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Ensuring Access to Safe and Nutritious Food for All Through the Transformation of Food Systems
Annual SHOT Report 2018
SHOT is affiliated to the Royal College of PathologistsAll NHS organisations must move away from a blame culture towards a just and learning culture. All clinical and laboratory staff should be encouraged to become familiar with human factors and ergonomics concepts. All transfusion decisions must be made after carefully assessing the risks and benefits of transfusion therapy. Collaboration and co-ordination among staff is vital
Large-Scale Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Using an Integrated Machine Learning Model: A Case Study in the Lvliang Mountains of China
Integration of different models may improve the performance of landslide susceptibility assessment, but few studies have tested it. The present study aims at exploring the way to integrating different models and comparing the results among integrated and individual models. Our objective is to answer this question: Will the integrated model have higher accuracy compared with individual model? The Lvliang mountains area, a landslide-prone area in China, was taken as the study area, and ten factors were considered in the influencing factors system. Three basic machine learning models (the back propagation (BP), support vector machine (SVM), and random forest (RF) models) were integrated by an objective function where the weight coefficients among different models were computed by the gray wolf optimization (GWO) algorithm. 80 and 20% of the landslide data were randomly selected as the training and testing samples, respectively, and different landslide susceptibility maps were generated based on the GIS platform. The results illustrated that the accuracy expressed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the BP-SVM-RF integrated model was the highest (0.7898), which was better than that of the BP (0.6929), SVM (0.6582), RF (0.7258), BP-SVM (0.7360), BP-RF (0.7569), and SVM-RF models (0.7298). The experimental results authenticated the effectiveness of the BP-SVM-RF method, which can be a reliable model for the regional landslide susceptibility assessment of the study area. Moreover, the proposed procedure can be a good option to integrate different models to seek an "optimal" result. Keywords: landslide susceptibility, random forest, integrated model, causal factor, GI
On the Mechanism of Building Core Competencies: a Study of Chinese Multinational Port Enterprises
This study aims to explore how Chinese multinational port enterprises (MNPEs) build
their core competencies. Core competencies are firms’special capabilities and sources
to gain sustainable competitive advantage (SCA) in marketplace, and the concept led
to extensive research and debates. However, few studies include inquiries about the
mechanisms of building core competencies in the context of Chinese MNPEs.
Accordingly, answers were sought to three research questions:
1. What are the core competencies of the Chinese MNPEs?
2. What are the mechanisms that the Chinese MNPEs use to build their core
competencies?
3. What are the paths that the Chinese MNPEs pursue to build their resources bases?
The study adopted a multiple-case study design, focusing on building mechanism of
core competencies with RBV. It selected purposively five Chinese leading MNPEs
and three industry associations as Case Companies.
The study revealed three main findings. First, it identified three generic core
competencies possessed by Case Companies, i.e., innovation in business models and
operations, utilisation of technologies, and acquisition of strategic resources. Second,
it developed the conceptual framework of the Mechanism of Building Core
Competencies (MBCC), which is a process of change of collective learning in
effective and efficient utilization of resources of a firm in response to critical events.
Third, it proposed three paths to build core competencies, i.e., enhancing collective
learning, selecting sustainable processes, and building resource base.
The study contributes to the knowledge of core competencies and RBV in three ways:
(1) presenting three generic core competencies of the Chinese MNPEs, (2) proposing
a new conceptual framework to explain how Chinese MNPEs build their core
competencies, (3) suggesting a solid anchor point (MBCC) to explain the links among
resources, core competencies, and SCA. The findings set benchmarks for Chinese
logistics industry and provide guidelines to build core competencies
A hybrid model using data mining and multi-criteria decision-making methods for landslide risk mapping at Golestan Province, Iran
The accurate modeling of landslide risk is essential pre-requisite for the development of reliable landslide control and mitigation strategies. However, landslide risk depends on the poorly known environmental and socio-economic factors for regional patterns of landslide occurrence probability and vulnerability, which constitute still a matter of research. Here, a hybrid model is described that couples data mining and multi-criteria decision-making methods for hazard and vulnerability mapping and presents its application to landslide risk assessment in Golestan Province, Northeastern Iran. To this end, landslide probability is mapped using three state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) algorithms—Maximum Entropy, Support Vector Machine and Genetic Algorithm for Rule Set Production—and combine the results with Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process computations of vulnerability to obtain the landslide risk map. Based on obtained results, a