An agent-based fuzzy cognitive map approach to the strategic marketing planning for industrial firms

This is the post-print version of the final paper published in Industrial Marketing Management. The published article is available from the link below. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. Copyright @ 2013 Elsevier B.V.Industrial marketing planning is a typical example of an unstructured decision making problem due to the large number of variables to consider and the uncertainty imposed on those variables. Although abundant studies identified barriers and facilitators of effective industrial marketing planning in practice, the literature still lacks practical tools and methods that marketing managers can use for the task. This paper applies fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) to industrial marketing planning. In particular, agent based inference method is proposed to overcome dynamic relationships, time lags, and reusability issues of FCM evaluation. MACOM simulator also is developed to help marketing managers conduct what-if scenarios to see the impacts of possible changes on the variables defined in an FCM that represents industrial marketing planning problem. The simulator is applied to an industrial marketing planning problem for a global software service company in South Korea. This study has practical implication as it supports marketing managers for industrial marketing planning that has large number of variables and their cause–effect relationships. It also contributes to FCM theory by providing an agent based method for the inference of FCM. Finally, MACOM also provides academics in the industrial marketing management discipline with a tool for developing and pre-verifying a conceptual model based on qualitative knowledge of marketing practitioners.Ministry of Education, Science and Technology (Korea

Multi-agent knowledge integration mechanism using particle swarm optimization

This is the post-print version of the final paper published in Technological Forecasting and Social Change. The published article is available from the link below. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. Copyright @ 2011 Elsevier B.V.Unstructured group decision-making is burdened with several central difficulties: unifying the knowledge of multiple experts in an unbiased manner and computational inefficiencies. In addition, a proper means of storing such unified knowledge for later use has not yet been established. Storage difficulties stem from of the integration of the logic underlying multiple experts' decision-making processes and the structured quantification of the impact of each opinion on the final product. To address these difficulties, this paper proposes a novel approach called the multiple agent-based knowledge integration mechanism (MAKIM), in which a fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) is used as a knowledge representation and storage vehicle. In this approach, we use particle swarm optimization (PSO) to adjust causal relationships and causality coefficients from the perspective of global optimization. Once an optimized FCM is constructed an agent based model (ABM) is applied to the inference of the FCM to solve real world problem. The final aggregate knowledge is stored in FCM form and is used to produce proper inference results for other target problems. To test the validity of our approach, we applied MAKIM to a real-world group decision-making problem, an IT project risk assessment, and found MAKIM to be statistically robust.Ministry of Education, Science and Technology (Korea

Agent based mobile negotiation for personalized pricing of last minute theatre tickets

This is the post-print version of the final paper published in Expert Systems with Applications. The published article is available from the link below. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. Copyright @ 2012 Elsevier B.V.This paper proposes an agent based mobile negotiation framework for personalized pricing of last minutes theatre tickets whose values are dependent on the time remaining to the performance and the locations of potential customers. In particular, case based reasoning and fuzzy cognitive map techniques are adopted in the negotiation framework to identify the best initial offer zone and adopt multi criteria decision in the scoring function to evaluate offers. The proposed framework is tested via a computer simulation in which personalized pricing policy shows higher market performance than other policies therefore the validity of the proposed negotiation framework.The Ministry of Education, Science and Technology (Korea

Mapping knowledge management and organizational learning in support of organizational memory

The normative literature within the field of Knowledge Management has concentrated on techniques and methodologies for allowing knowledge to be codified and made available to individuals and groups within organizations. The literature on Organizational Learning however, has tended to focus on aspects of knowledge that are pertinent at the macro-organizational level (i.e. the overall business). The authors attempt in this paper to address a relative void in the literature, aiming to demonstrate the inter-locking factors within an enterprise information system that relate knowledge management and organizational learning, via a model that highlights key factors within such an inter-relationship. This is achieved by extrapolating data from a manufacturing organization using a case study, with these data then modeled using a cognitive mapping technique (Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping, FCM). The empirical enquiry explores an interpretivist view of knowledge, within an Information Systems Evaluation (ISE) process, through the associated classification of structural, interpretive and evaluative knowledge. This is achieved by visualizng inter-relationships within the ISE decision-making approach in the case organization. A number of decision paths within the cognitive map are then identified such that a greater understanding of ISE can be sought. The authors therefore present a model that defines a relationship between Knowledge Management (KM) and Organisational Learning (OL), and highlights factors that can lead a firm to develop itself towards a learning organization

