Transport Systems: Safety Modeling, Visions and Strategies

This reprint includes papers describing the synthesis of current theory and practice of planning, design, operation, and safety of modern transport, with special focus on future visions and strategies of transport sustainability, which will be of interest to scientists dealing with transport problems and generally involved in traffic engineering as well as design, traffic networks, and maintenance engineers

Understanding Micro-Level Lane Change and Lane Keeping Driving Decisions: Harnessing Big Data Streams from Instrumented Vehicles

It is important to get a deeper understanding of instantaneous driving behaviors, especially aggressive and extreme driving behaviors such as hard acceleration, as they endanger traffic efficiency and safety by creating unstable flows and dangerous situations. The aim of the dissertation is to understand micro-level instantaneous driving decisions related to lateral movements such as lane change or lane keeping events on various roadway types. The impacts of these movements are fundamental to microscopic traffic flow and safety. Sufficient geo-referenced data collected from connected vehicles enables analysis of these driving decisions. The “Big Data” cover vehicle trajectories, reported at 10 Hz frequency, and driving situations, which make it possible to establish a framework.The dissertation conducts several key analyses by applying advanced statistical modeling and data mining techniques. First, the dissertation proposes an innovative methodology for identifying normal and extreme lane change events by analyzing the lane-based vehicle positions, e.g., sharp changes in distance of vehicle centerline relative to the lane boundaries, and vehicle motions captured by the distributions of instantaneous lateral acceleration and speed. Second, since surrounding driving behavior influences instantaneous lane keeping behaviors, the dissertation investigates correlations between different driving situations and lateral shifting volatility, which quantifies the variability in instantaneous lateral displacements. Third, the dissertation analyzes the “Gossip effect” which captures the peer influence of surrounding vehicles on the instantaneous driving decisions of subject vehicles at micro-level. Lastly, the dissertation explores correlations between lane change crash propensity or injury severity and driving volatility, which quantifies the fluctuation variability in instantaneous driving decisions.The research findings contribute to the ongoing theoretical and policy debates regarding the effects of instantaneous driving movements. The main contributions of this dissertation are: 1) Quantification of instantaneous driving decisions with regard to two aspects: vehicle motions (e.g., lateral and longitudinal acceleration, and vehicle speed) and lateral displacement; 2) Extraction of critical information embedded in large-scale trajectory data; and 3) An understanding of the correlations between lane change outcomes and instantaneous lateral driving decisions

Modeling Older Driver Behavior on Freeway Merging Ramps

Merging from on-ramps to mainline traffic is one of the most challenging driving maneuvers on freeways. The challenges are further heightened for older drivers, as they are known to have longer perception-reaction times, larger acceptance gaps, and slower acceleration rates. In this research, VISSIM, a microscopic traffic simulation software, was used to evaluate the influence of the aging drivers on the operations of a typical diamond interchange. First, drivers were recorded on video cameras as they negotiated joining the mainline traffic from an on-ramp acceleration lane at two sites along I-75 in Southwest Florida. Several measures of effectiveness were collected including speeds, gaps, and location of entry to the mainline lanes. This information was used as either model input or for verification purposes. Two VISSIM models were developed for each site – one for the existing conditions and verification, and another for a sensitivity analysis, varying the percentage of older drivers and Level of Service (from A to E), to determine their influence on ramp operational characteristics. According to the results, there was a significant difference in driving behavior between older, middle-aged, and younger drivers, based on the measures of effectiveness analyzed in this study. Additionally, as the level of service and percentage of older adult motorists increased, longer queues were observed with slower speeds on the acceleration lanes and the right-most travel lane of the mainline traffic

Connected and Automated Vehicles in Urban Transportation Cyber-Physical Systems

Understanding the components of Transportation Cyber-Physical Systems (TCPS), and inter-relation and interactions among these components are key factors to leverage the full potentials of Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs). In a connected environment, CAVs can communicate with other components of TCPS, which include other CAVs, other connected road users, and digital infrastructure. Deploying supporting infrastructure for TCPS, and developing and testing CAV-specific applications in a TCPS environment are mandatory to achieve the CAV potentials. This dissertation specifically focuses on the study of current TCPS infrastructure (Part 1), and the development and verification of CAV applications for an urban TCPS environment (Part 2). Among the TCPS components, digital infrastructure bears sheer importance as without connected infrastructure, the Vehicle-to-Infrastructure (V2I) applications cannot be implemented. While focusing on the V2I applications in Part 1, this dissertation evaluates the current digital roadway infrastructure status. The dissertation presents a set of recommendations, based on a review of current practices and future needs. In Part 2, To synergize the digital infrastructure deployment with CAV deployments, two V2I applications are developed for CAVs for an urban TCPS environment. At first, a real-time adaptive traffic signal control algorithm is developed, which utilizes CAV data to compute the signal timing parameters for an urban arterial in the near-congested traffic condition. The analysis reveals that the CAV-based adaptive signal control provides operational benefits to both CVs and non-CVs with limited data from 5% CVs, with 5.6% average speed increase, and 66.7% and 32.4% average maximum queue length and stopped delay reduction, respectively, on a corridor compared to the actuated coordinated scenario. The second application includes the development of a situation-aware left-turning CAV controller module, which optimizes CAV speed based on the follower driver\u27s aggressiveness. Existing autonomous vehicle controllers do not consider the surrounding driver\u27s behavior, which may lead to road rage, and rear-end crashes. The analysis shows that the average travel time reduction for the scenarios with 600, 800 and 1000 veh/hr/lane opposite traffic stream are 61%, 23%, and 41%, respectively, for the follower vehicles, if the follower driver\u27s behavior is considered by CAVs

