sign, where 50 bodies were found dead in toilet. It is reported that the victims lost their sense of direction due to the smoke [1]. Consequently the traditional static emergency signs are no longer effective especially in a complex building. They are not intelligent to decide how many people are using different exit, where the fire is and how much it may spread or how the evacuee will decide and think while they are in panic. They are several attempts to simulate the evacuation area and create a better model to dynamically lead the evacuee to exit. However creating such system is difficult because the prediction of behaviors in emergency incidents, modeling and examination in the real scenario are the biggest problems. Evacuation exercise are expensive and time consuming, as a result Virtual Environment (VEs) might be the feasible solution to create the emergency scenario and to study the physical, cognitive, and perceptual capabilities of the evacuees, letting them to experience and feel the emergency incident that are impossible to apply in the real world. This project presents the use of VE, called Immersive Video Environment (IVE) [2] to investigate and evaluate the possible dynamic signage inside a building to guide the evacuees to safety and exit. IVE system contains three screens with 140 degree from each other using 3 back projected wall at the same time. In this study dynamic signs inform the evacuee by following the exit signs cause of fire emergency and move towards the exit. Generally the user of VE is disoriented or discomforted due to navigation (Travel) part. As a result, following factors are evaluated by using some pre-defined questionnaire such as Simulator Sickness Questionnaire and NASA TLX: 1. The pre-movement time or response time to the dynamic signs. 2. Panic behavior or Decision making 3. Comfort of the system due to navigation part. 4. Performance of IVE 5. Realism of the simulation 8 scenarios have been managed for this experiment in which each of them last around 30 to 40 seconds for a trip from start point to the exit door. In the entire scenario, the exit signs will be varied. The test participants were 10 people (5 Female, 5 Male) who come from different countries not specially Germany. There were great considerable results of decision making in this study for example, there were several errors for the fire sign during the experiment besides the response time for the fire sign were highly more than the other designs. From the evaluator recognition, it is said that their response has been influenced by the exit door or the design of sign. Generally the performance and the comfort of the system show interesting results in the emergency simulation and footage video for VE. There were a significant different in term of discomfort between men and women and the results of their response time had significant difference. By users rating, the realism of the simulation has been confirmed. For response time experiment, some errors and significant variation were observed during the individual test. The IVE can be used for future experiment investigation such as way finding. The proposed system shall help to yield more reliable information about human behavior and decision making in emergency egress and creating a model. Locations, timing, duration and speed, helping from dynamic signs can be considered as decision-making process subject to emergency evacuation

LED wristbands for cell-based crowd evacuation: an adaptive exit-choice guidance system architecture

Cell-based crowd evacuation systems provide adaptive or static exit-choice indications that favor a coordinated group dynamic, improving evacuation time and safety. While a great effort has been made to modeling its control logic by assuming an ideal communication and positioning infrastructure, the architectural dimension and the influence of pedestrian positioning uncertainty have been largely overlooked. In our previous research, a cell-based crowd evacuation system (CellEVAC) was proposed that dynamically allocates exit gates to pedestrians in a cell-based pedestrian positioning infrastructure. This system provides optimal exit-choice indications through color-based indications and a control logic module built upon an optimized discrete-choice model. Here, we investigate how location-aware technologies and wearable devices can be used for a realistic deployment of CellEVAC. We consider a simulated real evacuation scenario (Madrid Arena) and propose a system architecture for CellEVAC that includes: a controller node, a radio-controlled light-emitting diode (LED) wristband subsystem, and a cell-node network equipped with active Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) devices. These subsystems coordinate to provide control, display, and positioning capabilities. We quantitatively study the sensitivity of evacuation time and safety to uncertainty in the positioning system. Results showed that CellEVAC was operational within a limited range of positioning uncertainty. Further analyses revealed that reprogramming the control logic module through a simulation optimization process, simulating the positioning system's expected uncertainty level, improved the CellEVAC performance in scenarios with poor positioning systems.Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitivida

CellEVAC: an adaptive guidance system for crowd evacuation through behavioral optimization

A critical aspect of crowds' evacuation processes is the dynamism of individual decision making. Identifying optimal strategies at an individual level may improve both evacuation time and safety, which is essential for developing efficient evacuation systems. Here, we investigate how to favor a coordinated group dynamic through optimal exit-choice instructions using behavioral strategy optimization. We propose and evaluate an adaptive guidance system (Cell-based Crowd Evacuation, CellEVAC) that dynamically allocates colors to cells in a cellbased pedestrian positioning infrastructure, to provide efficient exit-choice indications. The operational module of CellEVAC implements an optimized discrete-choice model that integrates the influential factors that would make evacuees adapt their exit choice. To optimize the model, we used a simulation?optimization modeling framework that integrates microscopic pedestrian simulation based on the classical Social Force Model. In the majority of studies, the objective has been to optimize evacuation time. In contrast, we paid particular attention to safety by using Pedestrian Fundamental Diagrams that model the dynamics of the exit gates. CellEVAC has been tested in a simulated real scenario (Madrid Arena) under different external pedestrian flow patterns that simulate complex pedestrian interactions. Results showed that CellEVAC outperforms evacuation processes in which the system is not used, with an exponential improvement as interactions become complex. We compared our system with an existing approach based on Cartesian Genetic Programming. Our system exhibited a better overall performance in terms of safety, evacuation time, and the number of revisions of exit-choice decisions. Further analyses also revealed that Cartesian Genetic Programming generates less natural pedestrian reactions and movements than CellEVAC. The fact that the decision logic module is built upon a behavioral model seems to favor a more natural and effective response. We also found that our proposal has a positive influence on evacuations even for a low compliance rate (40%).Ministerio de Economía y Competitivida

