Spatio-temporal prediction of wind fields

Short-term wind and wind power forecasts are required for the reliable and economic operation of power systems with significant wind power penetration. This thesis presents new statistical techniques for producing forecasts at multiple locations using spatiotemporal information. Forecast horizons of up to 6 hours are considered for which statistical methods outperform physical models in general. Several methods for producing hourly wind speed and direction forecasts from 1 to 6 hours ahead are presented in addition to a method for producing five-minute-ahead probabilistic wind power forecasts. The former have applications in areas such as energy trading and defining reserve requirements, and the latter in power system balancing and wind farm control. Spatio-temporal information is captured by vector autoregressive (VAR) models that incorporate wind direction by modelling the wind time series using complex numbers. In a further development, the VAR coefficients are replaced with coefficient functions in order to capture the dependence of the predictor on external variables, such as the time of year or wind direction. The complex-valued approach is found to produce accurate speed predictions, and the conditional predictors offer improved performance with little additional computational cost. Two non-linear algorithms have been developed for wind forecasting. In the first, the predictor is derived from an ensemble of particle swarm optimised candidate solutions. This approach is low cost and requires very little training data but fails to capitalise on spatial information. The second approach uses kernelised forms of popular linear algorithms which are shown to produce more accurate forecasts than their linear equivalents for multi-step-ahead prediction. Finally, very-short-term wind power forecasting is considered. Five-minute-ahead parametric probabilistic forecasts are produced by modelling the predictive distribution as logit-normal and forecasting its parameters using a sparse-VAR (sVAR) approach. Development of the sVAR is motivated by the desire to produce forecasts on a large spatial scale, i.e. hundreds of locations, which is critical during periods of high instantaneous wind penetration.Short-term wind and wind power forecasts are required for the reliable and economic operation of power systems with significant wind power penetration. This thesis presents new statistical techniques for producing forecasts at multiple locations using spatiotemporal information. Forecast horizons of up to 6 hours are considered for which statistical methods outperform physical models in general. Several methods for producing hourly wind speed and direction forecasts from 1 to 6 hours ahead are presented in addition to a method for producing five-minute-ahead probabilistic wind power forecasts. The former have applications in areas such as energy trading and defining reserve requirements, and the latter in power system balancing and wind farm control. Spatio-temporal information is captured by vector autoregressive (VAR) models that incorporate wind direction by modelling the wind time series using complex numbers. In a further development, the VAR coefficients are replaced with coefficient functions in order to capture the dependence of the predictor on external variables, such as the time of year or wind direction. The complex-valued approach is found to produce accurate speed predictions, and the conditional predictors offer improved performance with little additional computational cost. Two non-linear algorithms have been developed for wind forecasting. In the first, the predictor is derived from an ensemble of particle swarm optimised candidate solutions. This approach is low cost and requires very little training data but fails to capitalise on spatial information. The second approach uses kernelised forms of popular linear algorithms which are shown to produce more accurate forecasts than their linear equivalents for multi-step-ahead prediction. Finally, very-short-term wind power forecasting is considered. Five-minute-ahead parametric probabilistic forecasts are produced by modelling the predictive distribution as logit-normal and forecasting its parameters using a sparse-VAR (sVAR) approach. Development of the sVAR is motivated by the desire to produce forecasts on a large spatial scale, i.e. hundreds of locations, which is critical during periods of high instantaneous wind penetration

Statistical modelling of algorithms for signal processing in systems based on environment perception

One cornerstone for realising automated driving systems is an appropriate handling of uncertainties in the environment perception and situation interpretation. Uncertainties arise due to noisy sensor measurements or the unknown future evolution of a traffic situation. This work contributes to the understanding of these uncertainties by modelling and propagating them with parametric probability distributions

Non-linear Kalman filters comparison for generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic clutter parameter estimation

In this work, the authors analyse the estimation of the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) process conditional variance based on three non-linear filtering approaches: extended Kalman filter (EKF), unscented Kalman filter and cubature Kalman filter. The authors present a state model for a GARCH process and derive an EKF including second-order non-linear terms for simultaneous estimation of state and parameters. Using synthetic data, the authors evaluate the consistency and the correlation of the innovations for the three filters, by means of numerical simulations. The authors also study the performance of smoothed versions of the non-linear Kalman filters using real clutter data in comparison with a conventional quasi-maximum likelihood estimation method for the GARCH process coefficients. The authors show that with all methods the process coefficients estimates are of the same order and the resulting conditional variances are commensurable. However, the non-linear Kalman filters greatly reduce the computational load. These kind of filters could be used for the radar detector based on a GARCH clutter model that uses an adaptive threshold that demands the conditional variance at each decision instant.Facultad de IngenieríaInstituto de Investigaciones en Electrónica, Control y Procesamiento de Señale