Modeling drivers’ naturalistic driving behavior on rural two-lane curves

This dissertation examined drivers’ naturalistic driving behavior on rural two-lane curves using the Strategic Highway Research Program 2 Naturalistic Driving Study data. It is a state-of-the-art naturalistic driving study that collected more than 3,000 drivers’ daily driving behavior over two years in the U.S. The major data sources were vehicle network, lane tracking system, front and rear radar, driver demographics, driver surveys, vehicle characteristics, and video cameras. This dissertation has three objectives: 1) examine the contributing factors to crashes and near-crashes on rural two-lane curves; 2) understand drivers’ normal driving behavior on rural two lane curves; 3) evaluate how drivers continuously interact with curve geometries using functional data analysis. The first study analyzed the crashes and near-crashes on rural two-lane curves using logistic regression model. The model was used to predict the binary event outcomes using a number of explanatory variables, including driver behavior variables, curve characteristics, and traffic environments. The odds ratio of getting involved in safety critical events was calculated for each contributing factor. Furthermore, the second study focused on the analysis of drivers’ normal curve negotiation behavior on rural two-lane curves. Significant relationships were found between curve radius, lateral acceleration, and vehicle speeds. A linear mixed model was used to predict mean speeds based on curve geometry and driver factors. The third analysis applied functional data analysis method to analyze the time series speed data on four example curves. Functional data analysis was found to be a useful method to analyze the time series observations and understand driver’s behavior from naturalistic driving study. Overall, this dissertation is one of the first studies to investigate drivers’ curve negotiation behavior using naturalistic driving study data, and greatly enhanced our understanding about the role of driver behavior in curve negotiation process. This dissertation had many important implications for curve geometry design, policy making, and advanced vehicle safety system. This dissertation also discussed the opportunities and challenges of analyzing the Strategic Highway Research Program 2 Naturalistic Driving Study data, and the implications for future research

Microscopic Modeling of Driver Behavior Based on Modifying Field Theory for Work Zone Application

Because many freeways in the U.S. and abroad are being reconstructed or rehabilitated, it becomes increasingly important to plan and design freeway work zones with the utmost in safety and efficiency. Central to the effective design of work zones is being able to understand how drivers behave as they approach and enter a work zone area. While simple and complex microscopic models have been used over the years to analyze driver behavior, most models were not designed for application in work zones and thus do not capture the interdependencies between lane-changing and car-following vehicle movements along with the drivers’ cognitive and physical characteristics. With the use of psychology’s field theory, this dissertation develops a framework for creating vector-based, explanatory, deterministic microscopic models, to enhance our understanding of driver behavior in work zones and better aid freeway planners and designers. In field theory, an agent (i.e. the driver) views a field (i.e. the area surrounding the vehicle) filled with stimuli and perceives forces associated with each stimuli once these stimuli are internalized. Based on this theory, the new modeling framework, Modified Field Theory (MFT), is designed to directly incorporate drivers’ perceptions to roadway stimuli along with vehicle movements for drivers of different cognitive and physical abilities. From this framework, specific microscopic models, such as a simple freeway work zone car following model, can be created. It is postulated that models derived from this framework would more accurately reflect the driver decision-making process, naturally modeling the effects of external stimuli such as innovative geometric configurations, lane closures, and technology applications such as variable message boards. A simple freeway work zone car following model was created using the MFT framework. Two MFT car-following agents were created and calibrated. The second agent (Agent 2) followed the first agent (Agent 1) through a one-lane segment of freeway. Car-following data for Agent 2 was plotted on a graph of relative speed vs. distance to the lead vehicle, showing car-following behavior. Car-following behavior for Agent 2 was validated against Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Turner Fairbank Highway Research Center (TFHRC) Living Laboratory data for simple freeway work zone car-following (Driver 15). The car-following behavior of Agent 2 replicated the “spiraling” trend observed in Driver 15. Unlike other models (such as Wiedemann), this model does not ‘force’ these trends to occur; these trends occur naturally, as a result of the perception-reaction time delay and the nature of the forces involved. Additionally, unusual car following trends reported for Driver 15 were replicated in Modified Field Theory when conditions surrounding each event were synthetically recreated. Results demonstrated that the Modified Field Theory framework can successfully replicate the process by which a driver scans the driving environment and reacts to their surroundings. Microscopic models can successfully be created using this framework. Results demonstrated that models created from this framework naturally recreate behavioral trends observed in empirical data, and that these models are capable of replicating driving behavior in unusual scenarios, such as the car following behavior of a subject vehicle when the lead vehicle has a strong sudden acceleration event. Before this model can be applied to work zones, other calibration and validation efforts are required