Social Multi-Criteria Evaluation (SMCE)

The main argument developed here is the proposal of the concept of “Social Multi-Criteria Evaluation” (SMCE) as a possible useful framework for the application of social choice to the difficult policy problems of our Millennium, where, as stated by Funtowicz and Ravetz, “facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent”. This paper starts from the following main questions: 1. Why “Social” Multi-criteria Evaluation? 2. How such an approach should be developed? The foundations of SMCE are set up by referring to concepts coming from complex system theory and philosophy, such as reflexive complexity, post-normal science and incommensurability. To give some operational guidelines on the application of SMCE basic questions to be answered are: 1. How is it possible to deal with technical incommensurability? 2. How can we deal with the issue of social incommensurability? To answer these questions, by using theoretical considerations and lessons learned from realworld case studies, is the main objective of the present article.Multi-Criteria Analysis, Economics, Complexity Theory, Environment, Social Choice, Post-Normal Science, Incommensurability, Ethics

E-Democracy and Knowledge. A Multicriteria Framework for the New Democratic Era

This paper analyses a new framework for decision-making in e-democracies that exploits the power of Internet based public knowledge, which is called briefly e-cognocracy. This is not a procedure to improve technical aspects using the Internet (e.g. e-voting); it is rather a procedure to add a new quality to the democratic system by using the network. This proposed system of e-cognocracy would allow those who are interested to solve highly complex problems by participatory decision-making. Furthermore, we suggest the multicriteria framework for the modelling and resolution of such complex problems. Similarly, using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) approach, we propose decisional (analytic and informatic) tools for searching the knowledge - relevant for the decision-making process. This knowledge of patterns of behaviour, trends, opportunities, decisions and stylised facts will be the starting point of a consensus-reaching process, which is aimed to effectively solve problems of high complexity of the Internet society.E-democracy, Knowledge society, E-cognocracy, Multicriteria, AHP criterion, Consensus

Validación, robustez y estabilidad en decisión multicriterio: análisis de sensibilidad en el proceso analítico jerárquico

El trabajo aborda el estudio de uno de los tópicos que más interés están despertando durante los últimos tiempos en el campo de la decisión multicriterio: el Análisis del Comportamiento. A continuación, conforme a los tres niveles considerados habitualmente en planificación (estratégico, táctico y operativo), se plantea efectuar este análisis en tres ámbitos: Validez de la Aproximación, Robustez del Modelo y Estabilidad de la Solución. Cada uno de estos ámbitos evaluará, respectivamente, la efectividad, eficacia y eficiencia del proceso de decisión seguido. Tras una breve descripción de algunos de los matices que los distinguen, se presentan los intervalos de estabilidad y se obtienen los. intervalos de estabilidad globales de un juicio en dos ámbitos (problemas tipo a: y y). Esta herramienta, utilizada en el análisis de sensibilidad (estabilidad) de las ordenaciones obtenidas con el Proceso Analítico Jerárquico (AHP), será empleada, bajo el paradigma de la racionalidad procedimental multicriterio, en la detección de los hechos diferenciados y pautas de comportamiento, y en la fijación de caminos de consenso entre los actores implicados en el proceso de toma de decisiones

Intentional bounded rationality methodology to assess the quality of decision-making approaches with latent alternative performances

Expert’s judgments have been crucial in the development of decision theory; however, what criterion to use in the selection of experts remains an issue to address. Decision support techniques proposed to improve the quality of expert judgment decision making consider a demonstrated inconsistency of the judgments expressed by an expert as a criterion of exclusion in the decision-making process of such expert. Although consistency appears to be a desirable condition to qualify as “expert”, little is known about the quality of the decisions made imposing consistency as the expert qualifying condition. This paper proposes a simulation methodology, based on an automaton programmed to make decisions in an intended but bounded rational way, to assess the cost-benefit of different aspects of decision support techniques. Within this methodology, the imposition of the consistency condition in the selection of experts is studied. In particular, the paper shows with a case study example that the Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) decision support technique expected payoff is at most 5% higher when implementing Saaty’s consistency criterion of the expert’s judgments than when the consistency criterion is not considered.Spanish Government ECO2017-86305-C4-3-RGobierno de AragonEuropean Social Fund (ESF)Spanish Government PID2019-103880RB-I00/AEI/10.13039/50110001103

E-Democracy and Knowledge: A Multicriteria Framework for the New Democratic Era

Abstract: This paper analyses a new framework for decision-making in e-democracies that exploits the power of Internet based public knowledge, which is called briefly e-cognocracy. This is not a procedure to improve technical aspects using the Internet (e.g. e-voting); it is rather a procedure to add a new quality to the democratic system by using the network. This proposed system of e-cognocracy would allow those who are interested to solve highly complex problems by participatory decision-making. Furthermore, we suggest the multicriteria framework for the modelling and resolution of such complex problems. Similarly, using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) approach, we propose decisional (analytic and informatic) tools for searching the knowledge - relevant for the decision-making process. This knowledge of patterns of behaviour, trends, opportunities, decisions and stylised facts will be the starting point of a consensus-reaching process, which is aimed to effectively solve problems of high complexity of the Internet society.

