A smart forecasting approach to district energy management

This study presents a model for district-level electricity demand forecasting using a set of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) (parallel ANNs) based on current energy loads and social parameters such as occupancy. A comprehensive sensitivity analysis is conducted to select the inputs of the ANN by considering external weather conditions, occupancy type, main income providers’ employment status and related variables for the fuel poverty index. Moreover, a detailed parameter tuning is conducted using various configurations for each individual ANN. The study also demonstrates the strength of the parallel ANN models in different seasons of the years. In the proposed district level energy forecasting model, the training and testing stages of parallel ANNs utilise dataset of a group of six buildings. The aim of each individual ANN is to predict electricity consumption and the aggregated demand in sub-hourly time-steps. The inputs of each ANN are determined using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Multiple Regression Analysis (MRA) methods. The accuracy and consistency of ANN predictions are evaluated using Pearson coefficient and average percentage error, and against four seasons: winter, spring, summer, and autumn. The lowest prediction error for the aggregated demand is about 4.51% for winter season and the largest prediction error is found as 8.82% for spring season. The results demonstrate that peak demand can be predicted successfully, and utilised to forecast and provide demand-side flexibility to the aggregators for effective management of district energy systems

Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Approaches to Energy Demand-Side Response: A Systematic Review

Recent years have seen an increasing interest in Demand Response (DR) as a means to provide flexibility, and hence improve the reliability of energy systems in a cost-effective way. Yet, the high complexity of the tasks associated with DR, combined with their use of large-scale data and the frequent need for near real-time de-cisions, means that Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) — a branch of AI — have recently emerged as key technologies for enabling demand-side response. AI methods can be used to tackle various challenges, ranging from selecting the optimal set of consumers to respond, learning their attributes and pref-erences, dynamic pricing, scheduling and control of devices, learning how to incentivise participants in the DR schemes and how to reward them in a fair and economically efficient way. This work provides an overview of AI methods utilised for DR applications, based on a systematic review of over 160 papers, 40 companies and commercial initiatives, and 21 large-scale projects. The papers are classified with regards to both the AI/ML algorithm(s) used and the application area in energy DR. Next, commercial initiatives are presented (including both start-ups and established companies) and large-scale innovation projects, where AI methods have been used for energy DR. The paper concludes with a discussion of advantages and potential limitations of reviewed AI techniques for different DR tasks, and outlines directions for future research in this fast-growing area

Forecasting the aggregated charging load of electric vehicles at different charging sites

The anticipated large-scale market ramp-up of electric vehicles in the future represents both an opportunity and a major challenge for the power grid. On the one hand, electric vehicles may support the power grid by offering their flexibility on the Control Reserve market. On the other hand, simultaneous charging could lead to severe grid bottlenecks in the low voltage network. In either case, the prediction of the aggregated charging load is of great importance. Within this work a new multi-variate multi-step forecasting approach based on Artificial Neural Networks, namely the Long Short-Term Memory, is introduced. Using historical charging data, a prediction of the aggregated charging load in 15-min resolution, clustered according to the charging at home, the charging at work, the charging at public car parks and the charging at shopping centers, is conducted. For each charging site two forecast horizons, a 1-hour and a 1-day charging load forecast, are analyzed. The results indicate that no reliable forecast of the charging load can be accomplished with a forecast horizon of one day and that the prediction accuracy can be significantly increased if the period is shortened to one hour

Online monitoring and control of voltage stability margin via machine learning-based adaptive approaches