discussion is presented on landslide probability as a function of the main relevant human-environmental conditioning factors in Golestan Province. In particular, from the response curves of the machine learning algorithms, it can be found that the probability p of landslide occurrence decreases nearly exponentially with the distance x to the next road, fault, or river. Specifically, the results indicated that p≈exp(−λx) where the length scale λ is about 0.0797 km−1 for road, 0.108 km−1 for fault, and 0.734 km−1 0.734 km−1 for river. Furthermore, according to the results, p follows, approximately, a lognormal function of elevation, while the equation p=p0−K(θ−θ0)2 fits well the dependence of landslide modeling on the slope-angle θ, with p0≈0.64,θ0≈25.6∘and|K|≈6.6×10−4. However, the highest predicted landslide risk levels in Golestan Province are located in the south and southwest areas surrounding Gorgan City, owing to the combined effect of dense local human occupation and strongly landslide-prone environmental conditions. Obtained results provide insights for quantitative modeling of landslide risk, as well as for priority planning in landslide risk management
TOWARDS AN UNDERSTANDING OF EFFORTFUL FUNDRAISING EXPERIENCES: USING INTERPRETATIVE PHENOMENOLOGICAL ANALYSIS IN FUNDRAISING RESEARCH
Physical-activity oriented community fundraising has experienced an exponential growth in popularity over the past 15 years. The aim of this study was to explore the value of effortful fundraising experiences, from the point of view of participants, and explore the impact that these experiences have on people’s lives. This study used an IPA approach to interview 23 individuals, recognising the role of participants as proxy (nonprofessional) fundraisers for charitable organisations, and the unique organisation donor dynamic that this creates. It also bought together relevant psychological theory related to physical activity fundraising experiences (through a narrative literature review) and used primary interview data to substantiate these. Effortful fundraising experiences are examined in detail to understand their significance to participants, and how such experiences influence their connection with a charity or cause. This was done with an idiographic focus at first, before examining convergences and divergences across the sample. This study found that effortful fundraising experiences can have a profound positive impact upon community fundraisers in both the short and the long term. Additionally, it found that these experiences can be opportunities for charitable organisations to create lasting meaningful relationships with participants, and foster mutually beneficial lifetime relationships with them. Further research is needed to test specific psychological theory in this context, including self-esteem theory, self determination theory, and the martyrdom effect (among others)
A Molecular Approach to the Diagnosis, Assessment, Monitoring and Treatment of Pulmonary Non-Tuberculous Mycobacterial Disease
Introduction: Non-Tuberculous Mycobacteria (NTM) can cause disease of the lungs and sinuses, lymph nodes, joints and central nervous system as well as disseminated infections in immunocompromised individuals. Efforts to tackle infections in NTM are hampered by a lack of reliable biomarkers for diagnosis, assessment of disease activity, and prognostication.
Aims: The broad aims of this thesis are:
1. to develop molecular assays capable of quantifying the 6 most common pathogenic mycobacteria (M. abscessus, M. avium, M. intracellulare, M. malmoense, M. kansasii, M. xenopi) and calculate comparative sensitivities and specificities for each assay.
2. to assess patients’ clinical course over 12 – 18 months by performing the developed molecular assays against DNA extracted from sputum from patients with NTM infection.
3. to assess dynamic bacterial changes of the lung microbiome in patients on treatment for NTM disease and those who are treatment na ve.
Methods: DNA was extracted from a total of 410 sputum samples obtained from 38 patients who were either:
• commencing treatment for either M. abscessus or Mycobacterium avium complex.
• considered colonised with M. abscessus or Mycobacterium avium complex (i.e. cultured NTM but were not deemed to have infection as they did not meet ATS or BTS criteria for disease).
• Diagnosed with cystic fibrosis (CF) or non-CF bronchiectasis but had never cultured NTM.
For the development of quantitative molecular assays, NTM hsp65 gene sequences were aligned and interrogated for areas of variability. These variable regions enabled the creation of species specific probes. In vitro sensitivity and specificity for each probe was determined by testing each probe against a panel of plasmids containing hsp65
gene inserts from different NTM species. Quantification accuracy was determined by using each assay against a mock community containing serial dilutions of target DNA.
Each sample was tested with the probes targeting: M. abscessus, M. avium and M. intracellulare producing a longitudinal assessment of NTM copy number during each patient’s clinical course.
In addition, a total of 64 samples from 16 patients underwent 16S rRNA gene sequencing to characterise longitudinal changes in the microbiome of both NTM disease and controls.
Results: In vitro sensitivity for the custom assays were 100% and specificity ranged from 91.6% to 100%. In terms of quantification accuracy, there was no significant difference between the measured results of each assay and the expected values when performed in singleplex. The assays were able to accurately determine NTM copy number to a theoretical limit of 10 copies/μl.
