Policy and Place: A Spatial Data Science Framework for Research and Decision-Making

abstract: A major challenge in health-related policy and program evaluation research is attributing underlying causal relationships where complicated processes may exist in natural or quasi-experimental settings. Spatial interaction and heterogeneity between units at individual or group levels can violate both components of the Stable-Unit-Treatment-Value-Assumption (SUTVA) that are core to the counterfactual framework, making treatment effects difficult to assess. New approaches are needed in health studies to develop spatially dynamic causal modeling methods to both derive insights from data that are sensitive to spatial differences and dependencies, and also be able to rely on a more robust, dynamic technical infrastructure needed for decision-making. To address this gap with a focus on causal applications theoretically, methodologically and technologically, I (1) develop a theoretical spatial framework (within single-level panel econometric methodology) that extends existing theories and methods of causal inference, which tend to ignore spatial dynamics; (2) demonstrate how this spatial framework can be applied in empirical research; and (3) implement a new spatial infrastructure framework that integrates and manages the required data for health systems evaluation. The new spatially explicit counterfactual framework considers how spatial effects impact treatment choice, treatment variation, and treatment effects. To illustrate this new methodological framework, I first replicate a classic quasi-experimental study that evaluates the effect of drinking age policy on mortality in the United States from 1970 to 1984, and further extend it with a spatial perspective. In another example, I evaluate food access dynamics in Chicago from 2007 to 2014 by implementing advanced spatial analytics that better account for the complex patterns of food access, and quasi-experimental research design to distill the impact of the Great Recession on the foodscape. Inference interpretation is sensitive to both research design framing and underlying processes that drive geographically distributed relationships. Finally, I advance a new Spatial Data Science Infrastructure to integrate and manage data in dynamic, open environments for public health systems research and decision- making. I demonstrate an infrastructure prototype in a final case study, developed in collaboration with health department officials and community organizations.Dissertation/ThesisDoctoral Dissertation Geography 201

Capturing time in space : Dynamic analysis of accessibility and mobility to support spatial planning with open data and tools

Understanding the spatial patterns of accessibility and mobility are a key (factor) to comprehend the functioning of our societies. Hence, their analysis has become increasingly important for both scientific research and spatial planning. Spatial accessibility and mobility are closely related concepts, as accessibility describes the potential to move by modeling, whereas spatial mobility describes the realized movements of individuals. While both spatial accessibility and mobility have been widely studied, the understanding of how time and temporal change affects accessibility and mobility has been rather limited this far. In the era of ‘big data’, the wealth of temporally sensitive spatial data has made it possible, better than ever, to capture and understand the temporal realities of spatial accessibility and mobility, and hence start to understand better the dynamics of our societies and complex living environment. In this thesis, I aim to develop novel approaches and methods to study the spatio-temporal realities of our living environments via concepts of accessibility and mobility: How people can access places, how they actually move, and how they use space. I inspect these dynamics on several temporal granularities, covering hourly, daily, monthly, and yearly observations and analyses. With novel big data sources, the methodological development and careful assessment of the information extracted from them is extremely important as they are increasingly used to guide decision-making. Hence, I investigate the opportunities and pitfalls of different data sources and methodological approaches in this work. Contextually, I aim to reveal the role of time and the mode of transportation in relation to spatial accessibility and mobility, in both urban and rural environments, and discuss their role in spatial planning. I base my findings on five scientific articles on studies carried out in: Peruvian Amazonia; national parks of South Africa and Finland; Tallinn, Estonia; and Helsinki metropolitan area, Finland. I use and combine data from various sources to extract knowledge from them, including GPS devices; transportation schedules; mobile phones; social media; statistics; land-use data; and surveys. My results demonstrate that spatial accessibility and mobility are highly dependent on time, having clear diurnal and seasonal changes. Hence, it is important to consider temporality when analyzing accessibility, as people, transport and activities all fluctuate as a function of time that affects e.g. the spatial equality of reaching services. In addition, different transport modes should be considered as there are clear differences between them. Furthermore, I show that, in addition to the observed spatial population dynamics, also nature’s own dynamism affects accessibility and mobility on a regional level due to the seasonal variation in river-levels. Also, the visitation patterns in national parks vary significantly over time, as can be observed from social media. Methodologically, this work demonstrates that with a sophisticated fusion of methods and data, it is possible to assess; enrich; harmonize; and increase the spatial and temporal accuracy of data that can be used to better inform spatial planning and decision-making. Finally, I wish to emphasize the importance of bringing scientific knowledge and tools into practice. Hence, all the tools, analytical workflows, and data are openly available for everyone whenever possible. This approach has helped to bring the knowledge and tools into practice with relevant stakeholders in relation to spatial planning