Idoneidad de los procesos de diversificación industrial y tecnológica. Estabilidad de los resultados obtenidos con medidas absolutas en AHP

La diversificación industrial y tecnológica se revela como una estrategia que adoptan las empresas que buscan minimizar el riesgo derivado de la dependencia de uno o pocos productos. Sin embargo, esta decisión no es trivial puesto que lleva asociada una serie de inconvenientes y por lo tanto debe ser estudiada en profundidad. Por otro lado, no todas las empresas están preparadas para llevar a cabo este tipo de procesos debido, fundamentalmente, a motivos económicos (el proceso lleva asociado un coste), o estructurales (es necesario la inversión de recursos y la posesión de tecnologías clave). Este artículo recoge el marco metodológico propuesto en trabajos anteriores de los autores para analizar la idoneidad de los procesos de diversificación, que consiste en tres fases: (i) evaluación de la idoneidad de diversificación, (ii) selección de la estrategia de diversificación industrial y tecnológica y (iii) implementación, y presenta un procedimiento para analizar la estabilidad de los resultados obtenidos en la primera fase de la metodología al utilizar AHP con medidas absolutas. El análisis de la estabilidad de los resultados se ha aplicado a veintiséis empresas pertenecientes al sector auxiliar del automóvil

Ordering vs. AHP. Does the intensity used in the decision support techniques compensate?

The manifestation of the intensity in the judgment of one alternative versus another in the peer comparison processes is a central element in some decision support techniques, such as the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). However, its contribution regarding quality (expected performance) with respect to the priority vector has not been evaluated so far. Using the Intentional Bounded Rationality Methodology (IBRM), this work analyzes the gains obtained from requiring the decision-maker to report an intensity judgment in pairs (AHP) with respect to a technique that only requires expressing a preference (Ordering). The results show that when decision-makers have low levels of expertise, it is possible that a less informative and computational cheap technique (Ordering) performs better than a more informative and computational expensive one (AHP). When decision-makers have medium and high levels of expertise, AHP technique obtains modest gains with respect to the Ordering technique. This study proposes a cost-benefit analysis of decision support techniques contrasting the gains of a technique that requires more resources (AHP) against other that require less resources (Ordering). Our results can change the managing approach of the information obtained from experts’ judgments

Incorporación de aspectos intangibles en el análisis de la viabilidad del transporte Urbano de Zaragoza

Desde comienzos del siglo XXI se esta prestando una atencion especial a la incorporacion en los procesos decisionales de los aspectos intangibles, subjetivos y emocionales asociados al elemento clave de la Sociedad del Conocimiento, el factor humano. En este contexto, conforme a la vision integral que se esta siguiendo en el ambito de la ingenieria civil, el presente trabajo pretende incorporar estos aspectos intangibles y subjetivos, asociados fundamentalmente a los aspectos sociales y ambientales, junto a los tangibles, objetivos y racionales (economicos y tecnologicos) asociados al metodo cientifico tradicional, en el diseno de rutas de transporte publico urbanas. Para ello, se va a seguir una metodologia multicriterio que, basada en el Proceso Analitico Jerarquico, permita: (i) evaluar la viabilidad integral de las rutas actualmente existentes en la ciudad de referencia, Zaragoza en este caso; (ii) identificar las rutas menos eficaces y (iii) seleccionar entre las potenciales mejoras aquella que contemplando simultaneamente criterios tecnologicos, economicos, sociales y ambientales sea mejor. Since the beginning of the 21st century special attention has been paid to the incorporation into the decisional processes of the intangible, subjective and emotional aspects associated with the fundamental element of the Knowledge Society, the human factor. In this context, in accordance with the comprehensive vision that is being followed in the field of civil engineering, the present paper aims to incorporate these intangible and subjective aspects, mainly associated with social and environmental aspects, together with tangible, objective and rational (economic and technological) associated with the traditional scientific method, in the design of urban public transport routes. For this purpose, a multicriteria methodology will be followed that, based on the Hierarchical Analytical Process, allows: (i) to evaluate the integral viability of the routes currently existing in the reference city, Zaragoza in this case; (ii) identify the least effective routes and (iii) select among the potential improvements that which contemplates simultaneously technological, economic, social and environmental criteria is better