When used against samples derived from human sputum and using culture results as a gold standard, the sensitivity of the assay for M. abscessus was found to be 0.87 and 0.86 for MAC. The specificity of the assay for M. abscessus was 0.95 and 0.62 for MAC. The negative predictive value of the assay for M. abscessus was 0.98 and 0.95 for MAC. This resulted in an AUC of 0.92 for M. abscessus and 0.74 for MAC.
Longitudinal analysis of the lung microbiome using 16SrRNA gene sequencing showed that bacterial burden initially decreases after initiation of antibiotic therapy but begins to return to normal levels over several months of antibiotic therapy. This effect is mirrored by changes in alpha diversity. The decrease in bacterial burden and loss of alpha diversity was found to be secondary to significant changes in specific genera such as Veillonella and Streptococcus. The abundance of other Proteobacteria such as Pseudomonas remain relatively constant.
Conclusion: The molecular assay has shown high in vitro sensitivity and specificity for the detection and accurate quantification of the 6 most commonly pathogenic NTM species. The assays successfully identified NTM DNA from human sputum samples.
A notable association between NTM copy number and the cessation of one or more antibiotics existed (i.e. when one antibiotic was stopped because of patient intolerance, NTM copy number increased, often having been unrecordable prior to this). The qPCR assays developed in this thesis provide an affordable, real time and rapid measurement of NTM burden allowing clinicians to act on problematic results sooner than currently possible.
There was no significant difference between the microbiome in bronchiectasis and cystic fibrosis nor was there a significant difference between the microbiome in patients requiring treatment for NTM and those who did not. Patients receiving treatment experienced an initial decrease in bacterial burden over the first weeks of treatment followed by a gradual increase towards baseline over the next weeks to months. This change was mirrored in measures of alpha diversity. Changes in abundance and diversity were accounted for by decreases in specific bacteria whilst the abundance of other bacteria increased, occupying the microbial niche created. These bacteria (for example Pseudomonas spp) are often associated with morbidity.Open Acces
Digital asset management via distributed ledgers
Distributed ledgers rose to prominence with the advent of Bitcoin, the first provably secure protocol to solve consensus in an open-participation setting. Following, active research and engineering efforts have proposed a multitude of applications and alternative designs, the most prominent being Proof-of-Stake (PoS). This thesis expands the scope of secure and efficient asset management over a distributed ledger around three axes: i) cryptography; ii) distributed systems; iii) game theory and economics. First, we analyze the security of various wallets. We start with a formal model of hardware wallets, followed by an analytical framework of PoS wallets, each outlining the unique properties of Proof-of-Work (PoW) and PoS respectively. The latter also provides a rigorous design to form collaborative participating entities, called stake pools. We then propose Conclave, a stake pool design which enables a group of parties to participate in a PoS system in a collaborative manner, without a central operator. Second, we focus on efficiency. Decentralized systems are aimed at thousands of users across the globe, so a rigorous design for minimizing memory and storage consumption is a prerequisite for scalability. To that end, we frame ledger maintenance as an optimization problem and design a multi-tier framework for designing wallets which ensure that updates increase the ledger’s global state only to a minimal extent, while preserving the security guarantees outlined in the security analysis. Third, we explore incentive-compatibility and analyze blockchain systems from a micro and a macroeconomic perspective. We enrich our cryptographic and systems' results by analyzing the incentives of collective pools and designing a state efficient Bitcoin fee function. We then analyze the Nash dynamics of distributed ledgers, introducing a formal model that evaluates whether rational, utility-maximizing participants are disincentivized from exhibiting undesirable infractions, and highlighting the differences between PoW and PoS-based ledgers, both in a standalone setting and under external parameters, like market price fluctuations. We conclude by introducing a macroeconomic principle, cryptocurrency egalitarianism, and then describing two mechanisms for enabling taxation in blockchain-based currency systems
Physical phenomena controlling quiescent flame spread in porous wildland fuel beds
Despite well-developed solid surface flame spread theories, we still lack a coherent theory to describe flame spread through porous wildland fuel beds. This porosity results in additional complexity, reducing the thermal conductivity of the fuel bed, but allowing in-bed radiative and convective heat transfer to occur. While previous studies have explored the effect of fuel bed structure on the overall fire behaviour, there remains a need for further investigation of the effect of fuel structure on the underlying physical phenomena controlling flame spread. Through an extensive series of laboratory-based experiments, this thesis provides detailed, physics-based insights for quiescent flame spread through natural porous beds, across a range of structural conditions.