Voltage instability or voltage collapse, observed in many blackout events, poses a significant threat to power system reliability. To prevent voltage collapse, the countermeasures suggested by the post analyses of the blackouts usually include the adoption of better online voltage stability monitoring and control tools. Recently, the variability and uncertainty imposed by the increasing penetration of renewable energy further magnifies this need. This work investigates the methodologies for online voltage stability margin (VSM) monitoring and control in the new era of smart grid and big data. It unleashes the value of online measurements and leverages the fruitful results in machine learning and demand response. An online VSM monitoring approach based on local regression and adaptive database is proposed. Considering the increasing variability and uncertainty of power system operation, this approach utilizes the locality of underlying pattern between VSM and reactive power reserve (RPR), and can adapt to the changing condition of system. LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator) is tailored to solve the local regression problem so as to mitigate the curse of dimensionality for large-scale system. Along with the VSM prediction, its prediction interval is also estimated simultaneously in a simple but effective way, and utilized as an evidence to trigger the database updating. IEEE 30-bus system and a 60,000-bus large system are used to test and demonstrate the proposed approach. The results show that the proposed approach can be successfully employed in online voltage stability monitoring for real size systems, and the adaptivity of model and data endows the proposed approach with the advantage in the circumstances where large and unforeseen changes of system condition are inevitable. In case degenerative system conditions are identified, a control strategy is needed to steer the system back to security. A model predictive control (MPC) based framework is proposed to maintain VSM in near-real-time while minimizing the control cost. VSM is locally modeled as a linear function of RPRs based on the VSM monitoring tool, which convexifies the intricate VSM-constrained optimization problem. Thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs) are utilized through a demand response (DR) aggregator as the efficient measure to enhance voltage stability. For such an advanced application of the energy management system (EMS), plug-and-play is a necessary feature that makes the new controller really applicable in a cooperative operating environment. In this work, the cooperation is realized by a predictive interface strategy, which predicts the behaviors of relevant controllers using the simple models declared and updated by those controllers. In particular, the customer dissatisfaction, defined as the cumulative discomfort caused by DR, is explicitly constrained in respect of customers\u27 interests. This constraint maintains the applicability of the control. IEEE 30-bus system is used to demonstrate the proposed control strategy. Adaptivity and proactivity lie at the heart of the proposed approach. By making full use of real-time information, the proposed approach is competent at the task of VSM monitoring and control in a non-stationary and uncertain operating environment

Modeling and Communicating Flexibility in Smart Grids Using Artificial Neural Networks as Surrogate Models

Increasing shares of renewable energies and the transition towards electric vehicles pose major challenges to the energy system. In order to tackle these in an economically sensible way, the flexibility of distributed energy resources (DERs), such as battery energy storage systems, combined heat and power plants, and heat pumps, needs to be exploited. Modeling and communicating this flexibility is a fundamental step when trying to achieve control over DERs. The literature proposes and makes use of many different approaches, not only for the exploitation itself, but also in terms of models. In the first step, this thesis presents an extensive literature review and a general framework for classifying exploitation approaches and the communicated models. Often, the employed models only apply to specific types of DERs, or the models are so abstract that they neglect constraints and only roughly outline the true flexibility. Surrogate models, which are learned from data, can pose as generic DER models and may potentially be trained in a fully automated process. In this thesis, the idea of encoding the flexibility of DERs into ANNs is systematically investigated. Based on the presented framework, a set of ANN-based surrogate modeling approaches is derived and outlined, of which some are only applicable for specific use cases. In order to establish a baseline for the approximation quality, one of the most versatile identified approaches is evaluated in order to assess how well a set of reference models is approximated. If this versatile model is able to capture the flexibility well, a more specific model can be expected to do so even better. The results show that simple DERs are very closely approximated, and for more complex DERs and combinations of multiple DERs, a high approximation quality can be achieved by introducing buffers. Additionally, the investigated approach has been tested in scheduling tasks for multiple different DERs, showing that it is indeed possible to use ANN-based surrogates for the flexibility of DERs to derive load schedules. Finally, the computational complexity of utilizing the different approaches for controlling DERs is compared

Optimization of Aggregators Energy Resources considering Local Markets and Electric Vehicle Penetration