Revisiting Urban Dynamics through Social Urban Data:

The study of dynamic spatial and social phenomena in cities has evolved rapidly in the recent years, yielding new insights into urban dynamics. This evolution is strongly related to the emergence of new sources of data for cities (e.g. sensors, mobile phones, online social media etc.), which have potential to capture dimensions of social and geographic systems that are difficult to detect in traditional urban data (e.g. census data). However, as the available sources increase in number, the produced datasets increase in diversity. Besides heterogeneity, emerging social urban data are also characterized by multidimensionality. The latter means that the information they contain may simultaneously address spatial, social, temporal, and topical attributes of people and places. Therefore, integration and geospatial (statistical) analysis of multidimensional data remain a challenge. The question which, then, arises is how to integrate heterogeneous and multidimensional social urban data into the analysis of human activity dynamics in cities? To address the above challenge, this thesis proposes the design of a framework of novel methods and tools for the integration, visualization, and exploratory analysis of large-scale and heterogeneous social urban data to facilitate the understanding of urban dynamics. The research focuses particularly on the spatiotemporal dynamics of human activity in cities, as inferred from different sources of social urban data. The main objective is to provide new means to enable the incorporation of heterogeneous social urban data into city analytics, and to explore the influence of emerging data sources on the understanding of cities and their dynamics.  In mitigating the various heterogeneities, a methodology for the transformation of heterogeneous data for cities into multidimensional linked urban data is, therefore, designed. The methodology follows an ontology-based data integration approach and accommodates a variety of semantic (web) and linked data technologies. A use case of data interlinkage is used as a demonstrator of the proposed methodology. The use case employs nine real-world large-scale spatiotemporal data sets from three public transportation organizations, covering the entire public transport network of the city of Athens, Greece.  To further encourage the consumption of linked urban data by planners and policy-makers, a set of webbased tools for the visual representation of ontologies and linked data is designed and developed. The tools – comprising the OSMoSys framework – provide graphical user interfaces for the visual representation, browsing, and interactive exploration of both ontologies and linked urban data.   After introducing methods and tools for data integration, visual exploration of linked urban data, and derivation of various attributes of people and places from different social urban data, it is examined how they can all be combined into a single platform. To achieve this, a novel web-based system (coined SocialGlass) for the visualization and exploratory analysis of human activity dynamics is designed. The system combines data from various geo-enabled social media (i.e. Twitter, Instagram, Sina Weibo) and LBSNs (i.e. Foursquare), sensor networks (i.e. GPS trackers, Wi-Fi cameras), and conventional socioeconomic urban records, but also has the potential to employ custom datasets from other sources. A real-world case study is used as a demonstrator of the capacities of the proposed web-based system in the study of urban dynamics. The case study explores the potential impact of a city-scale event (i.e. the Amsterdam Light festival 2015) on the activity and movement patterns of different social categories (i.e. residents, non-residents, foreign tourists), as compared to their daily and hourly routines in the periods  before and after the event. The aim of the case study is twofold. First, to assess the potential and limitations of the proposed system and, second, to investigate how different sources of social urban data could influence the understanding of urban dynamics. The contribution of this doctoral thesis is the design and development of a framework of novel methods and tools that enables the fusion of heterogeneous multidimensional data for cities. The framework could foster planners, researchers, and policy makers to capitalize on the new possibilities given by emerging social urban data. Having a deep understanding of the spatiotemporal dynamics of cities and, especially of the activity and movement behavior of people, is expected to play a crucial role in addressing the challenges of rapid urbanization. Overall, the framework proposed by this research has potential to open avenues of quantitative explorations of urban dynamics, contributing to the development of a new science of cities

Revisiting Urban Dynamics through Social Urban Data

The study of dynamic spatial and social phenomena in cities has evolved rapidly in the recent years, yielding new insights into urban dynamics. This evolution is strongly related to the emergence of new sources of data for cities (e.g. sensors, mobile phones, online social media etc.), which have potential to capture dimensions of social and geographic systems that are difficult to detect in traditional urban data (e.g. census data). However, as the available sources increase in number, the produced datasets increase in diversity. Besides heterogeneity, emerging social urban data are also characterized by multidimensionality. The latter means that the information they contain may simultaneously address spatial, social, temporal, and topical attributes of people and places. Therefore, integration and geospatial (statistical) analysis of multidimensional data remain a challenge. The question which, then, arises is how to integrate heterogeneous and multidimensional social urban data into the analysis of human activity dynamics in cities?  To address the above challenge, this thesis proposes the design of a framework of novel methods and tools for the integration, visualization, and exploratory analysis of large-scale and heterogeneous social urban data to facilitate the understanding of urban dynamics. The research focuses particularly on the spatiotemporal dynamics of human activity in cities, as inferred from different sources of social urban data. The main objective is to provide new means to enable the incorporation of heterogeneous social urban data into city analytics, and to explore the influence of emerging data sources on the understanding of cities and their dynamics.  In mitigating the various heterogeneities, a methodology for the transformation of heterogeneous data for cities into multidimensional linked urban data is, therefore, designed. The methodology follows an ontology-based data integration approach and accommodates a variety of semantic (web) and linked data technologies. A use case of data interlinkage is used as a demonstrator of the proposed methodology. The use case employs nine real-world large-scale spatiotemporal data sets from three public transportation organizations, covering the entire public transport network of the city of Athens, Greece.  To further encourage the consumption of linked urban data by planners and policy-makers, a set of webbased tools for the visual representation of ontologies and linked data is designed and developed. The tools – comprising the OSMoSys framework – provide graphical user interfaces for the visual representation, browsing, and interactive exploration of both ontologies and linked urban data.  After introducing methods and tools for data integration, visual exploration of linked urban data, and derivation of various attributes of people and places from different social urban data, it is examined how they can all be combined into a single platform. To achieve this, a novel web-based system (coined SocialGlass) for the visualization and exploratory analysis of human activity dynamics is designed. The system combines data from various geo-enabled social media (i.e. Twitter, Instagram, Sina Weibo) and LBSNs (i.e. Foursquare), sensor networks (i.e. GPS trackers, Wi-Fi cameras), and conventional socioeconomic urban records, but also has the potential to employ custom datasets from other sources.  A real-world case study is used as a demonstrator of the capacities of the proposed web-based system in the study of urban dynamics. The case study explores the potential impact of a city-scale event (i.e. the Amsterdam Light festival 2015) on the activity and movement patterns of different social categories (i.e. residents, non-residents, foreign tourists), as compared to their daily and hourly routines in the periods  before and after the event. The aim of the case study is twofold. First, to assess the potential and limitations of the proposed system and, second, to investigate how different sources of social urban data could influence the understanding of urban dynamics.  The contribution of this doctoral thesis is the design and development of a framework of novel methods and tools that enables the fusion of heterogeneous multidimensional data for cities. The framework could foster planners, researchers, and policy makers to capitalize on the new possibilities given by emerging social urban data. Having a deep understanding of the spatiotemporal dynamics of cities and, especially of the activity and movement behavior of people, is expected to play a crucial role in addressing the challenges of rapid urbanization. Overall, the framework proposed by this research has potential to open avenues of quantitative explorations of urban dynamics, contributing to the development of a new science of cities

Airborne and Terrestrial Laser Scanning Data for the Assessment of Standing and Lying Deadwood: Current Situation and New Perspectives

LiDAR technology is finding uses in the forest sector, not only for surveys in producing forests but also as a tool to gain a deeper understanding of the importance of the three-dimensional component of forest environments. Developments of platforms and sensors in the last decades have highlighted the capacity of this technology to catch relevant details, even at finer scales. This drives its usage towards more ecological topics and applications for forest management. In recent years, nature protection policies have been focusing on deadwood as a key element for the health of forest ecosystems and wide-scale assessments are necessary for the planning process on a landscape scale. Initial studies showed promising results in the identification of bigger deadwood components (e.g., snags, logs, stumps), employing data not specifically collected for the purpose. Nevertheless, many efforts should still be made to transfer the available methodologies to an operational level. Newly available platforms (e.g., Mobile Laser Scanner) and sensors (e.g., Multispectral Laser Scanner) might provide new opportunities for this field of study in the near future

Satellite Earth observation to support sustainable rural development

Traditional survey and census data are not sufficient for measuring poverty and progress towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Satellite Earth Observation (EO) is a novel data source that has considerable potential to augment data for sustainable rural development. To realise the full potential of EO data as a proxy for socioeconomic conditions, end-users – both expert and non-expert – must be able to make the right decisions about what data to use and how to use it. In this review, we present an outline of what needs to be done to operationalise, and increase confidence in, EO data for sustainable rural development and monitoring the socioeconomic targets of the SDGs. We find that most approaches developed so far operate at a single spatial scale, for a single point in time, and proxy only one socioeconomic metric. Moreover, research has been geographically focused across three main regions: West Africa, East Africa, and the Indian Subcontinent, which underscores a need to conduct research into the utility of EO for monitoring poverty across more regions, to identify transferable EO proxies and methods. A variety of data from different EO platforms have been integrated into such analyses, with Landsat and MODIS datasets proving to be the most utilised to-date. Meanwhile, there is an apparent underutilisation of fusion capabilities with disparate datasets, in terms of (i) other EO datasets such as RADAR data, and (ii) non-traditional datasets such as geospatial population layers. We identify five key areas requiring further development to encourage operational uptake of EO for proxying socioeconomic conditions and conclude by linking these with the technical and implementational challenges identified across the review to make explicit recommendations. This review contributes towards developing transparent data systems to assemble the high-quality data required to monitor socioeconomic conditions across rural spaces at fine temporal and spatial scales

Use of a Bayesian belief network to predict the impacts of commercializing non-timber forest products on livelihoods

Commercialization of non-timber forest products (NTFPs) has been widely promoted as a means of sustainably developing tropical forest resources, in a way that promotes forest conservation while supporting rural livelihoods. However, in practice, NTFP commercialization has often failed to deliver the expected benefits. Progress in analyzing the causes of such failure has been hindered by the lack of a suitable framework for the analysis of NTFP case studies, and by the lack of predictive theory. We address these needs by developing a probabilistic model based on a livelihood framework, enabling the impact of NTFP commercialization on livelihoods to be predicted. The framework considers five types of capital asset needed to support livelihoods: natural, human, social, physical, and financial. Commercialization of NTFPs is represented in the model as the conversion of one form of capital asset into another, which is influenced by a variety of socio-economic, environmental, and political factors. Impacts on livelihoods are determined by the availability of the five types of assets following commercialization. The model, implemented as a Bayesian Belief Network, was tested using data from participatory research into 19 NTFP case studies undertaken in Mexico and Bolivia. The model provides a novel tool for diagnosing the causes of success and failure in NTFP commercialization, and can be used to explore the potential impacts of policy options and other interventions on livelihoods. The potential value of this approach for the development of NTFP theory is discussed