Measurements are presented for fuel beds representative of natural field conditions within an area of the fire-prone New Jersey Pinelands National Reserve, which compliment a related series of field experiments conducted as part of a wider research project. Additional systematic investigation across a wider range of fuel conditions identified independent effects of fuel loading and bulk density on the spread rate, flame height and heat release rate. However, neither fuel loading nor bulk density alone provided adequate prediction of the resulting fire behaviour. Drawing on existing structural descriptors (for both natural and engineered fuel beds) an alternative parameter ασδ was proposed. This parameter (incorporating the fuel bed porosity (α), fuel element surface-to-volume ratio (σ), and the fuel bed height (δ)) was strongly correlated with the spread rate.
One effect of the fuel bed structure is to influence the heat transfer mechanisms both above and within the porous fuel bed. Existing descriptions of radiation transport through porous fuel beds are often predicated on the assumption of an isotropic fuel bed. However, given their preferential angle of inclination, the pine needle beds in this study may not exhibit isotropic behaviour.
Regardless, for the structural conditions investigated, horizontal heat transfer through the fuel bed was identified as the dominant heating mechanism within this quiescent flame spread scenario. However, the significance of heat transfer contributions from the above-bed flame generally increased with increasing ασδ value of the fuel bed. Using direct measurements of the heat flux magnitude and effective heating distance, close agreement was observed between experimentally observed spread rates and a simple thermal model considering only radiative heat transfer through the fuel bed, particularly at lower values of ασδ. Over-predictions occurred at higher ασδ values, or where other heat transfer terms were incorporated, which may highlight the need to include additional heat loss terms.
A significant effect of fuel structure on the primary flow regimes, both within and above these porous fuel beds, was also observed, with important implications for the heat transfer and oxygen supply within the fuel bed. Independent effects of fuel loading and bulk density on both the buoyant and buoyancy-driven entrainment flow were observed, with a complex feedback cycle occurring between Heat Release Rate (HRR) and combustion behaviour. Generally, increases in fuel loading resulted in increased HRR, and therefore increased buoyant flow velocity, along with an increase in the velocity of flow entrained towards the combustion region.
The complex effects of fuel structure in both the flaming and smouldering combustion phases may necessitate modifications to other common modelling approaches. The widely used Rothermel model under-predicted spread rate for higher bulk density and lower ασδ fuel beds. As previously suggested, an over-sensitivity to fuel bed height was observed, with experimental comparison indicating an under-prediction of reaction intensity at lower fuel heights. These findings have important implications particularly given the continuing widespread use of the Rothermel model, which continues to underpin elements of the BehavePlus fire modelling system and the US National Fire Danger Rating System.
The physical insights, and modelling approaches, developed for this low-intensity, quiescent flame spread scenario, are applicable to common prescribed fire activities. It is hoped that this work (alongside complimentary laboratory and field experiments conducted by various authors as part of a wider multi-agency project (SERDP-RC2641)) will contribute to the emerging field of prescribed fire science, and help to address the pressing need for further development of fire prediction and modelling tools
The Role of English and Welsh INGOs: A Field Theory-Based Exploration of the Sector
This thesis takes a field theory-based approach to exploring the role of English and Welsh international non-governmental organisations (INGOs), using the lens of income source form.
First, the thesis presents new income source data drawn from 933 Annual Accounts published by 316 INGOs over three years (2015-2018). The research then draws on qualitative data from 90 Leaders' letters include within the Annual Reports published by 39 INGOS, as well as supplementary quantitative and qualitative data, to explore the ways in which INGOs represent their role.
Analysis of this income source data demonstrates that government funding is less important to most INGOs than has previously been assumed, while income from individuals is more important than has been recognised in the extant development studies literature. Funding from other organisations within the voluntary sector is the third most important source of income for these INGOs, while income from fees and trading is substantially less important than the other income source forms.
Using this income source data in concert with other quantitative data on INGO characteristics as well as qualitative data drawn from the Leaders' letters, I then show that the English and Welsh INGO sector is a heterogenous space, divided into multiple fields. The set of fields identified by this thesis is arranged primarily around income source form, which is also associated with size, religious affiliation, and activities of focus and ways of working. As Bourdieusian field theory suggests, within these fields individual INGOs are engaged in an ongoing struggle for position: competing to demonstrate their maximal possession of the symbolic capitals they perceive to be valued by (potential) donors to that field.
Further analysis of these Leaders' letters, alongside additional Annual Reports and Accounts data, also reveals a dissonance in the way in which INGOs describe their relationship with local partners in these different communication types. While these Leaders' letters and narrative reports tell stories of collaborative associations with locally-based partners, this obscures the nature of these relationships as competitive and hierarchical.
The thesis draws on the above findings to reflect on the role of INGOs as suggested in the extant literature. This discussion highlights how the various potential INGO fields identified are associated with differing theoretical roles for INGOs. Finally, the thesis considers how INGO role representations continue to contribute to unequal power relations between INGOs and their partners
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