System-level prognostics based on inoperability input-output model

International audienceNowadays, the modern industry is increasingly demanding the availability and reliability of production systems as well as the reduction of maintenance costs. The techniques to achieving these goals are recognized and discussed under the term of Prognostics and Health Management (PHM). However, the prognostics is often approached from a component point of view. The system-level prognostics (SLP), taking into account interdependencies and multi-interactions between system components, is still an underexplored area. Inspired from the inoperability input-output model (IIM), a new approach for SLP is proposed in this paper. The inoperability corresponds to the component’s degradation, i.e. the reduction of its performance in comparison to an ideal reference state. The interactions between component degradation and the effect of the environment are included when estimating the inoperability of components and also when predicting the system remaining useful life (SRUL). This approach can be applied to complex systems involving multi-heterogeneous components with a reasonable computational effort. Thus, it allows overcoming the lack of scope and scalability of the traditional approaches used in PHM. An illustrative example is presented and discussed in the paper to highlight the performance of the proposed approach

Supporting group maintenance through prognostics-enhanced dynamic dependability prediction

Condition-based maintenance strategies adapt maintenance planning through the integration of online condition monitoring of assets. The accuracy and cost-effectiveness of these strategies can be improved by integrating prognostics predictions and grouping maintenance actions respectively. In complex industrial systems, however, effective condition-based maintenance is intricate. Such systems are comprised of repairable assets which can fail in different ways, with various effects, and typically governed by dynamics which include time-dependent and conditional events. In this context, system reliability prediction is complex and effective maintenance planning is virtually impossible prior to system deployment and hard even in the case of condition-based maintenance. Addressing these issues, this paper presents an online system maintenance method that takes into account the system dynamics. The method employs an online predictive diagnosis algorithm to distinguish between critical and non-critical assets. A prognostics-updated method for predicting the system health is then employed to yield well-informed, more accurate, condition-based suggestions for the maintenance of critical assets and for the group-based reactive repair of non-critical assets. The cost-effectiveness of the approach is discussed in a case study from the power industry

An interpretable deep learning method for bearing fault diagnosis

Deep learning (DL) has gained popularity in recent years as an effective tool for classifying the current health and predicting the future of industrial equipment. However, most DL models have black-box components with an underlying structure that is too complex to be interpreted and explained to human users. This presents significant challenges when deploying these models for safety-critical maintenance tasks, where non-technical personnel often need to have complete trust in the recommendations these models give. To address these challenges, we utilize a convolutional neural network (CNN) with Gradient-weighted Class Activation Mapping (Grad-CAM) activation map visualizations to form an interpretable DL method for classifying bearing faults. After the model training process, we apply Grad-CAM to identify a training sample's feature importance and to form a library of diagnosis knowledge (or health library) containing training samples with annotated feature maps. During the model evaluation process, the proposed approach retrieves prediction basis samples from the health library according to the similarity of the feature importance. The proposed method can be easily applied to any CNN model without modifying the model architecture, and our experimental results show that this method can select prediction basis samples that are intuitively and physically meaningful, improving the model's trustworthiness for human users

System-level prognostics based on inoperability input-output model

Nowadays, the modern industry is increasingly demanding the availability and reliability of production systems as well as the reduction of maintenance costs. The techniques to achieving these goals are recognized and discussed under the term of Prognostics and Health Management (PHM). However, the prognostics is often approached from a component point of view. The system-level prognostics (SLP), taking into account interdependencies and multi-interactions between system components, is still an underexplored area. Inspired from the inoperability input-output model (IIM), a new approach for SLP is proposed in this paper. The inoperability corresponds to the component’s degradation, i.e. the reduction of its performance in comparison to an ideal reference state. The interactions between component degradation and the effect of the environment are included when estimating the inoperability of components and also when predicting the system remaining useful life (SRUL). This approach can be applied to complex systems involving multi-heterogeneous components with a reasonable computational effort. Thus, it allows overcoming the lack of scope and scalability of the traditional approaches used in PHM. An illustrative example is presented and discussed in the paper to highlight the performance of the proposed approach

Supporting group maintenance through prognostics-enhanced dynamic dependability prediction

