Advances in the Assessment of Climate Change Impact on the Forest Landscape

Changing climates threaten the habitats and ecosystems at variable extents throughout the world. Forests are unique habitats and ecosystems that are vulnerable by the consequences of climate change. The climate change causes disturbances, alterations. and shifting on the forests that can be diagnosed at the tree and stand scales, as well as can be monitored and analyzed at the landscape scale. Furthermore, some recent researches concentrate on conveying the forest tree and stand-level shifting and disturbances to the forest landscape level by upscaling. In this study, the climate change impacts on the forest landscapes; principally, the disturbances including the drought-induced mortality, growth and productivity failures, and insect outbreaks are evaluated. Secondarily, climate change-induced alterations of the forest species distributions and forest landscape compositions, dynamics of the forest biodiversity, and tree migrations are discussed by focusing particularly on the relatively recent advances involving the modeling procedures. Ultimately, monitoring the climate change-driven shifting phenology of the forest landscape through the remote sensing techniques is referred in this study. Moreover, the study examples dependent upon the climate-ecological modeling and satellite data assessment of the forest landscapes throughout the world are also referenced. The landscape-scale assessment of the climate change impacts on the forest ecosystems provides integrated and comprehensive approach toward the proposal of sustainable mitigations and solutions to the phenomenon

Scientific and local ecological knowledge, shaping perceptions towards protected areas and related ecosystem services

Context Most protected areas are managed based on objectives related to scientific ecological knowledge of species and ecosystems. However, a core principle of sustainability science is that understanding and including local ecological knowledge, perceptions of ecosystem service provision and landscape vulnerability will improve sustainability and resilience of social-ecological systems. Here, we take up these assumptions in the context of protected areas to provide insight on the effectiveness of nature protection goals, particularly in highly human-influenced landscapes. Objectives We examined how residents' ecological knowledge systems, comprised of both local and scientific, mediated the relationship between their characteristics and a set of variables that represented perceptions of ecosystem services, landscape change, human-nature relationships, and impacts. Methods We administered a face-to-face survey to local residents in the Sierra de Guadarrama protected areas, Spain. We used bi- and multi-variate analysis, including partial least squares path modeling to test our hypotheses. Results Ecological knowledge systems were highly correlated and were instrumental in predicting perceptions of water-related ecosystem services, landscape change, increasing outdoors activities, and human-nature relationships. Engagement with nature, socio-demographics, trip characteristics, and a rural-urban gradient explained a high degree of variation in ecological knowledge. Bundles of perceived ecosystem services and impacts, in relation to ecological knowledge, emerged as social representation on how residents relate to, understand, and perceive landscapes. Conclusions Our findings provide insight into the interactions between ecological knowledge systems and their role in shaping perceptions of local communities about protected areas. These results are expected to inform protected area management and landscape sustainability.Peer reviewe

GIS modeling of urbanization impacts on natural resources, Dakota County, Minnesota

This research focused on the impacts of urbanization in natural resources and land-cover changes due to urban development in Dakota County, Minnesota. An existing planning guide, the 2030 Regional Development Framework (2030 RDF) for the Twin Cities Metro Area, was analyzed and employed as a reference in this research. Geographic information systems (GIS) technology was used to help determine characteristics of urban land-cover changes, such as population change, land cover changes, and the environmental impacts on natural resources caused by urban development. Furthermore, land suitability modeling was utilized to analyze possible future development, from the perspectives of urban expansion and agricultural land protection. FRAGSTATS, a tool for ecological landscape analysis based on GIS, was also used to investigate patterns of urbanization. Integration of social and spatial data provided an effective mechanism to explore relationships between population increase and landscape change

Cross-sectoral resource management: How forest management alternatives affect the provision of biomass and other ecosystem services

Integrated forest management is faced with the challenge that the contribution of forests to economic and ecological planning targets must be assessed in a socio-ecological system context. This paper introduces a way to model spatio-temporal dynamics of biomass production at a regional scale in order to derive land use strategies that enhance biomass provision and avoid trade-offs for other ecosystem services. The software platform GISCAME was employed to bridge the gap between local land management decisions and regional planning by linking growth and yield models with an integrative mesoscale modeling and assessment approach. The model region is located in Saxony, Germany. Five scenarios were simulated, which aimed at testing different alternatives for adapted land use in the context of climate change and increasing biomass demand. The results showed, for example, that forest conversion towards climate-change-adapted forest types had positive effects on ecological integrity and landscape aesthetics. In contrast, negative impacts on landscape aesthetics must be expected if agricultural sites were converted into short rotation coppices. Uncertainties with stem from assumptions regarding growth and yield models were discussed. Future developmental steps which consider, for example, accessibility of the resources were identified

Changing Shades of Green: The environmental and cultural impacts of climate change in Ireland

This report, as the reader will see, follows two distinct but intertwined paths. One path, rooted in science, outlines the ecological impacts of climate change in Ireland. We describe climate changes witnessed in the later decades of the 20th century and the most likely scenarios for change in this current century. We do not offer a primer on climate science, nor do we provide great detail on the methodology used to downscale global climate models for modeling the Irish climate. We instead attempt to tell a simple story of how the Irish climate is likely to change, relying exclusively on peer-reviewed scientific literature. The other path, rooted in culture, describes how these ecological changes may affect the look and feel of the Irish landscape, and how they may affect life in Ireland. These sections do not rely on peer-reviewed literature; they instead rely on an intuitive sense of those things that matter greatly to the Irish. We include discussions of music and poetry because they explain the intense connections between the Irish landscape and Irish culture and how changes to one can affect the other