Adaptive cell-based evacuation systems for leader-follower crowd evacuation

The challenge of controlling crowd movement at large events expands not only to the realm of emergency evacuations but also to improving non-critical conditions related to operational efficiency and comfort. In both cases, it becomes necessary to develop adaptive crowd motion control systems. In particular, adaptive cell-based crowd evacuation systems dynamically generate exit-choice recommendations favoring a coordinated group dynamic that improves safety and evacuation time. We investigate the viability of using this mechanism to develop a ‘‘leader-follower’’ evacuation system in which a trained evacuation staff guides evacuees safely to the exit gates. To validate the proposal, we use a simulation–optimization framework integrating microscopic simulation. Evacuees’ behavior has been modeled using a three-layered architecture that includes eligibility, exit-choice changing, and exit-choice models, calibrated with hypothetical-choice experiments. As a significant contribution of this work, the proposed behavior models capture the influence of leaders on evacuees, which is translated into exitchoice decisions and the adaptation of speed. This influence can be easily modulated to evaluate the evacuation efficiency under different evacuation scenarios and evacuees’ behavior profiles. When measuring the efficiency of the evacuation processes, particular attention has been paid to safety by using pedestrian Macroscopic Fundamental Diagrams (p-MFD), which model the crowd movement dynamics from a macroscopic perspective. The spatiotemporal view of the evacuation performance in the form of crowd-pressure vs. density values allowed us to evaluate and compare safety in different evacuation scenarios reasonably and consistently. Experimental results confirm the viability of using adaptive cell-based crowd evacuation systems as a guidance tool to be used by evacuation staff to guide evacuees. Interestingly, we found that evacuation staff motion speed plays a crucial role in balancing egress time and safety. Thus, it is expected that by instructing evacuation staff to move at a predefined speed, we can reach the desired balance between evacuation time, accident probability, and comfort

An analysis of a modified social force model in crowd emergency evacuation simulation

In crowd evacuation simulation, a number of exit point and obstacles play an important role that can influence the result in the evacuation simulation. This paper focuses on the movement of the crowd’s emergency evacuation based on a modified social force model (SFM) via optimising the obstacles interaction parameter in one the SFM component. The simulation also compared original SFM (without obstacles) and modified SFM (with obstacles). The results show the impact can minimize the concept of arching phenomenon (faster-is-slower). For an obstacles issue, it is proven that obstacles can help to reduce evacuation time in regards to its proper position and exit width

EVACUATION EFFICIENCY ASSESSMENT MODEL ON CRUISE SHIPS

Uslijed velikih pomorskih nezgoda brodova za kružna putovanja napuštanje broda uočava se kao jedan od najznačajnijih problema. U disertaciji su predstavljene opće smjernice, organizacijski ustroj, tijek informacija te postojeće metode upravljanja sustavima napuštanja broda za kružna putovanja. Predstavljen je uzročnoposljedični model razvoja pomorskih nezgoda koji mogu imati za posljedicu napuštanje broda. Utvrđeni su čimbenici koji utječu na postupak spašavanja, a njihove međuzavisnosti prikazane su Bayesovim mrežama. Izrađeni su opći kvalitativni i kvantitativni modeli uspješnosti spremnosti putnika i posade. Kvantificiranje utjecajnih čimbenika i uvjetnih vjerojatnosti učinjeno je temeljem statističkih podataka, analizom literature, anketnog upitnika i ekspertnog mišljenja. Prikazan je način dodjeljivanja stvarnih vrijednosti početnim varijablama koji se može koristiti na brodovima. Analizom osjetljivosti na varijablama spremnosti posade broda i uspješnosti vježbanja utvrđeni su njihovi najutjecajniji čimbenici, te su date preporuke za poboljšanje rezultata. Model spremnosti posade broda se može primijeniti na brodovima za kružna putovanja te osim procjene uspješnosti spremnosti posade broda može doprinijeti i kao potpora pri donošenju odluke.Evacuation in case of maritime accident is one of the crucial problem on cruise ships. The issue analysed in the dissertation are general guidelines of organization, organizational structure, main line of communication and current methods to determine the success of evacuation on a cruise ship. The cause-effect model of maritime accident development which can lead to decision making for evacuation and abandon is presented. Factors affecting the evacuation procedure and determined in the dissertation and their interdependence is shown by using the Bayesian Network. Qualitative passenger readiness and quantitative ship's crew readiness models have been developed. The influence factors affecting the evacuation process and conditional probability were quantified based on the statistical data, literature analysis, questionnaire and expert opinion. It is presented a method to determine correct data for roots variables on the ship. Sensitivity analysis was used to determine the most influential model factors, and recommendations for improving the results were provided. This model of crew readiness can be used on cruise ships and besides assessing the crew readiness it can help in the decision-making process