O sector elétrico tem vindo a evoluir ao longo do tempo. Esta situação deve-se ao facto de surgirem novas metodologias para lidarem com a elevada penetração dos recursos energéticos distribuídos (RED), principalmente veículos elétricos (VEs). Neste caso, a gestão dos recursos energéticos tornou-se mais proeminente devido aos avanços tecnológicos que estão a ocorrer, principalmente no contexto das redes inteligentes. Este facto torna-se importante, devido à incerteza decorrente deste tipo de recursos. Para resolver problemas que envolvem variabilidade, os métodos baseados na inteligência computacional estão a se tornar os mais adequados devido à sua fácil implementação e baixo esforço computacional, mais precisamente para o caso tratado na tese, algoritmos de computação evolucionária (CE). Este tipo de algoritmo tenta imitar o comportamento observado na natureza. Ao contrário dos métodos determinísticos, a CEé tolerante à incerteza; ou seja, é adequado para resolver problemas relacionados com os sistemas energéticos. Estes sistemas são geralmente de grandes dimensões, com um número crescente de variáveis e restrições. Aqui a IC permite obter uma solução quase ótima em tempo computacional aceitável com baixos requisitos de memória. O principal objetivo deste trabalho foi propor um modelo para a programação dos recursos energéticos dos recursos dedicados para o contexto intradiário, para a hora seguinte, partindo inicialmente da programação feita para o dia seguinte, ou seja, 24 horas para o dia seguinte. Esta programação é feita por cada agregador (no total cinco) através de meta-heurísticas, com o objetivo de minimizar os custos ou maximizar os lucros. Estes agregadores estão inseridos numa cidade inteligente com uma rede de distribuição de 13 barramentos com elevada penetração de RED, principalmente energia renovável e VEs (2000 VEs são considerados nas simulações). Para modelar a incerteza associada ao RED e aos preços de mercado, vários cenários são gerados através da simulação de Monte Carlo usando as funções de distribuição de probabilidade de erros de previsão, neste caso a função de distribuição normal para o dia seguinte. No que toca à incerteza no modelo para a hora seguinte, múltiplos cenários são gerados a partir do cenário com maior probabilidade do dia seguinte. Neste trabalho, os mercados locais de eletricidade são também utilizados como estratégia para satisfazer a equação do balanço energético onde os agregadores vão para vender o excesso de energia ou comprar para satisfazer o consumo. Múltiplas metaheurísticas de última geração são usadas para fazer este escalonamento, nomeadamente Differential Evolution (DE), Hybrid-Adaptive DE with Decay function (HyDE-DF), DE with Estimation of Distribution Algorithm (DEEDA), Cellular Univariate Marginal Distribution Algorithm with Normal-Cauchy Distribution (CUMDANCauchy++), Hill Climbing to Ring Cellular Encode-Decode UMDA (HC2RCEDUMDA). Os resultados mostram que o modelo proposto é eficaz para os múltiplos agregadores com variações de custo na sua maioria abaixo dos 5% em relação ao dia seguinte, exceto para o agregador e de VEs. É também aplicado um teste Wilcoxon para comparar o desempenho do algoritmo CUMDANCauchy++ com as restantes meta-heurísticas. O CUMDANCauchy++ mostra resultados competitivos tendo melhor performance que todos os algoritmos para todos os agregadores exceto o DEEDA que apresenta resultados semelhantes. Uma estratégia de aversão ao risco é implementada para um agregador no contexto do dia seguinte para se obter uma solução mais segura e robusta. Os resultados mostram um aumento de quase 4% no investimento, mas uma redução de até 14% para o custo dos piores cenários.The electrical sector has been evolving. This situation is because new methodologies emerge to deal with the high penetration of distributed energy resources (DER), mainly electric vehicles (EVs). In this case, energy resource management has become increasingly prominent due to the technological advances that are taking place, mainly in the context of smart grids. This factor becomes essential due to the uncertainty of this type of resource. To solve problems involving variability, methods based on computational intelligence (CI) are becoming the most suitable because of their easy implementation and low computational effort, more precisely for the case treated in this thesis, evolutionary computation (EC) algorithms. This type of algorithm tries to mimic behavior observed in nature. Unlike deterministic methods, the EC is tolerant of uncertainty, and thus it is suitable for solving problems related to energy systems. These systems are usually of high dimensions, with an increased number of variables and restrictions. Here the CI allows obtaining a near-optimal solution in good computational time with low memory requirements. This work's main objective is to propose a model for the energy resource scheduling of the dedicated resources for the intraday context, for the our-ahead, starting initially from the scheduling done for the day ahead, that is, 24 hours for the next day. This scheduling is done by each aggregator (in total five) through metaheuristics to minimize the costs or maximize the profits. These aggregators are inserted in a smart city with a distribution network of 13 buses with a high penetration of DER, mainly renewable energy and EVs (2000 EVs are considered in the simulations). Several scenarios are generated through Monte Carlo Simulation using the forecast errors' probability distribution functions, the normal distribution function for the day-ahead to model the uncertainty associated with DER and market prices. Multiple scenarios are developed through the highest probability scenario from the day-ahead when it comes to intraday uncertainty. In this work, local electricity markets are used as a mechanism to satisfy the energy balance equation where each aggregator can sell the excess of energy or buy more to meet the demand. Several recent and modern metaheuristics are used to solve the proposed problems in the thesis, namely Differential Evolution (DE), Hybrid-Adaptive DE with Decay function (HyDE-DF), DE with Estimation of Distribution Algorithm (DEEDA), Cellular Univariate Marginal Distribution Algorithm with NormalCauchy Distribution (CUMDANCauchy++), Hill Climbing to Ring Cellular Encode-Decode UMDA (HC2RCEDUMDA). Results show that the proposed model is effective for the multiple aggregators. The metaheuristics present satisfactory results and mostly less than 5% variation in costs from the day-ahead except for the EV aggregator. A Wilcoxon test is also applied to compare the performance of the CUMDANCauchy++ algorithm with the remaining metaheuristics. CUMDANCauchy++ shows competitive results beating all algorithms in all aggregators except for DEEDA, which presents similar results. A risk aversion strategy is implemented for an aggregator in the day-ahead context to get a safer and more robust solution. Results show an increase of nearly 4% in day-ahead cost but a reduction of up to 14% of worst scenario cost