Knowledge dependencies in fuzzy information systems evaluation

Experience and research within the field of Information Systems Evaluation (ISE), has traditionally centered on providing tools and techniques for investment justification and appraisal, based upon explicit knowledge which encodes financial and other direct situational factors (such as accounting, costing and risk metrics). However, such approaches tend not to include additional causal interdependencies that are based upon tacit knowledge and are inherent within such a decision-making task. The authors show the results of applying a cognitive mapping approach, in the guise of a Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) simulation, i.e. Fuzzy Information Systems Evaluation (F-ISE), in order to highlight the usefulness of applying such a technique. The authors highlight those contingent and necessary knowledge dependencies, in an exploratory sense, which relate to the investment appraisal decision-making task, in terms of the interplay between tacit and explicit knowledge, in this regard

A Cognitive Model of an Epistemic Community: Mapping the Dynamics of Shallow Lake Ecosystems

We used fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) to develop a generic shallow lake ecosystem model by augmenting the individual cognitive maps drawn by 8 scientists working in the area of shallow lake ecology. We calculated graph theoretical indices of the individual cognitive maps and the collective cognitive map produced by augmentation. The graph theoretical indices revealed internal cycles showing non-linear dynamics in the shallow lake ecosystem. The ecological processes were organized democratically without a top-down hierarchical structure. The steady state condition of the generic model was a characteristic turbid shallow lake ecosystem since there were no dynamic environmental changes that could cause shifts between a turbid and a clearwater state, and the generic model indicated that only a dynamic disturbance regime could maintain the clearwater state. The model developed herein captured the empirical behavior of shallow lakes, and contained the basic model of the Alternative Stable States Theory. In addition, our model expanded the basic model by quantifying the relative effects of connections and by extending it. In our expanded model we ran 4 simulations: harvesting submerged plants, nutrient reduction, fish removal without nutrient reduction, and biomanipulation. Only biomanipulation, which included fish removal and nutrient reduction, had the potential to shift the turbid state into clearwater state. The structure and relationships in the generic model as well as the outcomes of the management simulations were supported by actual field studies in shallow lake ecosystems. Thus, fuzzy cognitive mapping methodology enabled us to understand the complex structure of shallow lake ecosystems as a whole and obtain a valid generic model based on tacit knowledge of experts in the field.Comment: 24 pages, 5 Figure

Exploring the relationship between knowledge management and organizational learning via fuzzy cognitive mapping

The normative literature within the field of Knowledge Management has tended to concentrate on techniques and methodologies for codifying knowledge. Similarly, the literature on organizational learning, focuses on aspects of those knowledge that are pertinent at the macro-organizational level (i.e. the overall business). There remains little published literature on how knowledge management and organizational learning are interrelated within business scenarios. In addressing this relative void, the authors of this paper present a model that highlights the factors for such an inter-relationship, which are extrapolated from a manufacturing organisation using a qualitative case study research strategy, supplanted by a cognitive mapping technique: Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM). The paper looks at the Information Systems Evaluation (ISE) process within a manufacturing organisation, the authors subsequently presenting a model that not only defines a relationship between KM and OL, but highlights factors that could lead a firm to develop itself towards a learning organisation

Motion modelling using concepts of fuzzy artificial potential fields

Artificial potential fields (APF) are well established for reactive navigation of mobile robots. This paper describes a fast and robust fuzzy-APF on an ActivMedia AmigoBot.Obstacle-related information is fuzzified by using sensory fusion, which results in a shorter runtime. In addition, the membership functions of obstacle direction and range have been merged into one function, obtaining a smaller block of rules. The system is tested in virtual environments with non-concave obstacles. Then, the paper describes a new approach to motion modelling where the motion of intelligent travellers is modelled by consecutive path segments. In previous work, the authors described a reliable motion modelling technique using causal inference of fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) which has been efficiently modified for the purpose of this contribution. Results and analysis are given to demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed motion modelling algorithm