Condition-based maintenance strategies adapt maintenance planning through the integration of online condition monitoring of assets. The accuracy and cost-effectiveness of these strategies can be improved by integrating prognostics predictions and grouping maintenance actions respectively. In complex industrial systems, however, effective condition-based maintenance is intricate. Such systems are comprised of repairable assets which can fail in different ways, with various effects, and typically governed by dynamics which include time-dependent and conditional events. In this context, system reliability prediction is complex and effective maintenance planning is virtually impossible prior to system deployment and hard even in the case of condition-based maintenance. Addressing these issues, this paper presents an online system maintenance method that takes into account the system dynamics. The method employs an online predictive diagnosis algorithm to distinguish between critical and non-critical assets. A prognostics-updated method for predicting the system health is then employed to yield well-informed, more accurate, condition-based suggestions for the maintenance of critical assets and for the group-based reactive repair of non-critical assets. The cost-effectiveness of the approach is discussed in a case study from the power industry

Prognostics and health management for maintenance practitioners - Review, implementation and tools evaluation.

In literature, prognostics and health management (PHM) systems have been studied by many researchers from many different engineering fields to increase system reliability, availability, safety and to reduce the maintenance cost of engineering assets. Many works conducted in PHM research concentrate on designing robust and accurate models to assess the health state of components for particular applications to support decision making. Models which involve mathematical interpretations, assumptions and approximations make PHM hard to understand and implement in real world applications, especially by maintenance practitioners in industry. Prior knowledge to implement PHM in complex systems is crucial to building highly reliable systems. To fill this gap and motivate industry practitioners, this paper attempts to provide a comprehensive review on PHM domain and discusses important issues on uncertainty quantification, implementation aspects next to prognostics feature and tool evaluation. In this paper, PHM implementation steps consists of; (1) critical component analysis, (2) appropriate sensor selection for condition monitoring (CM), (3) prognostics feature evaluation under data analysis and (4) prognostics methodology and tool evaluation matrices derived from PHM literature. Besides PHM implementation aspects, this paper also reviews previous and on-going research in high-speed train bogies to highlight problems faced in train industry and emphasize the significance of PHM for further investigations

Reliability model of a component equipped with PHM capabilities

We propose an analytic, time-variant model that conservatively evaluates the increase in reliability achievable when a component is equipped with a Prognostics and Health Management system of known performance metrics. The reliability model builds on metrics of literature and is applicable to different industrial contexts. A simulated case study concerning crack propagation in a mechanical component is considered to validate the proposed model

Parallel simulation based adaptive prediction for equipment remaining useful life

The latest demands for remaining useful life (RUL) prediction are online prediction, real-time prediction and adaptive prediction. This paper addresses the demands of RUL prediction and proposes a novel framework of parallel simulation based adaptive prediction for equipment RUL. In the framework, a Wiener state space model (WSSM) is developed to achieve the aim, which considers the whole historical data and monitoring noise. Driven by the online observation data, the degradation state is estimated by the Kalman filter based data assimilation and the WSSM parameters are updated by the expectation maximum algorithm. An analytical RUL distribution considering the distribution of the degradation state is obtained based on the concept of the first hitting time. A case study for GaAs laser device is provided to substantiate the superiority of the proposed method compared with the competing method of traditional Wiener process. The results show that the parallel simulation method can provide better RUL prognostic accuracy

A decision-making approach for the health-aware energy management of ship hybrid power plants

Although autonomous shipping has attracted increasing interest, its further develop-ment requires innovative solutions to operate autonomous ships without the direct in-tervention of human operators. This study aims to develop a health-aware energy management (HAEM) approach for ship hybrid power plants, integrating the health monitoring information from reliability tools with the energy management tools. This approach employs the equivalent consumption minimisation strategy (ECMS) along with a Dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), as well as the utopia decision-making meth-od and a model for the ship hybrid power plant. The HAEM approach is demonstrated for a parallel hybrid power plant of a pilot boat considering realistic operating profiles. The results demonstrate that by employing HAEM approach for the investigated ship power plant operating for 300 hours reduces its failure rate almost fourfold at the cost of fuel consumption increase of around 1.5 %, compared to the respective operation with the ECMS. This study is expected to contribute towards the development of su-pervisory control of autonomous power plants