Online disturbance prediction for enhanced availability in smart grids

A gradual move in the electric power industry towards Smart Grids brings new challenges to the system's efficiency and dependability. With a growing complexity and massive introduction of renewable generation, particularly at the distribution level, the number of faults and, consequently, disturbances (errors and failures) is expected to increase significantly. This threatens to compromise grid's availability as traditional, reactive management approaches may soon become insufficient. On the other hand, with grids' digitalization, real-time status data are becoming available. These data may be used to develop advanced management and control methods for a sustainable, more efficient and more dependable grid. A proactive management approach, based on the use of real-time data for predicting near-future disturbances and acting in their anticipation, has already been identified by the Smart Grid community as one of the main pillars of dependability of the future grid. The work presented in this dissertation focuses on predicting disturbances in Active Distributions Networks (ADNs) that are a part of the Smart Grid that evolves the most. These are distribution networks with high share of (renewable) distributed generation and with systems in place for real-time monitoring and control. Our main goal is to develop a methodology for proactive network management, in a sense of proactive mitigation of disturbances, and to design and implement a method for their prediction. We focus on predicting voltage sags as they are identified as one of the most frequent and severe disturbances in distribution networks. We address Smart Grid dependability in a holistic manner by considering its cyber and physical aspects. As a result, we identify Smart Grid dependability properties and develop a taxonomy of faults that contribute to better understanding of the overall dependability of the future grid. As the process of grid's digitization is still ongoing there is a general problem of a lack of data on the grid's status and especially disturbance-related data. These data are necessary to design an accurate disturbance predictor. To overcome this obstacle we introduce a concept of fault injection to simulation of power systems. We develop a framework to simulate a behavior of distribution networks in the presence of faults, and fluctuating generation and load that, alone or combined, may cause disturbances. With the framework we generate a large set of data that we use to develop and evaluate a voltage-sag disturbance predictor. To quantify how prediction and proactive mitigation of disturbances enhance availability we create an availability model of a proactive management. The model is generic and may be applied to evaluate the effect of proactive management on availability in other types of systems, and adapted for quantifying other types of properties as well. Also, we design a metric and a method for optimizing failure prediction to maximize availability with proactive approach. In our conclusion, the level of availability improvement with proactive approach is comparable to the one when using high-reliability and costly components. Following the results of the case study conducted for a 14-bus ADN, grid's availability may be improved by up to an order of magnitude if disturbances are managed proactively instead of reactively. The main results and contributions may be summarized as follows: (i) Taxonomy of faults in Smart Grid has been developed; (ii) Methodology and methods for proactive management of disturbances have been proposed; (iii) Model to quantify availability with proactive management has been developed; (iv) Simulation and fault-injection framework has been designed and implemented to generate disturbance-related data; (v) In the scope of a case study, a voltage-sag predictor, based on machine- learning classification algorithms, has been designed and the effect of proactive disturbance management on downtime and availability has been quantified

A predictive fault-tolerance framework for IoT systems

As Internet of Things (IoT) systems scale, attributes such as availability, reliability, safety, maintainability, security, and performance become increasingly more important. A key challenge to realise IoT is how to provide a dependable infrastructure for the billions of expected IoT devices. A dependable IoT system is one that can defensibly be trusted to deliver its intended service within a given time period. To define a FT-support solution that is applicable to all IoT systems, it is important that error definition is a generic, language-agnostic process, so that FT can be applied as a software pattern. It must also be interoperable, so that FT support can be easily 'plugged into' any existing IoT system, which is facilitated by an adherence to standards and protocols. Lastly, it is important that FT support is, itself, fault tolerant, so that it can be depended on to provide correct support for IoT systems. The work in this thesis considers how real-time and historical data analysis techniques can be combined to monitor an IoT environment and analyse its short- and long-term data to make the system as resilient to failure as possible. Specifically, complex event processing (CEP) is proposed for real-time error detection based on the analysis of stream data in an IoT system, where errors are defined as nondeterministic finite automata (NFA). For long-term error analysis, machine learning (ML) is proposed to predict when an error is likely to occur and mitigate imminent system faults based on previous experience of erroneous system behaviour in the IoT system. The contribution is threefold: (1) a language-agnostic approach to error definition using NFAs, designed to provide 'FT as a service' for easy deployment and integration into existing IoT systems; (2) an implementation of NFAs on a bespoke CEP system, BoboCEP, that provides distributed, resilient event processing at the network edge via active replication; and (3) a ML approach to intelligent FT that can learn from system errors over time to ensure correct long-term FT support. The proposed solution was evaluated using two vertical-farming testbeds and a dataset from a real-world vertical farm. Results showed that the proposed solution could detect and predict the successful detection and recovery of erroneous system behaviours. A performance analysis of BoboCEP was conducted with favourable results