Non-linear Kalman filters comparison for generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic clutter parameter estimation

In this work, the authors analyse the estimation of the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) process conditional variance based on three non-linear filtering approaches: extended Kalman filter (EKF), unscented Kalman filter and cubature Kalman filter. The authors present a state model for a GARCH process and derive an EKF including second-order non-linear terms for simultaneous estimation of state and parameters. Using synthetic data, the authors evaluate the consistency and the correlation of the innovations for the three filters, by means of numerical simulations. The authors also study the performance of smoothed versions of the non-linear Kalman filters using real clutter data in comparison with a conventional quasi-maximum likelihood estimation method for the GARCH process coefficients. The authors show that with all methods the process coefficients estimates are of the same order and the resulting conditional variances are commensurable. However, the non-linear Kalman filters greatly reduce the computational load. These kind of filters could be used for the radar detector based on a GARCH clutter model that uses an adaptive threshold that demands the conditional variance at each decision instant.Fil: Pascual, Juan Pablo. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; ArgentinaFil: Von Ellenrieder, Nicolás. McGill University; CanadáFil: Areta, Javier Alberto. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Río Negro; ArgentinaFil: Muravchik, Carlos Horacio. Provincia de Buenos Aires. Gobernación. Comisión de Investigaciones Científicas; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones en Electrónica, Control y Procesamiento de Señales. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones en Electrónica, Control y Procesamiento de Señales; Argentin

Machine learning for automatic analysis of affective behaviour

The automated analysis of affect has been gaining rapidly increasing attention by researchers over the past two decades, as it constitutes a fundamental step towards achieving next-generation computing technologies and integrating them into everyday life (e.g. via affect-aware, user-adaptive interfaces, medical imaging, health assessment, ambient intelligence etc.). The work presented in this thesis focuses on several fundamental problems manifesting in the course towards the achievement of reliable, accurate and robust affect sensing systems. In more detail, the motivation behind this work lies in recent developments in the field, namely (i) the creation of large, audiovisual databases for affect analysis in the so-called ''Big-Data`` era, along with (ii) the need to deploy systems under demanding, real-world conditions. These developments led to the requirement for the analysis of emotion expressions continuously in time, instead of merely processing static images, thus unveiling the wide range of temporal dynamics related to human behaviour to researchers. The latter entails another deviation from the traditional line of research in the field: instead of focusing on predicting posed, discrete basic emotions (happiness, surprise etc.), it became necessary to focus on spontaneous, naturalistic expressions captured under settings more proximal to real-world conditions, utilising more expressive emotion descriptions than a set of discrete labels. To this end, the main motivation of this thesis is to deal with challenges arising from the adoption of continuous dimensional emotion descriptions under naturalistic scenarios, considered to capture a much wider spectrum of expressive variability than basic emotions, and most importantly model emotional states which are commonly expressed by humans in their everyday life. In the first part of this thesis, we attempt to demystify the quite unexplored problem of predicting continuous emotional dimensions. This work is amongst the first to explore the problem of predicting emotion dimensions via multi-modal fusion, utilising facial expressions, auditory cues and shoulder gestures. A major contribution of the work presented in this thesis lies in proposing the utilisation of various relationships exhibited by emotion dimensions in order to improve the prediction accuracy of machine learning methods - an idea which has been taken on by other researchers in the field since. In order to experimentally evaluate this, we extend methods such as the Long Short-Term Memory Neural Networks (LSTM), the Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) and Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) in order to exploit output relationships in learning. As it is shown, this increases the accuracy of machine learning models applied to this task. The annotation of continuous dimensional emotions is a tedious task, highly prone to the influence of various types of noise. Performed real-time by several annotators (usually experts), the annotation process can be heavily biased by factors such as subjective interpretations of the emotional states observed, the inherent ambiguity of labels related to human behaviour, the varying reaction lags exhibited by each annotator as well as other factors such as input device noise and annotation errors. In effect, the annotations manifest a strong spatio-temporal annotator-specific bias. Failing to properly deal with annotation bias and noise leads to an inaccurate ground truth, and therefore to ill-generalisable machine learning models. This deems the proper fusion of multiple annotations, and the inference of a clean, corrected version of the ``ground truth'' as one of the most significant challenges in the area. A highly important contribution of this thesis lies in the introduction of Dynamic Probabilistic Canonical Correlation Analysis (DPCCA), a method aimed at fusing noisy continuous annotations. By adopting a private-shared space model, we isolate the individual characteristics that are annotator-specific and not shared, while most importantly we model the common, underlying annotation which is shared by annotators (i.e., the derived ground truth). By further learning temporal dynamics and incorporating a time-warping process, we are able to derive a clean version of the ground truth given multiple annotations, eliminating temporal discrepancies and other nuisances. The integration of the temporal alignment process within the proposed private-shared space model deems DPCCA suitable for the problem of temporally aligning human behaviour; that is, given temporally unsynchronised sequences (e.g., videos of two persons smiling), the goal is to generate the temporally synchronised sequences (e.g., the smile apex should co-occur in the videos). Temporal alignment is an important problem for many applications where multiple datasets need to be aligned in time. Furthermore, it is particularly suitable for the analysis of facial expressions, where the activation of facial muscles (Action Units) typically follows a set of predefined temporal phases. A highly challenging scenario is when the observations are perturbed by gross, non-Gaussian noise (e.g., occlusions), as is often the case when analysing data acquired under real-world conditions. To account for non-Gaussian noise, a robust variant of Canonical Correlation Analysis (RCCA) for robust fusion and temporal alignment is proposed. The model captures the shared, low-rank subspace of the observations, isolating the gross noise in a sparse noise term. RCCA is amongst the first robust variants of CCA proposed in literature, and as we show in related experiments outperforms other, state-of-the-art methods for related tasks such as the fusion of multiple modalities under gross noise. Beyond private-shared space models, Component Analysis (CA) is an integral component of most computer vision systems, particularly in terms of reducing the usually high-dimensional input spaces in a meaningful manner pertaining to the task-at-hand (e.g., prediction, clustering). A final, significant contribution of this thesis lies in proposing the first unifying framework for probabilistic component analysis. The proposed framework covers most well-known CA methods, such as Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), Locality Preserving Projections (LPP) and Slow Feature Analysis (SFA), providing further theoretical insights into the workings of CA. Moreover, the proposed framework is highly flexible, enabling novel CA methods to be generated by simply manipulating the connectivity of latent variables (i.e. the latent neighbourhood). As shown experimentally, methods derived via the proposed framework outperform other equivalents in several problems related to affect sensing and facial expression analysis, while providing advantages such as reduced complexity and explicit variance modelling.Open Acces