Viabilidad integral de las rutas de transporte urbano en Zaragoza

[EN] Since the beginning of the 21st century special attention has been paid to the incorporation into the decisional processes of the intangible, subjective and emotional aspects associated with the fundamental element of the Knowledge Society, the human factor. In this context, in accordance with the comprehensive vision that is being followed in the field of civil engineering, the present Final Degree Project aims to incorporate these intangible and subjective aspects, mainly associated with social and environmental aspects, together with tangible, objective and rational (economic and technological) associated with the traditional scientific method, in the design of urban public transport routes. For this purpose, a multicriteria methodology will be followed that, based on the Hierarchical Analytical Process, allows: (i) to evaluate the integral viability of the routes currently existing in the reference city, Zaragoza in this case; (ii) identify the least effective routes and (iii) select among the potential improvements that which contemplates simultaneously technological, economic, social and environmental criteria is better.[CA] Des de començaments del segle XXI s'està prestant una atenció especial a la incorporació en els processos de decisió dels aspectes intangibles, subjectius i emocionals associats a l'element fonamental de la Societat del Coneixement, el factor humà. En aquest context, d'acord amb la visió integral que s'està seguint en l'àmbit de l'enginyeria civil, el present Treball Fi de Grau pretén incorporar aquests aspectes intangibles i subjectius, associats fonamentalment als aspectes socials i ambientals, al costat dels tangibles, objectius i racionals (econòmics i tecnològics) associats al mètode científic tradicional, en el disseny de rutes de transport públic urbanes. Per a això, se seguirà una metodologia multicriteri que, basada en el Procés Analític Jeràrquic, permeti: (i) avaluar la viabilitat integral de les rutes actualment existents a la ciutat de referència, Zaragoza en aquest cas; (Ii) identificar les rutes menys eficaços i (iii) seleccionar entre les potencials millores aquella que contemplant simultàniament criteris tecnològics, econòmics, socials i ambientals sigui millor.[ES] Desde comienzos del siglo XXI se está prestando una atención especial a la incorporación en los procesos decisionales de los aspectos intangibles, subjetivos y emocionales asociados al elemento fundamental de la Sociedad del Conocimiento, el factor humano. En este contexto, conforme a la visión integral que se está siguiendo en el ámbito de la ingeniería civil, el presente Trabajo Fin de Grado pretende incorporar estos aspectos intangibles y subjetivos, asociados fundamentalmente a los aspectos sociales y ambientales, junto a los tangibles, objetivos y racionales (económicos y tecnológicos) asociados al método científico tradicional, en el diseño de rutas de transporte público urbanas. Para ello, se va a seguir una metodología multicriterio que, basada en el Proceso Analítico Jerárquico, permita: (i) evaluar la viabilidad integral de las rutas actualmente existentes en la ciudad de referencia, Zaragoza en este caso; (ii) identificar las rutas menos eficaces y (iii) seleccionar entre las potenciales mejoras aquella que contemplando simultáneamente criterios tecnológicos, económicos, sociales y ambientales sea mejor.Moreno Loscertales, JM. (2018). Viabilidad integral de las rutas de transporte urbano en Zaragoza. http://hdl.handle.net/10251/114223Archivo delegad

Development and evaluation of multiple criteria decision-making approaches to watershed management

Decision-making in environmental management is complex due to the multiplicity arid diversity of management objectives and technological choices. This suggests that modelers and experts could utilize (I) multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approaches to assist stakeholder groups in integrating and synthesizing relevant data and information to address ecological and socio-economic concerns and (2) uncertainty approaches to quantify the risks related to the impact of decision alternatives. Since decisions made under uncertainty and MCDM methods have been studied almost independently, most of the MCDM approaches do not address the uncertainties of real world decision situations. This dissertation presents the use of a MCDM methodology and its related decision-making tool, RESTORE. RESTORE is an integrative geographical information system-based decision-making tool that was developed to help watershed councils prioritize and evaluate restoration activities at the watershed level. RESTORE's deterministic performance evaluation module is developed from experts' knowledge and experiences. However, to filly address the complexity of the various landscape processes and human subjectivity, RESTORE should involve uncertainties inherent to experts' knowledge. No single method is able to model all types of uncertainty, therefore the examination of various uncertainty theories is critical before selecting one best suited to a specific decision context. This work explores three uncertainty theories: certainty factor model, Dempster-Shafer theory, and fuzzy set theory. To evaluate these methods in a MCDM watershed restoration context, we (1) identified criteria to assess the suitability of a method for a specific MCDM context, (2) characterized each theory in terms of the identified criteria using RESTORE, and (3) applied each theory using RESTORE. Special emphasis was given to the development of a comprehensive fuzzy MCDM methodology. Uncertainty-based MCDM approaches provide a valuable tool in analyzing complex watershed management issues. When used properly, the proposed MCDM methodology allows decision-makers (DMs) to explore a broader range of drivers and consequences. The inclusion of uncertainty analysis provides DMs with meaningful information on the quality of the evidence supporting the impact of a decision alternative, allowing them to make more informed decisions