1,214 research outputs found
Phase transitions in contagion processes mediated by recurrent mobility patterns
Human mobility and activity patterns mediate contagion on many levels,
including the spatial spread of infectious diseases, diffusion of rumors, and
emergence of consensus. These patterns however are often dominated by specific
locations and recurrent flows and poorly modeled by the random diffusive
dynamics generally used to study them. Here we develop a theoretical framework
to analyze contagion within a network of locations where individuals recall
their geographic origins. We find a phase transition between a regime in which
the contagion affects a large fraction of the system and one in which only a
small fraction is affected. This transition cannot be uncovered by continuous
deterministic models due to the stochastic features of the contagion process
and defines an invasion threshold that depends on mobility parameters,
providing guidance for controlling contagion spread by constraining mobility
processes. We recover the threshold behavior by analyzing diffusion processes
mediated by real human commuting data.Comment: 20 pages of Main Text including 4 figures, 7 pages of Supplementary
Information; Nature Physics (2011
Hybrid Epidemics - A Case Study on Computer Worm Conficker
Conficker is a computer worm that erupted on the Internet in 2008. It is
unique in combining three different spreading strategies: local probing,
neighbourhood probing, and global probing. We propose a mathematical model that
combines three modes of spreading, local, neighbourhood and global to capture
the worm's spreading behaviour. The parameters of the model are inferred
directly from network data obtained during the first day of the Conifcker
epidemic. The model is then used to explore the trade-off between spreading
modes in determining the worm's effectiveness. Our results show that the
Conficker epidemic is an example of a critically hybrid epidemic, in which the
different modes of spreading in isolation do not lead to successful epidemics.
Such hybrid spreading strategies may be used beneficially to provide the most
effective strategies for promulgating information across a large population.
When used maliciously, however, they can present a dangerous challenge to
current internet security protocols
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Adequacy of SEIR models when epidemics have spatial structure: Ebola in Sierra Leone.
Dynamic SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Removed) compartmental models provide a tool for predicting the size and duration of both unfettered and managed outbreaks-the latter in the context of interventions such as case detection, patient isolation, vaccination and treatment. The reliability of this tool depends on the validity of key assumptions that include homogeneity of individuals and spatio-temporal homogeneity. Although the SEIR compartmental framework can easily be extended to include demographic (e.g. age) and additional disease (e.g. healthcare workers) classes, dependence of transmission rates on time, and metapopulation structure, fitting such extended models is hampered by both a proliferation of free parameters and insufficient or inappropriate data. This raises the question of how effective a tool the basic SEIR framework may actually be. We go some way here to answering this question in the context of the 2014-2015 outbreak of Ebola in West Africa by comparing fits of an SEIR time-dependent transmission model to both country- and district-level weekly incidence data. Our novel approach in estimating the effective-size-of-the-populations-at-risk ( Neff) and initial number of exposed individuals ( E0) at both district and country levels, as well as the transmission function parameters, including a time-to-halving-the-force-of-infection ( tf/2) parameter, provides new insights into this Ebola outbreak. It reveals that the estimate R0 ≈ 1.7 from country-level data appears to seriously underestimate R0 ≈ 3.3 - 4.3 obtained from more spatially homogeneous district-level data. Country-level data also overestimate tf/2 ≈ 22 weeks, compared with 8-10 weeks from district-level data. Additionally, estimates for the duration of individual infectiousness is around two weeks from spatially inhomogeneous country-level data compared with 2.4-4.5 weeks from spatially more homogeneous district-level data, which estimates are rather high compared with most values reported in the literature. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'
Optimizing surveillance for livestock disease spreading through animal movements
The spatial propagation of many livestock infectious diseases critically
depends on the animal movements among premises; so the knowledge of movement
data may help us to detect, manage and control an outbreak. The identification
of robust spreading features of the system is however hampered by the temporal
dimension characterizing population interactions through movements. Traditional
centrality measures do not provide relevant information as results strongly
fluctuate in time and outbreak properties heavily depend on geotemporal initial
conditions. By focusing on the case study of cattle displacements in Italy, we
aim at characterizing livestock epidemics in terms of robust features useful
for planning and control, to deal with temporal fluctuations, sensitivity to
initial conditions and missing information during an outbreak. Through spatial
disease simulations, we detect spreading paths that are stable across different
initial conditions, allowing the clustering of the seeds and reducing the
epidemic variability. Paths also allow us to identify premises, called
sentinels, having a large probability of being infected and providing critical
information on the outbreak origin, as encoded in the clusters. This novel