Safety and Reliability - Safe Societies in a Changing World

The contributions cover a wide range of methodologies and application areas for safety and reliability that contribute to safe societies in a changing world. These methodologies and applications include: - foundations of risk and reliability assessment and management - mathematical methods in reliability and safety - risk assessment - risk management - system reliability - uncertainty analysis - digitalization and big data - prognostics and system health management - occupational safety - accident and incident modeling - maintenance modeling and applications - simulation for safety and reliability analysis - dynamic risk and barrier management - organizational factors and safety culture - human factors and human reliability - resilience engineering - structural reliability - natural hazards - security - economic analysis in risk managemen

Malaysian bilateral trade relations and economic growth

This paper examines the structure and trends of Malaysian bilateral exports and imports and then investigates whether these bilateral exports and imports have caused Malaysian economic growth. Although the structure of Malaysia’s trade has changed quite significantly over the last three decades, the direction of Malaysia’s trade remains generally the same. Broadly, ASEAN, the EU, East Asia, the US and Japan continue to be the Malaysia’s major trading partners. The Granger causality tests have shown that it is the bilateral imports that have caused economic growth in Malaysia rather than the bilateral exports

Exchange rate misalignments in ASEAN-5 countries

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the exchange rate misalignments for Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand before the currency crisis. By employing the sticky-price monetary exchange rate model in the environment of vector error-correction, the results indicate that the Indonesia rupiah, Malaysian ringgit, Philippines peso and Singapore dollar were overvalued before the currency crisis while Thai baht was undervalued on the eve of the crisis. However, they suffered modest misalignment. Therefore, little evidence of exchange misalignment is found to exist in 1997:2. In particular, Indonesia rupiah, Malaysia ringgit, Philippines peso and Singapore dollar were only overvalued about 1 to 4 percent against US dollar while the Thai baht was only 2 percent undervalued against US dollar