Modeling dependent competing failure processes with degradation-shock dependence

In this paper, we develop a new reliability model for dependent competing failure processes (DCFPs), which accounts for degradation-shock dependence. This is a type of dependence where random shock processes are influenced by degradation processes. The degradation-shock dependence is modeled by assuming that the intensity function of the nonhomogeneous Poisson process describing the random shock processes is dependent on the degradation processes. The dependence effect is modeled with reference to a classification of the random shocks in three “zones” according to their magnitudes, damage zone, fatal zone, and safety zone, with different effects on the system's failure behavior. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this type of dependence has not yet been considered in reliability models. Monte Carlo simulation is used to calculate the system reliability. A realistic application is presented with regards to the dependent failure behavior of a sliding spool, which is subject to two dependent competing failure processes, wear and clamping stagnation. It is shown that the developed model is capable of describing the dependent competing failure behaviors and their dependence

Reliability and Condition-Based Maintenance Analysis of Deteriorating Systems Subject to Generalized Mixed Shock Model

For successful commercialization of evolving devices (e.g., micro-electro-mechanical systems, and biomedical devices), there must be new research focusing on reliability models and analysis tools that can assist manufacturing and maintenance of these devices. These advanced systems may experience multiple failure processes that compete against each other. Two major failure processes are identified to be deteriorating or degradation processes (e.g., wear, fatigue, erosion, corrosion) and random shocks. When these failure processes are dependent, it is a challenging problem to predict reliability of complex systems. This research aims to develop reliability models by exploring new aspects of dependency between competing risks of degradation-based and shock-based failure considering a generalized mixed shock model, and to develop new and effective condition-based maintenance policies based on the developed reliability models. In this research, different aspects of dependency are explored to accurately estimate the reliability of complex systems. When the degradation rate is accelerated as a result of withstanding a particular shock pattern, we develop reliability models with a changing degradation rate for four different shock patterns. When the hard failure threshold reduces due to changes in degradation, we investigate reliability models considering the dependence of the hard failure threshold on the degradation level for two different scenarios. More generally, when the degradation rate and the hard failure threshold can simultaneously transition multiple times, we propose a rich reliability model for a new generalized mixed shock model that is a combination of extreme shock model, δ-shock model and run shock model. This general assumption reflects complex behaviors associated with modern systems and structures that experience multiple sources of external shocks. Based on the developed reliability models, we introduce new condition-based maintenance strategies by including various maintenance actions (e.g., corrective replacement, preventive replacement, and imperfect repair) to minimize the expected long-run average maintenance cost rate. The decisions for maintenance actions are made based on the health condition of systems that can be observed through periodic inspection. The reliability and maintenance models developed in this research can provide timely and effective tools for decision-makers in manufacturing to economically optimize operational decisions for improving reliability, quality and productivity.Industrial Engineering, Department o

A Condition-Based Maintenance Model for Assets with Accelerated Deterioration Due to Fault Propagation

Complex industrial assets such as power transformers are subject to accelerated deterioration when one of its constituent component malfunctions, affecting the condition of other components, which is a phenomenon called fault propagation. In this paper, we present a novel approach for optimizing condition-based maintenance policies for such assets by modelling their deterioration as a multiple dependent deterioration path process. The aim of the policy is to replace the malfunctioned component and mitigate accelerated deterioration at minimal impact to the business. The maintenance model provides guidance on determining inspection and maintenance strategies to optimize asset availability and operational cost.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from IEEE via http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/TR.2015.243913

Proteostasis collapse is a driver of cell aging and death.

What molecular processes drive cell aging and death? Here, we model how proteostasis-i.e., the folding, chaperoning, and maintenance of protein function-collapses with age from slowed translation and cumulative oxidative damage. Irreparably damaged proteins accumulate with age, increasingly distracting the chaperones from folding the healthy proteins the cell needs. The tipping point to death occurs when replenishing good proteins no longer keeps up with depletion from misfolding, aggregation, and damage. The model agrees with experiments in the worm Caenorhabditis elegans that show the following: Life span shortens nonlinearly with increased temperature or added oxidant concentration, and life span increases in mutants having more chaperones or proteasomes. It predicts observed increases in cellular oxidative damage with age and provides a mechanism for the Gompertz-like rise in mortality observed in humans and other organisms. Overall, the model shows how the instability of proteins sets the rate at which damage accumulates with age and upends a cell's normal proteostasis balance

Component Maintenance Strategies and Risk Analysis for Random Shock Effects Considering Maintenance Costs

Maintenance can improve a system’s reliability in a long operation period or when a component has failed. The reliability modeling method that uses the stochastic process degradation model to describe the system degradation process has been widely used. However, the existing reliability models established using stochastic processes only consider the internal degradation process, and do not fully consider the impact of external random shocks on their reliability modeling. Furthermore, the existing theory of importance does not consider the actual factors of maintenance cost. In this paper, based on the reliability modeling of random processes, the degradation rate under the influence of random shocks is introduced into the time scale function to solve the impact of random shocks on product reliability, and two cost importance measures are proposed to guide the maintenance selection of the components under limited resources in the system.Finally, a subsystem of an aircraft hydraulic system is analyzed to verify the proposed method’s performance

A dependent complex degrading system with non-periodic inspection times

This paper analyses a system subject to multiple dependent degradation processes. Degradation processes start at random times following a non homogeneous Poisson process and next dependently propagate. The growth of these degradation processes is modeled using gamma increments. We assume that the arrival of a new process to the system triggers the degradation rate of the processes present in the system. Under this framework, the analytic expression of the system reliability is obtained and bounds of the system reliability are also analyzed. Furthermore, the system is inspected at certain times. Information on the system health is recorded at these inspection times and the decision on performing maintenance actions on the system is taken at these times. We consider in this paper a dynamic inspection policy since the information that becomes available in an inspection time is taken into account to schedule the next inspection time. The maintenance cost for this system is dealt with the use of semi-regenerative process. Numerical examples are performed to illustrate the analytic expressions.Comment: 31 pages, 10 figure