procedure provides a general framework that can be applied to specific
diseases, for aiding risk assessment analysis and informing the design of
optimal surveillance systems.Comment: Supplementary Information at
https://sites.google.com/site/paolobajardi/Home/archive/optimizing_surveillance_ESM_l.pdf?attredirects=
Coupling ecological and social network models to assess “transmission” and “contagion” of an aquatic invasive species
Network analysis is used to address diverse ecological, social, economic, and epidemiological questions, but few efforts have been made to combine these field-specific analyses into interdisciplinary approaches that effectively address how complex systems are interdependent and connected to one another. Identifying and understanding these cross-boundary connections improves natural resource management and promotes proactive, rather than reactive, decisions. This research had two main objectives; first, adapt the framework and approach of infectious disease network modeling so that it may be applied to the socio-ecological problem of spreading aquatic invasive species, and second, use this new coupled model to simulate the spread of the invasive Chinese mystery snail (Bellamya chinensis) in a reservoir network in Southeastern Nebraska, USA. The coupled model integrates an existing social network model of how anglers move on the landscape with new reservoir-specific ecological network models. This approach allowed us to identify 1) how angler movement among reservoirs aids in the spread of B. chinensis, 2) how B. chinensis alters energy flows within individual-reservoir food webs, and 3) a new method for assessing the spread of any number of non-native or invasive species within complex, social-ecological systems
Infectious Disease Modeling of Social Contagion in Networks
Many behavioral phenomena have been found to spread interpersonally through social networks, in a manner similar to infectious diseases. An important difference between social contagion and traditional infectious diseases, however, is that behavioral phenomena can be acquired by non-social mechanisms as well as through social transmission. We introduce a novel theoretical framework for studying these phenomena (the SISa model) by adapting a classic disease model to include the possibility for ‘automatic’ (or ‘spontaneous’) non-social infection. We provide an example of the use of this framework by examining the spread of obesity in the Framingham Heart Study Network. The interaction assumptions of the model are validated using longitudinal network transmission data. We find that the current rate of becoming obese is 2 per year and increases by 0.5 percentage points for each obese social contact. The rate of recovering from obesity is 4 per year, and does not depend on the number of non-obese contacts. The model predicts a long-term obesity prevalence of approximately 42, and can be used to evaluate the effect of different interventions on steady-state obesity. Model predictions quantitatively reproduce the actual historical time course for the prevalence of obesity. We find that since the 1970s, the rate of recovery from obesity has remained relatively constant, while the rates of both spontaneous infection and transmission have steadily increased over time. This suggests that the obesity epidemic may be driven by increasing rates of becoming obese, both spontaneously and transmissively, rather than by decreasing rates of losing weight. A key feature of the SISa model is its ability to characterize the relative importance of social transmission by quantitatively comparing rates of spontaneous versus contagious infection. It provides a theoretical framework for studying the interpersonal spread of any state that may also arise spontaneously, such as emotions, behaviors, health states, ideas or diseases with reservoirs.National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (grant R01GM078986)National Science Foundation (U.S.)Bill & Melinda Gates FoundationTempleton FoundationNational Institute on Aging (grant P01 AG031093)Framingham Heart Study (contract number N01-HC-25195
Predicting epidemic risk from past temporal contact data
Understanding how epidemics spread in a system is a crucial step to prevent
and control outbreaks, with broad implications on the system's functioning,
health, and associated costs. This can be achieved by identifying the elements
at higher risk of infection and implementing targeted surveillance and control
measures. One important ingredient to consider is the pattern of
disease-transmission contacts among the elements, however lack of data or
delays in providing updated records may hinder its use, especially for
time-varying patterns. Here we explore to what extent it is possible to use
past temporal data of a system's pattern of contacts to predict the risk of
infection of its elements during an emerging outbreak, in absence of updated
data. We focus on two real-world temporal systems; a livestock displacements
trade network among animal holdings, and a network of sexual encounters in
high-end prostitution. We define the node's loyalty as a local measure of its
tendency to maintain contacts with the same elements over time, and uncover
important non-trivial correlations with the node's epidemic risk. We show that
a risk assessment analysis incorporating this knowledge and based on past
structural and temporal pattern properties provides accurate predictions for
both systems. Its generalizability is tested by introducing a theoretical model
for generating synthetic temporal networks. High accuracy of our predictions is
recovered across different settings, while the amount of possible predictions
is system-specific. The proposed method can provide crucial information for the
setup of targeted intervention strategies.Comment: 24 pages, 5 figures + SI (18 pages, 15 figures
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