Changing Shades of Green: The environmental and cultural impacts of climate change in Ireland

This report, as the reader will see, follows two distinct but intertwined paths. One path, rooted in science, outlines the ecological impacts of climate change in Ireland. We describe climate changes witnessed in the later decades of the 20th century and the most likely scenarios for change in this current century. We do not offer a primer on climate science, nor do we provide great detail on the methodology used to downscale global climate models for modeling the Irish climate. We instead attempt to tell a simple story of how the Irish climate is likely to change, relying exclusively on peer-reviewed scientific literature. The other path, rooted in culture, describes how these ecological changes may affect the look and feel of the Irish landscape, and how they may affect life in Ireland. These sections do not rely on peer-reviewed literature; they instead rely on an intuitive sense of those things that matter greatly to the Irish. We include discussions of music and poetry because they explain the intense connections between the Irish landscape and Irish culture and how changes to one can affect the other

Tools for Assessing Climate Impacts on Fish and Wildlife

Climate change is already affecting many fish and wildlife populations. Managing these populations requires an understanding of the nature, magnitude, and distribution of current and future climate impacts. Scientists and managers have at their disposal a wide array of models for projecting climate impacts that can be used to build such an understanding. Here, we provide a broad overview of the types of models available for forecasting the effects of climate change on key processes that affect fish and wildlife habitat (hydrology, fire, and vegetation), as well as on individual species distributions and populations. We present a framework for how climate-impacts modeling can be used to address management concerns, providing examples of model-based assessments of climate impacts on salmon populations in the Pacific Northwest, fire regimes in the boreal region of Canada, prairies and savannas in the Willamette Valley-Puget Sound Trough-Georgia Basin ecoregion, and marten Martes americana populations in the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada. We also highlight some key limitations of these models and discuss how such limitations should be managed. We conclude with a general discussion of how these models can be integrated into fish and wildlife management

Eco-hydrology of dynamic wetlands in an Australian agricultural landscape: a whole of system approach for understanding climate change impacts

Increasing rates of water extraction and regulation of hydrologic processes, coupled with destruction of natural vegetation, pollution and climate change, are jeopardizing the future persistence of wetlands and the ecological and socio-economic functions they support. Globally, it is estimated that 50% of wetlands have been lost since the 1900’s, with agricultural changes being the main cause. In some agricultural areas of Australia, losses as high as 98% have occurred. Wetlands remaining in agricultural landscapes suffer degradation and their resilience and ability to continue functioning under hydrologic and land use changes resulting from climate change may be significantly inhibited. However, information on floodplain wetlands is sparse and knowledge of how ecological functioning and resilience may change under future land use intensification and climate change is lacking in many landscapes. These knowledge gaps pose significant problems for the future sustainable management of biodiversity and agricultural activities which rely on the important services supplied by wetland ecosystems. This research evaluates the impact that hydrology and land use has on the perennial vegetation associated with wetlands in an agricultural landscape, the Condamine Catchment of southeast Queensland, Australia. A geographical information system (GIS) was used to measure hydrological and land use variables and a bayesian modeling averaging approach was used to generate generalised linear models for vegetation response variables. Connectivity with the river and hydrological variability had consistently significant positive relationships with vegetation cover and abundance. Land use practices such as, irrigated agriculture and grazing had consistently significant negative impacts. Consequently, to understand how climate change will impact on the ecohydrological functioning of wetlands, both hydrological and land use changes need to be considered. Results from this research will now be used to investigate how resilient these systems will be to different potential scenarios of climate change

Ex Ante Impact Assessment of Policies Affecting Land Use, Part B: Application of the Analytical Framework

The use of science-based tools for impact assessment has increasingly gained focus in addressing the complexity of interactions between environment, society, and economy. For integrated assessment of policies affecting land use, an analytical framework was developed. The aim of our work was to apply the analytical framework for specific scenario cases and in combination with quantitative and qualitative application methods. The analytical framework was tested for two cases involving the ex ante impact assessment of: (1) a European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) financial reform scenario employing a modeling approach and combined with a comprehensive indicator analysis and valuation; and (2) a regional bioenergy policy scenario, employing a fully participatory approach. The results showed that European land use in general is less sensitive to changes in the Common Agricultural Policy, but in the context of regions there can be significant impacts on the functions of land use. In general, the implementation of the analytical framework for impact assessment proved to be doable with both methods, i.e., with the quantitative modeling and with the qualitative participatory approach. A key advantage of using the system of linked quantitative models is that it makes possible the simultaneous consideration of all relevant sectors of the economy without abstaining from a great level of detail for sectors of particular interest. Other advantages lie in the incontestable character of the results. Based on neutral, existing data with a fixed set of settings and regions, an absolute comparability and reproducibility throughout Europe can be maintained. Analyzing the pros and cons of both approaches showed that they could be used complementarily rather than be seen as competing alternatives