Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance, In: Handbook of Computational Economics II: Agent-Based Computational Economics, edited by Leigh Tesfatsion and Ken Judd , Elsevier, Amsterdam 2006, pp.1109-1186.

This chapter surveys work on dynamic heterogeneous agent models (HAMs) in economics and finance. Emphasis is given to simple models that, at least to some extent, are tractable by analytic methods in combination with computational tools. Most of these models are behavioral models with boundedly rational agents using different heuristics or rule of thumb strategies that may not be perfect, but perform reasonably well. Typically these models are highly nonlinear, e.g. due to evolutionary switching between strategies, and exhibit a wide range of dynamical behavior ranging from a unique stable steady state to complex, chaotic dynamics. Aggregation of simple interactions at the micro level may generate sophisticated structure at the macro level. Simple HAMs can explain important observed stylized facts in financial time series, such as excess volatility, high trading volume, temporary bubbles and trend following, sudden crashes and mean reversion, clustered volatility and fat tails in the returns distribution.

Nonlinearity and chaos in economic models: implications for policy decisions

This survey paper discusses the policy implications that can be expected from the recent research on nonlinearity and chaos in economic models. Expected policy implications are interpreted as a driving force behind the recent proliferation of research in this area. In general, it appears that no new justification for policy intervention is developed in models of endogenous fluctuations, although this conclusion depends in part on the definition of equilibrium. When justified, however, policy tends to be very effective in these models.Macroeconomics ; Economic stabilization

Boolean Delay Equations: A simple way of looking at complex systems

Boolean Delay Equations (BDEs) are semi-discrete dynamical models with Boolean-valued variables that evolve in continuous time. Systems of BDEs can be classified into conservative or dissipative, in a manner that parallels the classification of ordinary or partial differential equations. Solutions to certain conservative BDEs exhibit growth of complexity in time. They represent therewith metaphors for biological evolution or human history. Dissipative BDEs are structurally stable and exhibit multiple equilibria and limit cycles, as well as more complex, fractal solution sets, such as Devil's staircases and ``fractal sunbursts``. All known solutions of dissipative BDEs have stationary variance. BDE systems of this type, both free and forced, have been used as highly idealized models of climate change on interannual, interdecadal and paleoclimatic time scales. BDEs are also being used as flexible, highly efficient models of colliding cascades in earthquake modeling and prediction, as well as in genetics. In this paper we review the theory of systems of BDEs and illustrate their applications to climatic and solid earth problems. The former have used small systems of BDEs, while the latter have used large networks of BDEs. We moreover introduce BDEs with an infinite number of variables distributed in space (``partial BDEs``) and discuss connections with other types of dynamical systems, including cellular automata and Boolean networks. This research-and-review paper concludes with a set of open questions.Comment: Latex, 67 pages with 15 eps figures. Revised version, in particular the discussion on partial BDEs is updated and enlarge

E&F Chaos: a user friendly software package for nonlinear economic dynamics

The use of nonlinear dynamic models in economics and finance has expanded rapidly in the last two decades. Numerical simulation is crucial in the investigation of nonlinear systems. E&F Chaos is an easy-to-use and freely available software package for simulation of nonlinear dynamic models to investigate stability of steady states and the presence of periodic orbits and chaos by standard numerical simulation techniques such as time series, phase plots, bifurcation diagrams, Lyapunov exponent plots, basin boundary plots and graphical analysis. The package contains many well-known nonlinear models, including applications in economics and finance, and is easy to use for non-specialists. New models and extensions or variations are easy to implement within the software package without the use of a compiler or other software. The software is demonstrated by investigating the dynamical behavior of some simple examples of the familiar cobweb model, including an extension with heterogeneous agents and asynchronous updating of strategies. Simulations with the E&F chaos software quickly provide information about local and global dynamics and easily lead to challenging questions for further mathematical analysis.

A nonlinear structural model for volatility clustering

A simple nonlinear structural model of endogenous belief heterogeneity is proposed. News about fundamentals is an IID random process, but nevertheless volatility clustering occurs as an endogenous phenomenon caused by the interaction between different types of traders, fundamentalists and technical analysts. The belief types are driven by adaptive, evolutionary dynamics according to the success of the prediction strategies as measured by accumulated realized profits, conditioned upon price deviations from the rational expectations fundamental price. Asset prices switch irregularly between two different regimes --periods of small price fluctuations and periods of large price changes triggered by random news and reinforced by technical trading -- thus, creating time varying volatility similar to that observed in real financial data.

Localization and Pattern Formation in Quantum Physics. I. Phenomena of Localization

In these two related parts we present a set of methods, analytical and numerical, which can illuminate the behaviour of quantum system, especially in the complex systems. The key points demonstrating advantages of this approach are: (i) effects of localization of possible quantum states, more proper than "gaussian-like states"; (ii) effects of non-perturbative multiscales which cannot be calculated by means of perturbation approaches; (iii) effects of formation of complex quantum patterns from localized modes or classification and possible control of the full zoo of quantum states, including (meta) stable localized patterns (waveletons). We'll consider calculations of Wigner functions as the solution of Wigner-Moyal-von Neumann equation(s) corresponding to polynomial Hamiltonians. Modeling demonstrates the appearance of (meta) stable patterns generated by high-localized (coherent) structures or entangled/chaotic behaviour. We can control the type of behaviour on the level of reduced algebraical variational system. At the end we presented the qualitative definition of the Quantum Objects in comparison with their Classical Counterparts, which natural domain of definition is the category of multiscale/multiresolution decompositions according to the action of internal/hidden symmetry of the proper realization of scales of functional spaces. It gives rational natural explanation of such pure quantum effects as ``self-interaction''(self-interference) and instantaneous quantum interaction.Comment: LaTeX2e, spie.cls, 13 pages, 15 figures, submitted to Proc. of SPIE Meeting, The Nature of Light: What is a Photon? Optics & Photonics, SP200, San Diego, CA, July-August, 200