227,286 research outputs found
Forecasting in dynamic factor models using Bayesian model averaging
This paper considers the problem of forecasting in dynamic factor models using Bayesian model averaging. Theoretical justifications for averaging across models, as opposed to selecting a single model, are given. Practical methods for implementing Bayesian model averaging with factor models are described. These methods involve algorithms which simulate from the space defined by all possible models. We discuss how these simulation algorithms can also be used to select the model with the highest marginal likelihood (or highest value of an information criterion) in an efficient manner. We apply these methods to the problem of forecasting GDP and inflation using quarterly U.S. data on 162 time series. For both GDP and inflation, we find that the models which contain factors do out-forecast an AR(p), but only by a relatively small amount and only at short horizons. We attribute these findings to the presence of structural instability and the fact that lags of dependent variable seem to contain most of the information relevant for forecasting. Relative to the small forecasting gains provided by including factors, the gains provided by using Bayesian model averaging over forecasting methods based on a single model are appreciable
Locally adaptive estimation methods with application to univariate time series
The paper offers a unified approach to the study of three locally adaptive
estimation methods in the context of univariate time series from both
theoretical and empirical points of view. A general procedure for the
computation of critical values is given. The underlying model encompasses all
distributions from the exponential family providing for great flexibility. The
procedures are applied to simulated and real financial data distributed
according to the Gaussian, volatility, Poisson, exponential and Bernoulli
models. Numerical results exhibit a very reasonable performance of the methods.Comment: Submitted to the Electronic Journal of Statistics
(http://www.i-journals.org/ejs/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics
(http://www.imstat.org
Asset Pricing Theories, Models, and Tests
An important but still partially unanswered question in the investment field is why different assets earn substantially different returns on average. Financial economists have typically addressed this question in the context of theoretically or empirically motivated asset pricing models. Since many of the proposed “risk” theories are plausible, a common practice in the literature is to take the models to the data and perform “horse races” among competing asset pricing specifications. A “good” asset pricing model should produce small pricing (expected return) errors on a set of test assets and should deliver reasonable estimates of the underlying market and economic risk premia. This chapter provides an up-to-date review of the statistical methods that are typically used to estimate, evaluate, and compare competing asset pricing models. The analysis also highlights several pitfalls in the current econometric practice and offers suggestions for improving empirical tests
Challenges of Big Data Analysis
Big Data bring new opportunities to modern society and challenges to data
scientists. On one hand, Big Data hold great promises for discovering subtle
population patterns and heterogeneities that are not possible with small-scale
data. On the other hand, the massive sample size and high dimensionality of Big
Data introduce unique computational and statistical challenges, including
scalability and storage bottleneck, noise accumulation, spurious correlation,
incidental endogeneity, and measurement errors. These challenges are
distinguished and require new computational and statistical paradigm. This
article give overviews on the salient features of Big Data and how these
features impact on paradigm change on statistical and computational methods as
well as computing architectures. We also provide various new perspectives on
the Big Data analysis and computation. In particular, we emphasis on the
viability of the sparsest solution in high-confidence set and point out that
exogeneous assumptions in most statistical methods for Big Data can not be
validated due to incidental endogeneity. They can lead to wrong statistical
inferences and consequently wrong scientific conclusions
European exchange trading funds trading with locally weighted support vector regression
In this paper, two different Locally Weighted Support Vector Regression (wSVR) algorithms are generated and applied to the task of forecasting and trading five European Exchange Traded Funds. The trading application covers the recent European Monetary Union debt crisis. The performance of the proposed models is benchmarked against traditional Support Vector Regression (SVR) models. The Radial Basis Function, the Wavelet and the Mahalanobis kernel are explored and tested as SVR kernels. Finally, a novel statistical SVR input selection procedure is introduced based on a principal component analysis and the Hansen, Lunde, and Nason (2011) model confidence test. The results demonstrate the superiority of the wSVR models over the traditional SVRs and of the v-SVR over the ε-SVR algorithms. We note that the performance of all models varies and considerably deteriorates in the peak of the debt crisis. In terms of the kernels, our results do not confirm the belief that the Radial Basis Function is the optimum choice for financial series
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