EVACUATION EFFICIENCY ASSESSMENT MODEL ON CRUISE SHIPS

Uslijed velikih pomorskih nezgoda brodova za kružna putovanja napuštanje broda uočava se kao jedan od najznačajnijih problema. U disertaciji su predstavljene opće smjernice, organizacijski ustroj, tijek informacija te postojeće metode upravljanja sustavima napuštanja broda za kružna putovanja. Predstavljen je uzročnoposljedični model razvoja pomorskih nezgoda koji mogu imati za posljedicu napuštanje broda. Utvrđeni su čimbenici koji utječu na postupak spašavanja, a njihove međuzavisnosti prikazane su Bayesovim mrežama. Izrađeni su opći kvalitativni i kvantitativni modeli uspješnosti spremnosti putnika i posade. Kvantificiranje utjecajnih čimbenika i uvjetnih vjerojatnosti učinjeno je temeljem statističkih podataka, analizom literature, anketnog upitnika i ekspertnog mišljenja. Prikazan je način dodjeljivanja stvarnih vrijednosti početnim varijablama koji se može koristiti na brodovima. Analizom osjetljivosti na varijablama spremnosti posade broda i uspješnosti vježbanja utvrđeni su njihovi najutjecajniji čimbenici, te su date preporuke za poboljšanje rezultata. Model spremnosti posade broda se može primijeniti na brodovima za kružna putovanja te osim procjene uspješnosti spremnosti posade broda može doprinijeti i kao potpora pri donošenju odluke.Evacuation in case of maritime accident is one of the crucial problem on cruise ships. The issue analysed in the dissertation are general guidelines of organization, organizational structure, main line of communication and current methods to determine the success of evacuation on a cruise ship. The cause-effect model of maritime accident development which can lead to decision making for evacuation and abandon is presented. Factors affecting the evacuation procedure and determined in the dissertation and their interdependence is shown by using the Bayesian Network. Qualitative passenger readiness and quantitative ship's crew readiness models have been developed. The influence factors affecting the evacuation process and conditional probability were quantified based on the statistical data, literature analysis, questionnaire and expert opinion. It is presented a method to determine correct data for roots variables on the ship. Sensitivity analysis was used to determine the most influential model factors, and recommendations for improving the results were provided. This model of crew readiness can be used on cruise ships and besides assessing the crew readiness it can help in the decision-making process

EVACUATION EFFICIENCY ASSESSMENT MODEL ON CRUISE SHIPS

Uslijed velikih pomorskih nezgoda brodova za kružna putovanja napuštanje broda uočava se kao jedan od najznačajnijih problema. U disertaciji su predstavljene opće smjernice, organizacijski ustroj, tijek informacija te postojeće metode upravljanja sustavima napuštanja broda za kružna putovanja. Predstavljen je uzročnoposljedični model razvoja pomorskih nezgoda koji mogu imati za posljedicu napuštanje broda. Utvrđeni su čimbenici koji utječu na postupak spašavanja, a njihove međuzavisnosti prikazane su Bayesovim mrežama. Izrađeni su opći kvalitativni i kvantitativni modeli uspješnosti spremnosti putnika i posade. Kvantificiranje utjecajnih čimbenika i uvjetnih vjerojatnosti učinjeno je temeljem statističkih podataka, analizom literature, anketnog upitnika i ekspertnog mišljenja. Prikazan je način dodjeljivanja stvarnih vrijednosti početnim varijablama koji se može koristiti na brodovima. Analizom osjetljivosti na varijablama spremnosti posade broda i uspješnosti vježbanja utvrđeni su njihovi najutjecajniji čimbenici, te su date preporuke za poboljšanje rezultata. Model spremnosti posade broda se može primijeniti na brodovima za kružna putovanja te osim procjene uspješnosti spremnosti posade broda može doprinijeti i kao potpora pri donošenju odluke.Evacuation in case of maritime accident is one of the crucial problem on cruise ships. The issue analysed in the dissertation are general guidelines of organization, organizational structure, main line of communication and current methods to determine the success of evacuation on a cruise ship. The cause-effect model of maritime accident development which can lead to decision making for evacuation and abandon is presented. Factors affecting the evacuation procedure and determined in the dissertation and their interdependence is shown by using the Bayesian Network. Qualitative passenger readiness and quantitative ship's crew readiness models have been developed. The influence factors affecting the evacuation process and conditional probability were quantified based on the statistical data, literature analysis, questionnaire and expert opinion. It is presented a method to determine correct data for roots variables on the ship. Sensitivity analysis was used to determine the most influential model factors, and recommendations for improving the results were provided. This model of crew readiness can be used on cruise ships and besides assessing the crew readiness it can help in the decision-making process