22,681 research outputs found
Invited review: Epidemics on social networks
Since its first formulations almost a century ago, mathematical models for
disease spreading contributed to understand, evaluate and control the epidemic
processes.They promoted a dramatic change in how epidemiologists thought of the
propagation of infectious diseases.In the last decade, when the traditional
epidemiological models seemed to be exhausted, new types of models were
developed.These new models incorporated concepts from graph theory to describe
and model the underlying social structure.Many of these works merely produced a
more detailed extension of the previous results, but some others triggered a
completely new paradigm in the mathematical study of epidemic processes. In
this review, we will introduce the basic concepts of epidemiology, epidemic
modeling and networks, to finally provide a brief description of the most
relevant results in the field.Comment: 17 pages, 13 figure
Dynamics of interacting diseases
Current modeling of infectious diseases allows for the study of complex and
realistic scenarios that go from the population to the individual level of
description. However, most epidemic models assume that the spreading process
takes place on a single level (be it a single population, a meta-population
system or a network of contacts). In particular, interdependent contagion
phenomena can only be addressed if we go beyond the scheme one pathogen-one
network. In this paper, we propose a framework that allows describing the
spreading dynamics of two concurrent diseases. Specifically, we characterize
analytically the epidemic thresholds of the two diseases for different
scenarios and also compute the temporal evolution characterizing the unfolding
dynamics. Results show that there are regions of the parameter space in which
the onset of a disease's outbreak is conditioned to the prevalence levels of
the other disease. Moreover, we show, for the SIS scheme, that under certain
circumstances, finite and not vanishing epidemic thresholds are found even at
the thermodynamic limit for scale-free networks. For the SIR scenario, the
phenomenology is richer and additional interdependencies show up. We also find
that the secondary thresholds for the SIS and SIR models are different, which
results directly from the interaction between both diseases. Our work thus
solve an important problem and pave the way towards a more comprehensive
description of the dynamics of interacting diseases.Comment: 24 pages, 9 figures, 4 tables, 3 appendices. Final version accepted
for publication in Physical Review
The Scaling of Human Contacts in Reaction-Diffusion Processes on Heterogeneous Metapopulation Networks
We present new empirical evidence, based on millions of interactions on
Twitter, confirming that human contacts scale with population sizes. We
integrate such observations into a reaction-diffusion metapopulation framework
providing an analytical expression for the global invasion threshold of a
contagion process. Remarkably, the scaling of human contacts is found to
facilitate the spreading dynamics. Our results show that the scaling properties
of human interactions can significantly affect dynamical processes mediated by
human contacts such as the spread of diseases, and ideas
A class of pairwise models for epidemic dynamics on weighted networks
In this paper, we study the (susceptible-infected-susceptible) and
(susceptible-infected-removed) epidemic models on undirected, weighted
networks by deriving pairwise-type approximate models coupled with
individual-based network simulation. Two different types of
theoretical/synthetic weighted network models are considered. Both models start
from non-weighted networks with fixed topology followed by the allocation of
link weights in either (i) random or (ii) fixed/deterministic way. The pairwise
models are formulated for a general discrete distribution of weights, and these
models are then used in conjunction with network simulation to evaluate the
impact of different weight distributions on epidemic threshold and dynamics in
general. For the dynamics, the basic reproductive ratio is
computed, and we show that (i) for both network models is maximised if
all weights are equal, and (ii) when the two models are equally matched, the
networks with a random weight distribution give rise to a higher value.
The models are also used to explore the agreement between the pairwise and
simulation models for different parameter combinations
Phase transitions in contagion processes mediated by recurrent mobility patterns
Human mobility and activity patterns mediate contagion on many levels,
including the spatial spread of infectious diseases, diffusion of rumors, and
emergence of consensus. These patterns however are often dominated by specific
locations and recurrent flows and poorly modeled by the random diffusive
dynamics generally used to study them. Here we develop a theoretical framework
to analyze contagion within a network of locations where individuals recall
their geographic origins. We find a phase transition between a regime in which
the contagion affects a large fraction of the system and one in which only a
small fraction is affected. This transition cannot be uncovered by continuous
deterministic models due to the stochastic features of the contagion process
and defines an invasion threshold that depends on mobility parameters,
providing guidance for controlling contagion spread by constraining mobility
processes. We recover the threshold behavior by analyzing diffusion processes
mediated by real human commuting data.Comment: 20 pages of Main Text including 4 figures, 7 pages of Supplementary
Information; Nature Physics (2011
Epidemic processes in complex networks
In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence
for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide
range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of
real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and
nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of
epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of
dynamical processes in complex networks. The theoretical analysis of epidemic
spreading in heterogeneous networks requires the development of novel
analytical frameworks, and it has produced results of conceptual and practical
relevance. A coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity
concerning epidemic processes is presented, detailing the successful
theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear.
Physicists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, computer, and social scientists
share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and rely on similar
models for the description of the diffusion of pathogens, knowledge, and
innovation. For this reason, while focusing on the main results and the
paradigmatic models in infectious disease modeling, the major results
concerning generalized social contagion processes are also presented. Finally,
the research activity at the forefront in the study of epidemic spreading in
coevolving, coupled, and time-varying networks is reported.Comment: 62 pages, 15 figures, final versio
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