Integration of electric vehicles into distribution networks

The objectives of this research were to investigate the impact of electric vehicle battery charging on grid demand at a national level and on the steady state parameters of distribution networks. An agent-based control system that coordinates the battery charging of electric vehicles according to electric vehicle owner preferences, distribution network technical limits and electricity prices was designed and developed and its operation was tested experimentally. The impact on grid demand peak increases at the national systems of Great Britain and Spain was evaluated using low and high electric vehicle uptake levels of 7% and 48.5% of the car fleet for the year 2030 with a deterministic method. It was found that a low uptake will not raise significantly the grid demand peaks in both countries under investigation. However, a high uptake will raise significantly the grid demand peaks. The impact from residential electric vehicle battery charging on steady state voltages, power line losses, transformers’ and cables’ loadings of distribution networks was evaluated using a deterministic and a probabilistic method. It was found that low and medium uptake levels of electric vehicles equivalent to 12.5% and 33% per residential area of 384 customers in 2030, can be safely accommodated by reinforcing the distribution network. A combination of reinforcements, installation of microgenerators and control of electric vehicle battery charging will be required to accommodate safely a high uptake of 71% with regards to the constraints studied. An agent-based control system that coordinates the battery charging of electric vehicles was designed and developed. Search techniques and neural networks were used for the decision making processes. The ability of the agent-based control system to operate successfully in both normal and abnormal conditions for the electrical network was proved with experimental validation in the laboratory of Tecnalia research institute in Spain.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo