Development of Agent-Based Simulation Models for Software Evolution

Software ist ein Bestandteil des alltäglichen Lebens für uns geworden. Dies ist auch mit zunehmenden Anforderungen an die Anpassungsfähigkeit an sich schnell ändernde Umgebungen verbunden. Dieser evolutionäre Prozess der Software wird von einem dem Software Engineering zugehörigen Forschungsbereich, der Softwareevolution, untersucht. Die Änderungen an einer Software über die Zeit werden durch die Arbeit der Entwickler verursacht. Aus diesem Grund stellt das Entwicklerverhalten einen zentralen Bestandteil dar, wenn man die Evolution eines Softwareprojekts analysieren möchte. Für die Analyse realer Projekte steht eine Vielzahl von Open Source Projekten frei zur Verfügung. Für die Simulation von Softwareprojekten benutzen wir Multiagentensysteme, da wir damit das Verhalten der Entwickler detailliert beschrieben können. In dieser Dissertation entwickeln wir mehrere, aufeinander aufbauende, agentenbasierte Modelle, die unterschiedliche Aspekte der Software Evolution abdecken. Wir beginnen mit einem einfachen Modell ohne Abhängigkeiten zwischen den Agenten, mit dem man allein durch das Entwicklerverhalten das Wachstum eines realen Projekts simulativ reproduzieren kann. Darauffolgende Modelle wurden um weitere Agenten, zum Beispiel unterschiedliche Entwickler-Typen und Fehler, sowie Abhängigkeiten zwischen den Agenten ergänzt. Mit diesen erweiterten Modellen lassen sich unterschiedliche Fragestellungen betreffend Software Evolution simulativ beantworten. Eine dieser Fragen beantwortet zum Beispiel was mit der Software bezüglich ihrer Qualität passiert, wenn der Hauptentwickler das Projekt plötzlich verlässt. Das komplexeste Modell ist in der Lage Software Refactorings zu simulieren und nutzt dazu Graph Transformationen. Die Simulation erzeugt als Ausgabe einen Graphen, der die Software repräsentiert. Als Repräsentant der Software dient der Change-Coupling-Graph, der für die Simulation von Refactorings erweitert wird. Dieser Graph wird in dieser Arbeit als \emph{Softwaregraph} bezeichnet. Um die verschiedenen Modelle zu parametrisieren haben wir unterschiedliche Mining-Werkzeuge entwickelt. Diese Werkzeuge ermöglichen es uns ein Modell mit projektspezifischen Parametern zu instanziieren, ein Modell mit einem Snapshot des analysierten Projektes zu instanziieren oder Transformationsregeln zu parametrisieren, die für die Modellierung von Refactorings benötigt werden. Die Ergebnisse aus drei Fallstudien zeigen unter anderem, dass unser Ansatz agentenbasierte Simulation für die Vorhersage der Evolution von Software Projekten eine geeignete Wahl ist. Des Weiteren konnten wir zeigen, dass mit einer geeigneten Parameterwahl unterschiedliche Wachstumstrends der realen Software simulativ reproduzierbar sind. Die besten Ergebnisse für den simulierten Softwaregraphen erhalten wir, wenn wir die Simulation nach einer initialen Phase mit einem Snapshot der realen Software starten. Die Refactorings betreffend konnten wir zeigen, dass das Modell basierend auf Graph Transformationen anwendbar ist und dass das simulierte Wachstum sich damit leicht verbessern lässt.Software has become a part of everyday life for us. This is also associated with increasing requirements for adaptability to rapidly changing environments. This evolutionary process of software is being studied by a software engineering related research area, called software evolution. The changes to a software over time are caused by the work of the developers. For this reason, the developer contribution behavior is central for analyzing the evolution of a software project. For the analysis of real projects, a variety of open source projects is freely available. For the simulation of software projects, we use multiagent systems because this allows us to describe the behavior of the developers in detail. In this thesis, we develop several successive agent-based models that cover different aspects of software evolution. We start with a simple model with no dependencies between the agents that can simulative reproduce the growth of a real project solely based on the developer’s contribution behavior. Subsequent models were supplemented by additional agents, such as different developer types and bugs, as well as dependencies between the agents. These advanced models can then be used to answer different questions concerning software evolution simulative. For example, one of these questions answers what happens to the software in terms of quality when the core developer suddenly leaves the project. The most complex model can simulate software refactorings based on graph transformations. The simulation output is a graph which represents the software. The representative of the software is the change coupling graph, which is extended for the simulation of refactorings. In this thesis, this graph is denoted as \emph{software graph}. To parameterize these models, we have developed different mining tools. These tools allow us to instantiate a model with project-specific parameters, to instantiate a model with a snapshot of the analyzed project, or to parameterize the transformation rules required to model refactorings. The results of three case studies show, among other things, that our approach to use agent-based simulation is an appropriate choice for predicting the evolution of software projects. Furthermore, we were able to show that different growth trends of the real software can be reproduced simulative with a suitable selection of simulation parameters. The best results for the simulated software graph are obtained when we start the simulation after an initial phase with a snapshot of real software. Regarding refactorings, we were able to show that the model based on graph transformations is applicable and that it can slightly improve the simulated growth

“It Takes All Kinds”: A Simulation Modeling Perspective on Motivation and Coordination in Libre Software Development Projects

This paper presents a stochastic simulation model to study implications of the mechanisms by which individual software developers’ efforts are allocated within large and complex open source software projects. It illuminates the role of different forms of “motivations-at-the-margin” in the micro-level resource allocation process of distributed and decentralized multi-agent engineering undertakings of this kind. We parameterize the model by isolating the parameter ranges in which it generates structures of code that share certain empirical regularities found to characterize actual projects. We find that, in this range, a variety of different motivations are represented within the community of developers. There is a correspondence between the indicated mixture of motivations and the distribution of avowed motivations for engaging in FLOSS development, found in the survey responses of developers who were participants in large projects.free and open source software (FLOSS), libre software engineering, maintainability, reliability, functional diversity, modularity, developers’ motivations, user-innovation, peer-esteem, reputational reward systems, agent-based modeling, stochastic simulation, stigmergy, morphogenesis.

Using system dynamics to teach about dependencies, correlation and systemic thinking on the software process workflows

It is important to count on tools to help software professionals to evaluate the software process and how it may be affected by factors related to its deployment. Simulation models are a valuable means to illustrate the behaviour of such a process since scenario generation supports the prediction of potential outcomes and the prevention of undesired scenarios which are harmful to the process and the company in charge of the project to be developed. This work explores the effectiveness of introducing system dynamics (SD) models in the software engineers' process of understanding, from a management perspective, the software process dynamics. The used SD simulation model of the software process emphasises the representation of an iterative process. The COCOMO II model drivers and their main attributes were used, providing a set of reference factors that affect the software process, the estimation of project cost and the effort required. A set of 59 junior software professionals with no previous knowledge about SD participated in a validation study. For simple predictive scenarios, there was no important improvement effect, while for more complex predictive scenarios SD helped them to guess better and provide a rationale for the expected behaviour of the software process performance.This work has beensupportedby the Madrid Government (Comunidad de Madrid‐Spain) under the Multiannual Agree-ment with UC3M in the line of Excellence of University Professors (EPUC3M17) and in the context of the V PRICIT (Regional Programme of Research and Technological Innovation

FLOSSSim: Understanding the Free/Libre Open Source Software (FLOSS) Development Process through Agent-Based Modeling

abstract: Free/Libre Open Source Software (FLOSS) is the product of volunteers collaborating to build software in an open, public manner. The large number of FLOSS projects, combined with the data that is inherently archived with this online process, make studying this phenomenon attractive. Some FLOSS projects are very functional, well-known, and successful, such as Linux, the Apache Web Server, and Firefox. However, for every successful FLOSS project there are 100's of projects that are unsuccessful. These projects fail to attract sufficient interest from developers and users and become inactive or abandoned before useful functionality is achieved. The goal of this research is to better understand the open source development process and gain insight into why some FLOSS projects succeed while others fail. This dissertation presents an agent-based model of the FLOSS development process. The model is built around the concept that projects must manage to attract contributions from a limited pool of participants in order to progress. In the model developer and user agents select from a landscape of competing FLOSS projects based on perceived utility. Via the selections that are made and subsequent contributions, some projects are propelled to success while others remain stagnant and inactive. Findings from a diverse set of empirical studies of FLOSS projects are used to formulate the model, which is then calibrated on empirical data from multiple sources of public FLOSS data. The model is able to reproduce key characteristics observed in the FLOSS domain and is capable of making accurate predictions. The model is used to gain a better understanding of the FLOSS development process, including what it means for FLOSS projects to be successful and what conditions increase the probability of project success. It is shown that FLOSS is a producer-driven process, and project factors that are important for developers selecting projects are identified. In addition, it is shown that projects are sensitive to when core developers make contributions, and the exhibited bandwagon effects mean that some projects will be successful regardless of competing projects. Recommendations for improving software engineering in general based on the positive characteristics of FLOSS are also presented.Dissertation/ThesisPh.D. Computer Science 201

Engineering simulations for cancer systems biology

Computer simulation can be used to inform in vivo and in vitro experimentation, enabling rapid, low-cost hypothesis generation and directing experimental design in order to test those hypotheses. In this way, in silico models become a scientific instrument for investigation, and so should be developed to high standards, be carefully calibrated and their findings presented in such that they may be reproduced. Here, we outline a framework that supports developing simulations as scientific instruments, and we select cancer systems biology as an exemplar domain, with a particular focus on cellular signalling models. We consider the challenges of lack of data, incomplete knowledge and modelling in the context of a rapidly changing knowledge base. Our framework comprises a process to clearly separate scientific and engineering concerns in model and simulation development, and an argumentation approach to documenting models for rigorous way of recording assumptions and knowledge gaps. We propose interactive, dynamic visualisation tools to enable the biological community to interact with cellular signalling models directly for experimental design. There is a mismatch in scale between these cellular models and tissue structures that are affected by tumours, and bridging this gap requires substantial computational resource. We present concurrent programming as a technology to link scales without losing important details through model simplification. We discuss the value of combining this technology, interactive visualisation, argumentation and model separation to support development of multi-scale models that represent biologically plausible cells arranged in biologically plausible structures that model cell behaviour, interactions and response to therapeutic interventions