A Survey and Taxonomy of Self-Aware and Self-Adaptive Cloud Autoscaling Systems

Autoscaling system can reconfigure cloud-based services and applications, through various configurations of cloud software and provisions of hardware resources, to adapt to the changing environment at runtime. Such a behavior offers the foundation for achieving elasticity in a modern cloud computing paradigm. Given the dynamic and uncertain nature of the shared cloud infrastructure, the cloud autoscaling system has been engineered as one of the most complex, sophisticated, and intelligent artifacts created by humans, aiming to achieve self-aware, self-adaptive, and dependable runtime scaling. Yet the existing Self-aware and Self-adaptive Cloud Autoscaling System (SSCAS) is not at a state where it can be reliably exploited in the cloud. In this article, we survey the state-of-the-art research studies on SSCAS and provide a comprehensive taxonomy for this field. We present detailed analysis of the results and provide insights on open challenges, as well as the promising directions that are worth investigated in the future work of this area of research. Our survey and taxonomy contribute to the fundamentals of engineering more intelligent autoscaling systems in the cloud

Modern computing: vision and challenges

Over the past six decades, the computing systems field has experienced significant transformations, profoundly impacting society with transformational developments, such as the Internet and the commodification of computing. Underpinned by technological advancements, computer systems, far from being static, have been continuously evolving and adapting to cover multifaceted societal niches. This has led to new paradigms such as cloud, fog, edge computing, and the Internet of Things (IoT), which offer fresh economic and creative opportunities. Nevertheless, this rapid change poses complex research challenges, especially in maximizing potential and enhancing functionality. As such, to maintain an economical level of performance that meets ever-tighter requirements, one must understand the drivers of new model emergence and expansion, and how contemporary challenges differ from past ones. To that end, this article investigates and assesses the factors influencing the evolution of computing systems, covering established systems and architectures as well as newer developments, such as serverless computing, quantum computing, and on-device AI on edge devices. Trends emerge when one traces technological trajectory, which includes the rapid obsolescence of frameworks due to business and technical constraints, a move towards specialized systems and models, and varying approaches to centralized and decentralized control. This comprehensive review of modern computing systems looks ahead to the future of research in the field, highlighting key challenges and emerging trends, and underscoring their importance in cost-effectively driving technological progress

Modern computing: Vision and challenges

Over the past six decades, the computing systems field has experienced significant transformations, profoundly impacting society with transformational developments, such as the Internet and the commodification of computing. Underpinned by technological advancements, computer systems, far from being static, have been continuously evolving and adapting to cover multifaceted societal niches. This has led to new paradigms such as cloud, fog, edge computing, and the Internet of Things (IoT), which offer fresh economic and creative opportunities. Nevertheless, this rapid change poses complex research challenges, especially in maximizing potential and enhancing functionality. As such, to maintain an economical level of performance that meets ever-tighter requirements, one must understand the drivers of new model emergence and expansion, and how contemporary challenges differ from past ones. To that end, this article investigates and assesses the factors influencing the evolution of computing systems, covering established systems and architectures as well as newer developments, such as serverless computing, quantum computing, and on-device AI on edge devices. Trends emerge when one traces technological trajectory, which includes the rapid obsolescence of frameworks due to business and technical constraints, a move towards specialized systems and models, and varying approaches to centralized and decentralized control. This comprehensive review of modern computing systems looks ahead to the future of research in the field, highlighting key challenges and emerging trends, and underscoring their importance in cost-effectively driving technological progress

Energy-Sustainable IoT Connectivity: Vision, Technological Enablers, Challenges, and Future Directions

Technology solutions must effectively balance economic growth, social equity, and environmental integrity to achieve a sustainable society. Notably, although the Internet of Things (IoT) paradigm constitutes a key sustainability enabler, critical issues such as the increasing maintenance operations, energy consumption, and manufacturing/disposal of IoT devices have long-term negative economic, societal, and environmental impacts and must be efficiently addressed. This calls for self-sustainable IoT ecosystems requiring minimal external resources and intervention, effectively utilizing renewable energy sources, and recycling materials whenever possible, thus encompassing energy sustainability. In this work, we focus on energy-sustainable IoT during the operation phase, although our discussions sometimes extend to other sustainability aspects and IoT lifecycle phases. Specifically, we provide a fresh look at energy-sustainable IoT and identify energy provision, transfer, and energy efficiency as the three main energy-related processes whose harmonious coexistence pushes toward realizing self-sustainable IoT systems. Their main related technologies, recent advances, challenges, and research directions are also discussed. Moreover, we overview relevant performance metrics to assess the energy-sustainability potential of a certain technique, technology, device, or network and list some target values for the next generation of wireless systems. Overall, this paper offers insights that are valuable for advancing sustainability goals for present and future generations.Comment: 25 figures, 12 tables, submitted to IEEE Open Journal of the Communications Societ